Many say the Bulldogs have the best forward pack in the NRL in 2013. Some prefer the Paul Gallen-led Sharks.
Some also mentioned Manly and the Raiders. But give me the North Queensland Cowboys any day.
Add the best fullback and pivot combination in the NRL and you have a formidable team.
However, with a 15% win rate in Sydney since 2008, the Cowboys must improve mentally if they hope to win the big one in 2013.
We all remember how Manly bundled them out of the semis last year in controversial circumstances. This did not help their poor record in Sydney finals since 2004 – only three wins from nine games (33%).
On this basis, the Cowboys should be around $6.5 every time they play in Sydney and $3.00 every time they play a final. But of course, that won’t happen.
We should always respect stats, but the Cowboys showed persuasive signs late in 2013 that they have overcome their hoodoo which included a win over the Sharks at Cronulla, then that close call against the Sea Eagles.
They also defeated the premiers, the Storm, in Melbourne. This gave them the equal fourth-best away win record last year with seven wins from twelve games.
The Cowboys have “trialled” Ray Thompson and Michael Morgan (the latter of whom received a fractured jaw and is out for four weeks) at halfback since moving their champion Johnathan Thurston to second receiver.
While both have done a commendable job, Lui finally gets his chance to show everyone how good he really is in the number seven jersey.
Make no mistake, Lui is very special and if Thurston does leave the Cowboys after this season then the cupboard will not be completely bare when it comes to organisation and skills.
Thurston is the best player I have seen since Andrew Johns in 2005. While I am not suggesting that Lui is in that class, but he is only 22 and has already played 44 first grade games (including an enforced twelve months suspension).
If Lui can play to his potential and stay out of trouble, then the Cowboys will be just as potent on the right side with Brent Tate as they will with Thurston terrorising on the left.
His ability to be able to play with no more baggage hanging over his head is a massive bonus for the Cowboys.
Thurston and whoever wins the halfback spot will have the luxury of playing behind two champion Australian props in James Tamou and Matt Scott. Between them, they averaged a remarkable 300 metres each week in 2012.
The Cowboys need to improve their poor error count as they continually turned over possession at crucial times, something premiers the Melbourne Storm rarely did in 2012.
As good as the Cowboys forwards are they can let in soft tries late in each half when the big guys get tired. This happens especially in the middle third of the ground and near their try line where they were equal last in the NRL in allowing tries from dummy-half.
This is not good enough if they are serious about improving on 2012.
Staking advice:
The market rates them on the fourth line of betting with the Sharks, Manly and the Roosters. They are behind the Storm, the Bulldogs and the Rabbitohs, which represents excellent value.
Likely run on 13 for round one
1. Matt Bowen
2. Kalifa FiaFia-Loa
3. Kane Linnett
4. Brent Tate
5. Ash Graham,
6. Johnathan Thurston
7. Robert Lui*
8. James Tamou
9. Ray Thompson
10. Matthew Scott
11. Glen Hall
12. Jason Taumalolo
13. Dallas Johnson
Reckon you can pick the winning team? Build your own dream team with Draftstars daily fantasy and compete on any match. For great odds on the NRL head on over to PlayUp. Imagine what you could be buying instead. Set a deposit limit.
There may not be a mid-season firing, but Todd Payten is a top contender to be under the most pressure during the off-season.
Bold talk for a man who only started playing rugby league in 2016!
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