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Heading into this series, Australia were rank underdogs. After one of their most dominant Ashes wins, they’ll go straight back to the same role. A trip to South Africa awaits.
Australia might go to South Africa and challenge for a series win. They might just as easily go to South Africa and be soundly flogged. It’s hard to decide which.
Not that Australia’s turnaround in this series hasn’t been tremendous. They’ve bossed every Test so far, teasing England until the tourist have broken down into a gibbering heap.
Ian Bell is muttering and biting at his own shoulders. Graeme Swann is in a Darwin bar saying his name is Carlos.
James Anderson looks like he’s stumbled out of a three-night binge in a dockside bar. His face is like an unmade bed. He probably hasn’t slept for weeks.
But when it comes to touring, home form may not mean that much. That’s certainly captain Michael Clarke’s view. “We’ve won four Test matches in our own backyard, but it seems in international cricket at the moment a lot of teams are having success in their own backyard.”
“It’s what you do away from home as well. That’s going to be a huge challenge for us over the next 12 months.”
Mainly I have reservations about South Africa because it’s so hard to pin down just how Australia’s turnaround has happened.
This is, by and large, the same team that lost 3-0 in England, made up of players with hitherto modest records in the Test arena.
Michael Clarke is still the only player in the side with a consistently world-class record. It’s just that together, as a unit, they’ve been brilliant.
Mitchell Johnson’s re-emergence as a premier cricketing talent has obviously been central to that change. He was the common element missing in the last year or so of Test struggles.
In concert with Ryan Harris and Peter Siddle, he has made the Australian pace attack relentless. Nathan Lyon has developed in support as the lone spinner.
On South Africa’s decks, that bowling attack has a great chance of troubling the home side. Johnson has destroyed Tests there before.
Harris and Siddle will enjoy the bounce and carry. What’s good for Dale Steyn is good for them.
If anyone should be injured, James Pattinson will hopefully be ready to fill in. Other good fast bowlers are in the wings, though none of quite the same class.
But the worry is Australia’s batting. Yes, Australia have been well on top this Ashes series with the bat. They’ve scored nine hundreds thus far, with Chris Rogers a chance for a tenth in Sydney. They’ve batted England out of every match.
But however well they’ve done in this series, Australia’s top order remains suspect.
I wrote yesterday about how often Brad Haddin has dug them out of holes in the first innings this series: Australia’s fifth wicket this series has fallen at 100, 257, 143, 112 and 97 – this against an attack that has seemed impotent against the lower order.
While each individual has played some good innings, only a couple could claim a consistent series.
Against Steyn, Vernon Philander and Morne Morkel, on seaming South African pitches, the Australian top order still has a brittle look about it. David Warner and Haddin are a couple of batsmen who could make conditions work for them.
South Africa’s fast and bouncy pitches have suited attacking Australian batsmen in the past, and if they can carry over their form from this series, then their ability to get away from the bowling will be important.
Michael Clarke has scored big runs in South Africa before, and is always a prospect for a big innings. His Ashes series has been a little erratic, with two centuries in the first two matches, but a string of low scores in his other innings.
From there onward, though, there could be trouble. Chris Rogers is a nervous starter, and the steep bounce of Morkel may trouble him.
Watson is a front-foot driver who often doesn’t compensate for movement. Steve Smith is twitchier at commencement than Rogers, with a high backlift and a tendency to flash at the ball.
Even on Australian pitches, George Bailey’s outside edge has been his undoing.
Basically, all four are chronic nickers, making them great candidates for the stacked slip cordons of South African fields.
In the 47 all out that we’d rather forget, every wicket fell to a catch between ‘keeper and gully. It’s the way South Africa bowl, and the way conditions over there work. Australia may not have the right tools to counter them.
On the brighter side for Australia, Rogers has looked vastly more confident at the crease as this series has worn on, putting an anxious first couple of matches behind him to rattle up four half centuries and a match-winning hundred.
With his second innings in Sydney, he became the highest scorer across this year’s back-to-back Ashes series, passing Ian Bell to reach 782 runs.
Smith has scored three Test centuries in the space of five Tests, with his first at The Oval in August followed up by tons in Perth and Sydney.
His starting is suspect, but his maturity and application grow with each match. He is a gamble that could come off.
Watson’s bowling could be a great boon in South Africa, if the frontline seamers aren’t able to get a breakthrough. Coach Darren Lehmann loves having him in the team for the flexibility he gives. The question is whether he can muster enough against South Africa’s bowling at number three.
Bailey has been under greatest scrutiny by Australian fans and the media, with most of them convincing themselves that he won’t go to South Africa without a big score in Sydney. He’ll resume on day three on 20 not out, but even if he doesn’t get runs here, I’d expect him to tour.
His talent is obvious, the team like him, and he’s currently undefeated in Test cricket. But a tour to South Africa is probably the worst place for him to try to prove himself at Test level.
Other names will be thrown around, especially Tasmanian seamer specialists like Alex Doolan, with the standard line preferring Watson to bat at six with a replacement at three. It’s not one that appeals, as Watson lacks the adaptability of an ideal number six batsman, but it could be better than him nicking to first slip for single figure scores.
Perhaps the batsman who should now be considered, whether for three or six, is Phil Hughes.
He has been poorly treated by national selectors, with mixed messages and inconsistent opportunities at the top level throughout his career.
But he began that career with twin hundreds in his second Test, on tour in South Africa, against an attack no less imposing than the one this side will face.
He’s made two centuries and a double hundred in the Shield so far this year, and is Australia’s only batsman to be really knocking on the door by virtue of domestic performances.
Hughes can nick with the best of them, but with his slashing, square-of-the-wicket game, he can also use fast pitches to make bowlers pay.
Over the next day or so, Australian fans and the national side can enjoy wrapping up the Ashes here in Sydney, whether it’s a whitewash or some freak event keeps them to four Test wins.
Not long after that, though, it’ll be time to start getting nervous all over again.
Geoff Lemon is a writer and radio broadcaster. He joined The Roar as an expert columnist in 2010, writes the satirical blog Heathen Scripture, and tweets from @GeoffLemonSport. This article was first published by Wisden India, in a new-founded Ashes partnership.