While I would never encourage gambling nor suggest that anyone who doesn’t gamble should start, I would like to share my reasons for just putting on a sizeable bet that Australia will win 5-0 at 20/1.
I would also add that I am a Brit (although I’ll point out my Scottish place of birth in these situations).
I wrote a couple of articles a while back that were laughed out of court that England had large chunks of luck at home and that Australia were favourites Down Under.
I pointed out that the batting was atrocious and that the weather was hugely favourable. The batting is the same but the weather is not.
My reasoning that England could lose was premised on Australia’s record at the Gabba – they duly won and that England would almost certainly lose in Perth, I see no reason to change that view.
That would give Oz a 2-0 head start, not bad when you are only playing five matches.
While 5-0 may seem extreme, for me it could come down simply to Adelaide as if Australia were to win there (the new drop in pitch is a bit of a lottery granted) and they win in Perth as I believe they will, the Ashes would already be over before we get to Boxing Day and then the SCG.
I’m going to both Perth and Sydney so I desperately hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think I am.
England’s batting is hopeless right now and any confidence the team had (to me at least) has been shattered.
Australia is not the place to be if you’re searching for confidence or form.
Unless there are weather issues, I see every match as being as a result and I honestly can’t say that England would be favourites for any match now given how hopelessly outclassed they were in Brisbane.
I think my 20-1 on 5-0 therefore looks great value.
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