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Highlighted by three Group 1s and champions everywhere, Day 1 of Royal Ascot showcases the best of global racing each year. Join us for live updates and a blog as we bring you coverage of the first day of the Royal meeting from 10:30pm AEST.
There’s so much excitement as we look towards Day 1 of Royal Ascot. The World Cup winner Animal Kingdom is set to make his final racetrack appearance in the Queen Anne (11:30pm).
In the King’s Stand (12:05am), South African super sprinter Shea Shea, probably the second-best sprinter in the world behind Japan’s Lord Kanaloa, takes on Australian Newmarket Handicap winner Shamexpress as well as the best speedsters from Europe.
And the most anticipated clash of entire five-day meeting is set to occur in the St James’s Palace (12:45am) over the mile for the three-year olds with Magician, the Irish 2000 Guineas winner, clashing with English Guineas winner Dawn Approach who is backing up after his disastrous last-place finish in the Epsom Derby a few weeks back.
Queen Anne (straight mile, Group 1, weight-for-age)
Australian owned and American trained Animal Kingdom enters this race as an odds-favourite – the racing world will be watching and the expectation is an Aus-American victory with Animal Kingdom.
Animal Kingdom was dominant in winning the Dubai World Cup (2000m) on the all-weather surface in March when he controlled the race from outside the lead.
He is effective on turf – when he won the 2011 Kentucky Derby (2000m) it was his first start away from grass. In last November’s Breeder’s Cup Mile (also turf), he showcased the speed required to win at the mile, when darting through a late gap to take second.
Some English pundits have pointed to a lack of early pace in this year’s Queen Anne working against Animal Kingdom but in my opinion he is practically bombproof. If it’s made a staying test, his 2000m form will come to the fore and if it’s a ‘sit and sprint’ he has shown he has the turn of foot to do the job.
Animal Kingdom has worked well on the undulating Ascot circuit and with this race being his sole aim for the last three months, I expect him to win comfortably.
If there is to be an upset the bookies say it will come from English four-year old Declaration of War. I’m not a massive fan of this bloke but he is a winner of five from seven including once at Group 3 level.
In his stiffest test, in the key English lead-up, the Lockinge (mile) at Newbury he was a weakening fifth behind four-length winner Farhh last month.
Farhh was often seen finishing four and five lengths adrift from So You Think and Frankel last season, filling minor placings in mid-to-late season English Group 1s.
If there is to be an upset, I think it could come from Elusive Kate who was a Group 1 winner in France over the mile against her own sex last season.
King’s Stand (1000m, Group 1, weight-for-age)
Australia is bidding for its fifth King’s Stand with Shamexpress. The Europeans, who make up the bulk of the field, are an over-rated bunch in my opinion and that paves the way for a South Africa-Australia quinella.
Shea Shea is an impressive sprinter and deserves favouritism for this time-honoured dash. He was brilliant when taking the Al Qouz (1000m, Group 1, won by Australian mare Ortensia last season) in track-record time on World Cup night.
He will sit behind the speed before making his run in the final two furlongs. I expect Shea Shea to be in front as the field climbs uphill with 100m to go.
Hopefully, a taxing early pace takes the edge off Shea Shea thereby presenting a blousing opportunity for Shamexpress who surprised the frontrunners when coming from last to win the Newmarket Handicap (1200m) at Flemington with the bottom-weight in March.
Interestingly – possibly crucially – Shamexpress and Shea Shea are drawn on the far side of the track in barriers 3 and 5 respectively. That poses some sort of danger because these two horses will struggle to win if they are drawn away from the speed.
If the leaders race on the opposite (Stand) side of the track, Shea Shea and Shamexpress won’t have ‘the cart’ required to drag them into proceedings and we could be looking a result dominated by the locals.
The best of the Europeans is three-year old Reckless Abandon who has a Royal Ascot victory next to his name but he is no superstar and lands in the highest-pressure race he has contested.
When placed under pressure Reckless Abandon has a tendency to veer off a straight course and at international Group 1 level that will almost signal his demise.
The vulnerability of the locals was highlighted in the Temple Stakes (1000m, Group 2) at Haydock when eight-year old Kingsgate Native upstaged by his younger and more fancied rivals (including Reckless Abandon).
The fact that I had a few dollars on Kingsgate Native that night indicates how average I think the European sprint brigade is.
The way I see it, if everything goes to plan, Shamexpress will measure up to this level and will have his chance to upstage Shea Shea late in proceedings. Let’s hope the Aussie brings his A-game because this is a winnable race.
St James’s Palace (mile, Group 1, three-year olds)
What a clash we have here – two superstars both trying to overcome adversary to taste Group 1 glory in front of the Queen.
In the royal blue corner we have Godolphin’s Dawn Approach, the English Guineas (mile) winner coming off a horror last-place finish in the Epsom Derby (2400m) on June 1.
And in the navy blue corner there is Coolmore’s Magician, the brilliant Irish Guineas (mile) winner who is in doubt to take his place after sustaining a knock and some bruising in his preparation for this race.
If Magician is at full strength – and trainer Aiden O’Brien has given his colt a full bill of health despite the setback – I think he’ll beat Dawn Approach because he’s got less holes in his game.
Magician is a really tough miler. In the Irish Guineas he profited from a red-hot speed, which he was fast enough to sit off, before powering away from his rivals.
Dawn Approach was fast enough to win the Coventry over 1200m last season but he couldn’t stay the Derby trip of 2400m when he was too headstrong. He looks to be a genuine miler – and a very good one at that – his win in the Guineas at Newmarket was authoritative.
The more I think about it, the more I believe that Magician is a better version of Dawn Approach. Magician has good early speed, can accelerate off a fast tempo and sustain top speed over a middle-distance trip.
Similarly, Dawn Approach has enough speed to race close to the lead and has a good turn of foot but his stamina will limit him to a mile or maybe a soft 2000m.
He can’t sustain his top speed for as long as Magician (who has a 2100m victory next to his name). And I wonder how much sting the Derby preparation has taken out of Dawn Approach.
If there is early pace and Magician is over his ‘knock’ I think he’ll be too good for Dawn Approach – and I must admit that viewpoint is in the minority.
If Magician is off his game however, Dawn Approach should win because he’s got the makings of a champion miler and is arguably the best three-year old in the world.
I hope both colts race well because this could be a memorable clash.
Tips
Queen Anne – Animal Kingdom
King’s Stand – Shea Shea and Shamexpress to fight it out
St James’s Palace – Magician
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