The New Zealand Breakers have given fans of black and crystal blue persuasion plenty to be happy about the past few years.
Three titles in three years is living the high life in sporting terms.
But those fans have been confronted with an unfamiliar feeling in the opening rounds of the NBL season – their team has been more bad than good.
And this week it’s led to the first import sacking of the season, with Darnell Lazare given the flick and Gary Wilkinson returning.
How did the reigning champs get to this point so quickly?
Round 1 went to plan with a comfortable win over Wollongong. But that Hawks side had days earlier lost an import, never played at Vector Arena before and had Oscar Forman in major foul trouble.
The next two weeks revealed a bit more. They ballsed up the Sunshine Swing losing to Cairns and, far more remarkably, Townsville.
Then last week Perth came to town and dished out a 96-89 defeat. It snapped a 16-game home win streak and pushed their record to 1-3 (after not a single win in the pre-season Blitz tournament).
Right now, the Breakers are last on the ladder for the first time in eight years.
Perhaps this was to be somewhat expected after losing their coach, Andrej Lemanis, to the Boomers job and the league MVP, Cedric Jackson, to Europe.
But with assistant Dean Vickerman taking over, the coaching change was meant to be a smooth transition.
And thus far, new point guard Kerron Johnson is doing a pretty decent job of filling the Jackson void. (The Breakers, it seems, know how to find a good point guard.)
So, while assist numbers have rather understandably dropped off a bit, the issues apparently lie beyond the expected.
As Andrew Price notes on his fantastic Lob Pass to Abercrombie blog, “Last season the Breakers outscored their opponents on average by 11 points every 100 possessions, this season however the Breakers have allowed 124 points per 100 possessions while only scoring 124.3.”
Their offensive rating is actually up this year and although that has been helped by the league’s officiating changes, the reason they’ve been brought back to the pack can be largely pinned on defence.
There’s also been a drop-off in (mainly offensive) rebounds.
This draws attention to the other big change over the off-season, a switch of imports at the back-up centre spot. The Breakers dumped Will Hudson to recruit ex-King Lazare.
It was always a curious move.
In 2012-13, Lazare averaged 7.35 rebounds, 0.81 steals, 0.65 blocks and 11.2 points. Hudson averaged 4.73 rebounds, 0.46 steals, 0.5 blocks and 8.1 points.
But Lazare’s numbers were those of a starter playing 26 minutes. The bench role in New Zealand saw Hudson play 17 minutes a game.
So when you adjust for the discrepancy in minutes, very little actually separated them based on last season’s numbers.
What the Breakers were essentially banking on is getting more out of Lazare while he was on the court than Sydney did.
It wasn’t happening. Obviously four games is a small sample size, but in 2013-14 Lazare was averaging 4.5 rebounds (only 0.5 offensive), 0.25 steals, 1 block and 4.5 points.
So it wasn’t terribly surprising when, on Monday, he was officially made the scapegoat.
The man taking his place is ironically the man Hudson took the place of, Wilkinson.
This is a clear upgrade. Wilkinson was a huge part of the Breakers winning their first two championships and only parted with the club due to the (since validated) notion Alex Pledger was deserving of a promotion to the starting line-up.
But that scenario raises a fresh question – where does Wilkinson fit now?
Is he simply there to play the 15-20 minute back-up role, or is there room for him and Pledger on the same court after all?
These are the queries that hang over the move, and more specifically Vickerman, which will be put under the microscope tonight against the Adelaide 36ers in Auckland then again on Sunday against Wollongong.
Still, Wilkinson seems to genuinely love playing for the Breakers, presumably in whatever role he’s given, and doesn’t appear to have gone backwards since his departure, winning a title and MVP award in Estonia.
So the question isn’t whether or not the Breakers will improve from their current position, but whether they’ll improve enough to return to title contention.
Given the club’s recent history, sceptics would be advised to tread lightly.
The Sydney Kings have successfully defended their NBL crown.
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