For Australia to win this series, England must lose two of Stuart Broad, James Anderson and Chris Tremlett to injury in the next month.
That’s right. Australia must count on injury to retain the Ashes.
And I must say both Tremlett and Anderson looked proppy and sore at times on Wednesday, so it is not out of the question.
Australia would have likely had James Pattinson and Mitchell Starc in the 12 if they were fit. I bet they’d give a few bob to have Ricky Ponting and Mike Hussey in the line-up too.
But rather than look for hopeless impossibilities, Australia are going to have to write their own destiny, and the kind of stuff which Brad Haddin and Mitch Johnson performed will help immensely.
I could not have been more impressed with Johnson. He picked the right ball to hit almost every time until he was castled. He judged length and line and committed to his shots beautifully.
This was the best I have ever seen him bat, given the quality of the bowling.
Haddin was responsibility itself.
True, the wicket got more even and flatter. The ball got old and softer. The Poms could not reverse it. Graeme Swann could not turn it. And the bounce got lower and slower.
That said, clearly the flush out of Australia’s first six batsmen was with the two new balls was the determining factor on the day.
Steve Smith got a jaffer and Dave Warner looked very good until he threw it all away.
Shane Watson was struggling with his running, but looked okay… just okay!
Michael Clarke, Chris Rogers and George Bailey have a lot of work to do.
Now let’s be clear. This was England’s day. And there is just one reason.
They had Australia 6/130. That’s why they hold a mental edge.
When the ball is new and swinging and bouncing, and with Anderson, Broad and Tremlett at their peak, Australia’s batsmen looked vulnerable against the new ball.
Not so when the ball ceased moving and all England’s bowlers had had two trips to the crease.
Notice that Australia scored 140 runs for the loss of two wickets after Johnson came in.
Swann, Tremlett and Anderson all got caned. Only Broad looked menacing all day long.
This is the best cricket wicket for batting in the world.
If you can blunt England’s pace, bounce and swing for 20-25 overs, you will mount a total in excess of 300. Perhaps 400. Even 500.
That won’t happen in this first innings but all Australia’s batsmen now know what they have to do.
This is not about looking pretty and scoring at four an over. This is about guts, determination, time at the wicket, turning over the strike, batting in teams, batting in partnerships, running well between wickets, batting for a day and a half.
It can be done, but only if the Australian top seven apply themselves to leave the bouncing ball, leave the swinging ball outside off and guard their stumps like there is no tomorrow. Like the poles are Fort Knox.
The top seven need the fortitude, the guts, the brains and the ability to take it to England’s four – to blunt them first, then attack them.
Bear in mind, England have to bat yet, but looking at the track, 450-500 is not beyond them.
Forget about the ‘Brisbane Bogey’. That’s ancient history. England will flog us unless we hold our end up with the bat.
I hope I’m wrong and England falls in a heap to Siddle, Harris, Johnson and Lyon… But I have my doubts.
But thank goodness for Johnson and Haddin. Without them, this Test would already be over.
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