With Bradley Wiggins and Ryder Hesjedal abandoning, Mark Cavendish reaching a new milestone and Cadel Evans emerging as Vincenzo Nibali’s most likely obstacle for the maglia rosa, the last six days of weather-affected racing in Italy have certainly thrown up a few cracking talking points.
It says a lot about the standard of competition at the Giro if an ageing rider, who has supposedly entered merely to ride back into some form ahead of the Tour de France, can find himself in the reckoning not only for a podium finish but perhaps the whole title with just six days of racing remaining.
But that is where we’re at with this increasingly intriguing 96th edition of La Corsa Rosa.
Australian veteran Evans has defied popular opinion (none more so than my own) by returning to the kind of form that saw him win the Tour in 2011.
Then, Evans left it until the penultimate stage before turning over a deficit to Andy Schleck in the final time trial before riding into Paris with the fabled maillot jaune over his barrel chest and broad shoulders.
In this year’s Giro, the deciding mountain time trial comes four days from the finish – and Evans may well have to rely on grinding down his opposition on the famous climbs of the Passo di Gavia, the Passo dello Stelvio and the unforgiving Passo di Giau on two back-to-back mountain tests in the Dolomites ahead of the ceremonial ride into Brescia.
Can he do it? I’m not so sure.
Evans’ fans are quick to point out he rode the uphill segment of the first time trial in the race’s opening phase faster than anyone else. But these past six days in the Friulian mountains and Alps have seen Evans do no more than – at best – ride in the wheel of his main rivals, while seeing Nibali extend his lead to 1min 26secs on general classification.
As Evans himself said, “The first week was good – a little above expectations – but the second week was slightly below expectations. Now we’re in second but with quite a big time gap to make up. But it can all turn around in a tough three-week race like this one.”
The only riders to have troubled Nibali in the mountains are the Colombians Rigoberto Uran and Carlos Betancur.
Uran, now third at 2:46, won stage 10 with a superb solo surge off the front – but the dynamic of the race was different back then. Wiggins, rather than Uran, was the danger man from Sky, while the London 2012 road race silver medallist was significantly down on the standings for Astana to have made the calculation and not bothered to chase him down.
Betancur has also been consistently brilliant in the mountains on his way to three runner-up finishes – but the Ag2R-La Mondiale climber is more motivated by white than pink: the 23-year-old now leads Poland’s Rafal Majka by five seconds in the youth standings, with both riders more than five minutes down on GC.
There has been talk of a Colombian alliance forming in a bid to increase the nation’s chances of further stage wins (Betancur must be chomping at the bit to finally get that elusive maiden win) and also the overall win for Uran.
Colombian cycling legend Fabio Parra – who won two stages on the Tour and three on the Vuelta back in the 80s and 90s – has taken to Twitter to reach out to Sky pair Uran and Sergio Henao, as well as Betancur, Lampre’s Jose Serpa, and Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte, Darwin Atapuma and Jarlinson Pantano.
“With three days in the mountains, good weather, sun and a Colombian alliance there is even the possibility of Rigoberto Uran winning Giro d’Italia,” he said.
“You have to take advantage of the mountains. A stage win, overall win or jersey success requires and alliance of all the Colombians in the Giro.”
But it will take more than an alliance, it seems. The way Nibali is riding, the 28-year-old Italian will need to suffer the kind of off-days that plagued Wiggins and Hesjedal earlier in the race – and arguably, you could say those riders’ off-days and illnesses stemmed in part (certainly psychologically) from the fact they had already lost significant time to Nibali.
The way things are, it’s as hard to imagine Nibali having an off-day as it is Evans, Uran or Mauro Santambrogio taking enough time from him in any of the remaining three mountain stages – including the uphill ITT.
What’s more, with Sky’s presence having tailed off somewhat since the departure of their talisman Wiggins, Astana have looked very much like the race’s dominant unit. The way they dictated play on both the Telegraph and Galibier on Sunday was impressive.
Finishing runner-up to Nibali would be no failure for Evans, however. On the contrary, the 36-year-old has certainly done enough to underline that it is he – and not Tejay van Garderen – who should lead BMC going into the Tour come 29th June.
Granted, van Garderen was fabulous in winning the Tour of California last week; but a three-week Grand Tour is a different prospect entirely.
One senses Evans is still not riding at his peak – and yet he’s six days away from a podium finish in what may emerge as 2013’s hardest Grand Tour. This should be enough to prove to the doubters there’s still life in the old dog yet.
Let’s look back at the last six days and ahead at the final six days of this year’s race…
Stage 10: Uran leads Colombian one-two
A bitter-sweet day for Team Sky in the Friulian mountains sees designated Sky team leader Bradley Wiggins lose time in the mountains, as Rigoberto Uran solos clear on the Altopiano del Montasio to take a maiden Grand Tour stage victory ahead of compatriot Carlos Betancur.
Vincenzo Nibali tightens his grip on the pink jersey with a sprint for third place and more bonus seconds in the final intermediate sprint just 5km from the finish.
But it’s a day to forget for Ryder Hesjedal, who cracks on the first of two climbs and concedes a whopping 21 minutes.
Stage 11: Garmin pick-up after Hesjedal let-down
Ramunas Navardauskas gives Garmin-Sharp something to cheer when soloing clear of BMC’s Daniel Oss on the second of two climbs ahead of the summit finish in Vajont.
Lithuania’s third ever stage win on the Giro is a welcome tonic to Navardauskas’s team-mates following the implosion of defending champion Hesjedal one day earlier.
But the race is dealt its first scandal when Frenchman Sylvain Georges withdraws following the emergence of a positive test for the stimulant Heptaminol – a vasodilator which helps relax the blood vessels and is sometimes used in the treatment of low blood pressure.
Stage 12: Centurion Cavendish
Sick and out-of-sorts, Bradley Wiggins loses touch with the peloton on another Apocalyptic day, the Tour de France champion crossing the line in sodden Treviso surrounded by Sky teammates more than three minutes down on stage winner Mark Cavendish, who sprints to his 100th career victory.
A five-man break – four of whom came to grief on the same slippery bend earlier in the stage – are swept up inside the final kilometre as Cavendish enjoys a superb ride by his Omega Pharma-Quick Step train to take his third scalp of the stage ahead of Nacer Bouhanni and Luka Mezgec.
Stage 13: Wiggo and Ryder bid arrivederci
Wiggins and Hesjedal both withdraw from the race ahead of the stage after losing their respective battles against illness. By a cruel twist of fate, the longest stage of the Giro is actually played out under sun, blue skies and only the occasional spattering of drizzle, as a seven-man break forge a 13-minute lead over the pack.
But hefty pace-setting by Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Cannondale sees the gap tumble before a series of counter attacks over the lumpy roads of the Barolo wine region.
Giampaolo Caruso (Katusha) is reeled in with just 1.5km remaining before Cavendish sprints from far back to take his fourth of the race.
Stage 14: Santambrogio pips Nibali for win
With live TV images restricted to the last 400m of racing on the category one Jafferau climb, the bright yellow Vini Fantini jersey of Mauro Samtanbrogio emerges through the mist alongside the pink of Vincenzo Nibali as the two Italians ride clear ahead of the penultimate hairpin bend.
Nibali gifts the stage to his compatriot but increases his lead to 1min 26secs over Cadel Evans after another day of hellishly wet and cold conditions in northern Italy.
Dutchman Robert Gesink sinks out of the reckoning by shipping four minutes on the only climb of the day.
Prior to the stage, Enrico Battaglin is the only rider other than Rigoberto Uran in the top 49 on GC to have won a stage in the race – but the Italian crashes out with broken ribs in an incident that also forces out Astana’s Alessandro Vanotti with a broken collarbone.
Stage 15: Visconti wins on shortened Galibier
Italian Giovanni Visconti defies the rain, snow and main GC favourites to ride the entire final climb of Les Granges du Galibier alone before taking a win alongside the famous Marco Pantani memorial monument 4km short of the snow-capped summit of the Col du Galibier proper.
The first climb of the stage – the Col du Mont Cenis – is neutralised by a peloton worn out by the constant battering of the elements, while the battle for the pink jersey is a stalemate with the race’s top five riders all crossing the line in one group 49 seconds down on Movistar’s Visconti.
Predictions for the final week of the Giro
Last week I didn’t do so well, predicting a three-way battle between Nibali, Wiggins and Gesink.
I said Sky would have three riders in the top five (in fact they have just the two in the top 16) and erroneously opined Evans would drop out of the top five after popping on the Galibier (it was Gesink who fulfilled this role, not the increasingly impressive Aussie veteran).
I said Colombia would have a win but claimed it wouldn’t be a rider from Sky. I also said Hesjedal would pick up a stage scalp to turn his race around. Oh dear.
But I did say Stefano Pirazzi would retrain the blue jersey – while I guessed Cavendish’s third win in Treviso (although claimed Elia Viviani would deny him a fourth in Cherasco).
So, take the following final week predictions with a hefty pinch of salt…
– Nibali will win the mountain time trial and one of the other deciding mountain stages to increase his advantage to over three minutes and secure the maglia rosa.
– The Colombian alliance will happen but it will never fully come into fruition, with Betancur falling short once again with another second place finish.
– Michele Scarponi, Robert Gesink and Dominico Pozzovivo will do their utmost best to win a stage – but none of them will succeed.
– Stefano Pirazzi won’t win a stage but he will win the blue jersey.
– Betancur and Majka will be separated by just a handful of seconds in the white jersey competition.
– Cavendish will start and end the week with victories in Ivrea and Brescia – plus the red jersey.
– Evans will finish third on the final podium behind winner Nibali and runner-up Santambrogio.
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