Do we rest, or do we play? It’s the predicament facing a number of coaches this weekend and, regardless of which way they ultimately decide to go, the consequences will follow them throughout the finals.
With wins not as critical for some teams as they have been each weekend for the previous five months, a handful of coaches have the option of giving some of their battle-weary stars a week’s rest before the serious football begins.
If those rested players come out fresh and play starring roles the following week, it will have been a coaching master stroke.
If they don’t however, the critics will say it’s because they missed that run in the final round of the home-and-away season.
Alternatively, if the aren’t rested this week, and then win the next week, the coach will be applauded for his decision to keep the team at full strength and playing hard footy right into the finals.
If they don’t rest, then lose, the coach will be caned for not taking the opportunity to freshen their tired legs.
There really is no universally correct decision, but the decision will be judged when the outcome of games are revealed a week, or even two, later.
A coach simply has to be guided by how his players are feeling, and what his medical staff are telling him, and anyway, most players don’t want a rest.
Either way, there could be some interesting reading when the teams come out later this afternoon.
Swans coach John Longmire is one with a conundrum in selecting his side to host Hawthorn tomorrow night at ANZ Stadium.
Apart from the usual late-season niggles, a few Swans suffered injuries last week against Geelong, and the rest would probably do them some good.
Longmire could also consider bringing in one or more of his previously injured players – notably Lewis Jetta – for a hitout against the Hawks.
Win and the Swans will finish fourth and most probably play Geelong in Melbourne the following week. Lose and the Swans will finish fourth and play Hawthorn at the MCG the following week.
The Hawks have to win to secure top spot, so there will be no resting or complacency from them.
But it’s not the same story in other games.
Port Adelaide are seventh. Beat Carlton and they will be seventh. Lose to Carlton and they will still be seventh. But who will they play?
Both Richmond and Collingwood can finish fifth or sixth. Sixth means a clash with Port. Fifth means a match against which ever teams sneaks into eighth, with the two favourites for that spot being Carlton or North Melbourne.
It’s been suggested that Richmond, with a poor record against Carlton (they have won just one of the past 11), would be better off losing to Essendon, then hoping to finish sixth and play Port Adelaide.
But they could also lose and still finish fifth. That will all depend on Collingwood, who have the drop on their rival with the last game of the round, against North Melbourne, which has any meaning.
If Carlton beat Port on Saturday, the Blues will be in and the eight will be finalised, and by the time Collingwood run out onto the MCG on Sunday, they will know exactly who they will play with a win and with a loss.
While I’m not suggesting they would consider intentionally losing, coach Nathan Buckley could rest numerous players if winning is not everything.
If Carlton have lost though, then much more hinges on the Collingwood game, because a Pies loss to North Melbourne would see the Kangaroos hop over the Mick Malthouse-coached Blues and into the eight.
For former Pies mentor Malthouse, that would be rubbing salt into the wound.
If Hawthorn have sewn up top spot with a win against Sydney, that result wouldn’t mean Geelong coach Chris Scott could rest a few of his players. The Cats need to win to stay ahead of Fremantle and claim second spot and a home final.
Lose and the Dockers win, and the Cats will head to Perth to meet Freo in week one of the finals.
In the other final round games, Adelaide and West Coast meet in Perth on Saturday night, and while both could mathematically still make the eight, if Carlton have won that afternoon, then it’s a dead rubber.
On Sunday, the Bulldogs are expected to add another win to their season’s tally by beating whipping boys Melbourne.
And then there is the battle of the new boys, Gold Coast and GWS.
The Gold Coast will be looking to register win number eight in their best season of their short history, while the Giants will be hoping for their second win of the season, the same number they achieved in their debut year.
But what could also be at stake for the Giants is the wooden spoon – or more precisely, escaping it.
If the Giants happen to beat the Suns and the Demons get beaten by the Bulldogs, GWS and Melbourne would both finish on eight competition points, and then, depending on the margins in both games – and the Giants don’t need outlandish results to move ahead of the Dees on percentage – the spoon winner would be decided.
Beating the Suns last year for the club’s first ever win has been the most significant result on the field for the Giants.
Beating Gold Coast again, and avoiding the wooden spoon – in Kevin Sheedy’s last game – well, there would be some boisterous signing in the sheds at Metricon after that sort of win.
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