Australia and England stand on the edge of divergent fates as they go through final preparations before the third Ashes Test starts tomorrow.
Should Australia win, they will have wrested back the trophy after three series of English dominance. England must win to remain in contention.
It is the toughest challenge this English team has faced. Coming back from a Test defeat to win 2-1 in India was huge, but a trip to Australia is as confounding for most visiting sides, and 2-0 down in a five-Test series is a mountain to climb.
Not only that, but England must win at the venue least suited to them, and most suited to their destroyer thus far in this series, Mitchell Johnson.
For a bowler known as erratic, Johnson has a stunning WACA record of 36 wickets from five matches, at an average of 19.66.
Ryan Harris’ two matches have given him 11 at 15.72. David Warner likes it too: he smashed 180 from 159 balls against India here two summers ago, which remains his highest Test score.
England’s last win at the WACA was in 1978, when the Australian team had been gutted by World Series Cricket.
Since then they’ve played nine Tests here, with two draws their best result. The high bounce of the pitch makes adjusting extremely hard for all visiting teams bar South Africa, whose recent record is formidable.
It’s for this reason that the 1992 century from a young visiting batsman named Sachin Tendulkar is still remembered with awe.
Some consolation for England will be that their experienced batsmen have a reasonable record from two matches apiece at the ground. Alistair Cook scored 116 here on the wipeout tour in 2006. Kevin Pietersen averages 44 after scoring 70 and 60 not out in the same match, though he made 0 and 3 last time around.
Ian Bell’s four innings include an 87 and a 53. Of their bowling, Monty Panesar and Chris Tremlett have both taken eight wickets in a match here, though Panesar was also devastated by Adam Gilchrist.
As if generally the case, the make-up of the winning team is predictable, while the losing side could go in several directions.
Australia will almost certainly play an unchanged XI: even if James Faulkner had not been ruled out after breaking his thumb in the nets, Australia has finally started respecting Nathan Lyon’s reliable returns, and moved past the phase of yo-yoing him out of the side.
He’ll also provide valuable relief for the fast bowlers with temperatures approaching 40 degrees.
The only possible change will be if Harris can’t recover after Adelaide’s workload, in which case Doug Bollinger is on stand-by. If the left-armer does come in, he and Johnson will plough out some serious footmarks for Nathan Lyon’s benefit outside the right-hander’s off stump.
An England team without Graeme Swann would be kicking themselves.
Dropping Swann is a possibility, after the off spinner’s terrible returns so far this series.
Both he and Panesar may be omitted, with the team keen to get seamer Tim Bresnan back in the side, and tempted to try exploiting the WACA deck by using tall Irish fast bowler Boyd Rankin.
If four quicks play, it’s quite possible we’ll see Ben Stokes omitted for the purer batting of Gary Ballance, but if only three seamers play then Stokes will probably be preferred as a bowling option.
Whatever happens, it will be an unsettled side for England coming into this match, with Joe Root starting only his second Test at number three, and Michael Carberry the third of his career. It will be a settled and focused side for Australia.
Here, they only have to retain their concentration a little longer for the Ashes to be theirs: games in Perth don’t often see the fifth day.
If England can fight their way back into the series here, it will be a triumph for the ages.
Australian side (likely):
David Warner, Chris Rogers, Shane Watson, Michael Clarke (c), Steve Smith, George Bailey, Brad Haddin (wk), Mitchell Johnson, Peter Siddle, Ryan Harris, Nathan Lyon.England side (likely):
Alistair Cook (c), Michael Carberry, Joe Root, Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell, Gary Ballance, Matt Prior, Stuart Broad, Tim Bresnan, James Anderson, Boyd Rankin.
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