British and Irish Lions coach Warren Gatland has retreated into a comfort zone in his selection of 10 Welsh starters in the series decider against Australia in Sydney on Saturday.
At the same time, he has caused a media and political storm in Ireland by dropping the talismanic Brian O’Driscoll from the match 23.
Both decisions will cost the Lions the series. They will leave Gatland wondering what he was thinking, and the legion of travelling fans pondering what might have been after the Lions had drawn first blood in the series.
In hindsight, the cracks started showing last week when Gatland made five changes – most unexpected or questionable – for the second Test. This included the dropping of Welsh scrumhalf Mike Phillips and in-form winger Alex Cuthbert.
It was a ‘play-safe’ selection intended to save the series rather than grabbing it by the scruff of the neck with a settled match 23.
With even more changes made for the decider, in pure rugby terms, the series will be lost on poor, inconsistent and ill-considered selection. Nothing more, nothing less.
Come Saturday, English, Irish and Scottish players in the squad will in effect be watching a Test between Australia and Wales, minues the red socks and leeks.
Even worse for them is that Australia will take the spoils and stage one of the greatest comebacks in Lions tour history.
While Gatland has defended the selection by saying “they are all Lions” history cannot be denied.
Here are the facts:
Eight of the 10 Welsh starters were involved in the 3-0 series defeat in Australia in 2012, four played in all three Tests.
Australia have won their last eight Test clashes against Wales.
Australia have won 11 out of the 12 Tests they have played against Wales on Australian soil.
Wales last won a Test in Australia in June, 1969.
The last time Wales won a Test against Australia was in Cardiff in November 2008.
The 2012 Test series between Australia and Wales, played out in the same sequence of venues as the Lions tour, was closely contested. Australia won the opener in Brisbane 27-19, the second in Melbourne 25-23 and the last in Sydney 20-19.
There was little to choose between the two sides in 2012 – as there has been in the Lions series – but Australia will take a clear psychological edge into Saturday’s Test.
No doubt, Gatland is trying to use some psychology of his own to motivate his Welsh boys to make amends for 2012, but he has forgotten that they represent a broader rugby constituency. That is his fatal flaw.
It’s more than likely the selection gamble, especially the complete omission of O’Driscoll, will come back to haunt Gatland for the rest of his life.
If, somehow, it pays off, he might be hailed as first successful Lions coach since 1997, except perhaps in Ireland.
To allow any chance of that happening, Gatland and his management should ask the Australian Rugby Union if the Lions can sing Tom Jones’ ‘Delilah’ before ‘Advance Australia Fair’ come Saturday.
* Anthony Mackaiser was media manager for the Springboks for the 2-1 Series win over the Lions in 2009.
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