The third BCS Bowl to take place this season will be the Allstate Sugar Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners. A battle of college football powerhouses, this match promises to be a close one.
After winning back-to-back BCS National Championships, the Crimson Tide’s chances of a three-peat were slashed after Auburn’s dramatic 100 yard field goal return to win the Iron Bowl.
The Sooners also stumbled against a rival, losing 36-20 to Texas in the Red River Rivalry, while also losing convincingly a few weeks later to Baylor.
Alabama’s last game was the Iron Bowl loss to Auburn. The Tide have been training and preparing for this match for the past month with a sour taste in their mouth.
Quarterback AJ McCarron will want to lead his team to a victory in his final college game to cap off a stellar college career.
McCarron and the Tide’s pro style offense has not set the world on fire like the Oregon Ducks offense or Johnny Manziel led Texas A and M offense, however it has been more than respectable, ranking 36th in total offense and McCarron throwing for 2676 yards and 26 touchdowns this season.
Perhaps more importantly though, is the fact McCarron has thrown just five interceptions this season, five of just 13 thrown in his college career.
The other key plank in the Crimson Tide offense is its running game. Alabama has produced a number of star running backs in recent years, including Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson and Eddy Lacy, and TJ Yeldon is likely to be added to this list in the next couple of years.
Yeldon has run for 1163 yards and 13 Touchdowns, including six games with over 100 yards on the ground.
If Oklahoma is to slow McCarron and the ‘Bama passing they must first slow Yeldon and the running attack.
The Oklahoma Sooners defense has been stout all season, ranking 14th in Total defense in the nation, per ncaa.org.
The 15th ranked passing defense, led by senior cornerback and captain Aaron Colvin, has responded incredibly well to defensive coordinator Mike Stoops’ change in defense prior to the start of this season.
Stoops implemented a 3-3-5 defense after, ironically, assistance from Alabama head coach.
This has provided the defense with an extra defensive back, allowing for an extra specialised pass defender in the spread offense dominated Big 12, thus taking pressure on linebackers which were previously forced to defend receivers.
This has converted to a significant improvement in the Sooners’ rushing defense, improving from an embarrassing 94th rank in the nation in 2012 to 28th in 2013.
The Sooners have gone from allowing an average of 193 rushing yards a game in 2012 to allowing an average of 138.3 yards a game.
However, unfortunately for the Sooners, this defensive scheme may be the best fit for the spread offense based Big 12, but it is not the best fit for a pro style offense like the one run by Alabama.
Presenting just a six-man front, as opposed to the traditional seven-man front, will open up running lanes for TJ Yeldon.
If this forces the Sooners to replace their fifth defensive back with a linebacker to help in run defense it will be game over for the Sooners. AJ McCarron will simply pick the Sooners pass defense apart.
Ultimately, the Sooners defense should stick with the 3-3-5 defence and just ensure the back five are willing and able to crash the box quickly if Yeldon is running the football.
Despite winning 10 games this season, Oklahoma has struggled on offense throughout the year. The Sooners are ranked just 53rd in Total Offense and will seemingly struggle against the fifth best defense in the nation.
Quarterbacks Blake Bell and Trevor Knight have thrown for the second lowest number of yards in the Big 12.
While the Sooners’ passing game has struggled, the rushing attack has thrived.
The Sooners’ rushing attack is ranked 18th in the nation, averaging 235.8 yards a match with Brennan Clay gaining 913 yards throughout the season.
However, Alabama has given up over 200 rushing yards just once this season, against Auburn in the Iron Bowl, so it is unlikely Oklahoma matches their season average in Thursday’s game.
This puts the pressure on Blake Bell to lead the passing game with accuracy and precision.
There is one minor problem however; Alabama are the fourth ranked passing defense in the nation.
There are no doubts about it, Alabama is a defensive juggernaut, featuring stars such as HaHa Clinton-Dix, but as Auburn showed us, there are ways to overcome the ‘Bama defense.
In the Iron Bowl, Auburn regularly mixed up their formations, empty backfields, three back sets, lots of pre-snap movement from receivers and lining up slot receivers in all sorts of different positions.
This kept the Tide linebackers and defensive backs on their toes; they had to determine who was marking who and how to defend them.
The use of the read-option and inside running games early laid the platform for the passing game later in the match.
In the second half, linebackers began to line-up closer to the line of scrimmage, anticipating the run, while those matching up against slot receivers even had their bodies angling in towards the Auburn running backs.
Not only did this open up the play action passing game for Auburn, but it also opened up the outside running game for quarterback Nick Marshall.
The key for the Sooners defeating the Crimson Tide defense is offering up a number of different offensive looks, the Sooners must keep Alabama guessing.
Additionally, although it is far easier said than done, it is absolutely vital the Sooners establish the run in the first half. The Sooners’ offense is based around the running game and it would spell disaster if they are not able to get it going.
The Allstate Sugar Bowl is always a thrilling, close-fought encounter. Oklahoma may be big underdogs, but don’t expect this match to be a blow out. Oklahoma will play tough defense and keep Alabama in check for much of the match.
Ultimately though, the Alabama defense will prove to be too strong and will overcome Oklahoma.
Be sure to come back tomorrow for my take on the Orange Bowl.
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