With the NFL regular season coming to an end on Sunday, the playoff match-ups have been set and Denver and Seattle have been declared as Super Bowl favourites.
But do the four wild-card teams have any chance of going the distance, or will they be one and done?
Wild-card teams have been quite successful in recent years, with Baltimore winning the title last year and the Packers winning Super Bowl XLV from the No.6 seed, as the Pittsburgh Steelers did in Super Bowl XL.
This reflects the increased parity of the NFL and the fact that once you’re in the playoff ‘tournament’, anybody has a chance of winning just four games in a row and being crowned Super Bowl champions.
So who out of Kansas City, San Diego, San Francisco and New Orleans has the best shot this season?
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs entered the season with a new coach and a new quarterback on the back of a 2-14 season, and prior to round one very few expected them to be in the playoffs. After starting the season 9-0, rival teams suddenly took notice.
With the AFC West and a first round bye on the line, the Chiefs stumbled in the two matches which mattered most – against the Denver Broncos.
Losses to Indianapolis and twice to San Diego eventually left the Chiefs at 11-5 and a fifth seed. Despite their strong start, many experts wrote the Chiefs off as Super Bowl contenders following their losses to Denver.
The Chiefs were beaten by Indianapolis at home just two weeks ago and now they must travel to play the Colts on the road.
If the strong Chiefs defence is able to fire and shut down the Andrew Luck led Colts passing game, it will be up to Alex Smith and Jamal Charles to lead the Chiefs to victory.
Despite being much maligned, Alex Smith has had a strong season playing under a new coach in a new offence.
Smith has led the Chiefs by playing smart football – he has not thrown the ball into tight windows and relied on a lot of screen passes to Charles, who was not only the team’s leading rusher with 1,287 yards, but also the team’s leading receiver with 693 yards.
By playing smart football, Smith has limited his interceptions to just seven for the year. This has been the key to the Chiefs’ success – turnover differential.
The Chiefs have just eight interceptions this season, including one by back-up quarterback Chase Daniel in the Week 17 overtime loss to the Chargers. And the defence has forced 21 interceptions, led by Quinton Demps with four.
The fumbles lost are even at three by the Chiefs and three recovered by the Chiefs defence.
While Smith is widely considered to be unable to step up in the playoffs, it is important to note that he has some playoff experience and performed well in the 2011 playoffs, albeit while playing at home.
Smith in 2011 led the 49ers to a No.2 seed and a victory in the NFC Divisional round against the Saints. The following week Smith had seemingly done enough to book a Super Bowl berth until Kyle Williams’ two punt return fumbles eventually led to a Giants overtime victory.
Smith has the talent and the supporting cast around him, plus strong defence and Jamal Charles, to prove the doubters wrong and lead the Chiefs to the Super Bowl.
Verdict: Chiefs lose a tight one to the Colts in Round 1 of the playoffs.
San Diego Chargers
The final team in the AFC to qualify for the playoffs, the 9-7 Chargers got here with a lot of help in Week 17. After early losses by Baltimore and Miami, San Diego qualified with an overtime victory over the Chiefs.
Another team with a new head coach this season, the Chargers have been a mixed bag this year, playing outstanding matches in Denver and Kansas City in overcoming the top two teams in their division.
They have also produced some stinkers, including a loss to the Bengals at home.
Led by an evergreen Phillip Rivers, the Chargers have found form at the right time of the season, winning their last four games to sneak into the playoffs after that Bengals loss seemingly eliminated them from playoff contention.
And guess who the Chargers play this weekend? That’s right, the Cincinnati Bengals.
There are plenty of questions surrounding Andy Dalton and his playoff capabilities coming into this weekend’s game, as to whether he can cope with playoff pressure.
We know that Phillip Rivers will have a strong performance this week, as he has in playoff matches in the past, but the match is likely to come down to Dalton and the Chargers’ 29th ranked passing defence.
Their pass defence is abysmal. Free safety Eric Weddle is the only quality defender in the Chargers’ secondary. Dalton is likely to repeatedly target wide receiver AJ Green and expect this duo to have success.
If Phillip Rivers is able to lead his team to a victory over the Bengals, do the Chargers have a chance a on the road against Denver the following week?
They’ve already defeated the Broncos once this season in Denver and Phillip Rivers has the ability to pick apart a weak Broncos defence.
Conversely, Peyton Manning can very easily pick apart the weak Chargers’ secondary, as he has done once already this year.
Verdict: Chargers upset the Bengals and then lose a tight shootout in Denver the following week.
San Francisco 49ers
Another team to hit peak form at the right time of year after a so-so start is the defending NFC Champion 49ers. The team has won six straight matches and is definitely the real deal.
The recent form of the 49ers has coincided with the return of star receiver Michael Crabtree. Crabtree’s return has taken pressure off stars Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis by acting as a genuine receiving threat.
The defences must now spread their resources across three star receivers, not just two. This has also opened up running lanes for back Frank Gore as the defensive focus shifts to the passing game.
The 49ers also have a dominant defence, led by linebacker NaVorro Bowman. The 49ers’ defence has not given up more than 25 points since their week three loss to the Colts.
The defence will, however, be challenged by the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers this weekend at a hostile Lambeau Field.
A freezing cold Lambeau Field will greet the 49ers on the weekend and the 49ers have not played a cold weather game since their road loss to the Seahawks in week two. They are not accustomed to the cold and will struggle to adjust to this.
It is also vital this weekend and throughout the playoffs that the 49ers’ run defence continues to dominate opposition ground game, as it has done all season.
A key to this game is the performance of the banged up Eddie Lacy. If the 49ers can shut him down, they will be well on their way to picking up a victory.
Verdict: Win on the road in Green Bay before going down to Seattle or defeating Carolina next week.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints limped into a wildcard spot after losing their last three road games. They enter the playoffs written off by virtually every expert going around, having to win on the road three times and then in a cold Metlife Stadium to loft the Lombardi Trophy.
While the Saints have been written off by many, they remain a strong football team.
Yes, they rely on Drew Brees and the passing game, they are the second best passing offence in the league, but there are not many quarterbacks who could lead this offence better than Brees.
His combination with Jimmy Graham is one of the best in the league and while the Saints lack a strong running game, they have an extremely efficient screen passing game.
If the Saints overcome the Eagles this weekend they will be heading into Seattle – a place where they got blown out just a month ago – to face the Seahawks next weekend.
The Saints’ pass-heavy offence unsurprisingly struggles in the cold weather and unfortunately for New Orleans, their run defence struggles in all weather, giving up an average of 111.6 yards a game – 19th in the NFL.
Teams rely on their running game in cold weather, which means that the New Orleans defence must step up in order to stop the run.
This is especially important for the Saints this weekend as they will be facing the league’s rushing leader, LeSean McCoy, and Chip Kelly’s high-powered offence in below freezing, snowy conditions.
I can’t see the Saints getting past the Eagles in Saturday’s match; the Eagles run game will just be too strong.
Verdict: Lose on Saturday in a close game dominated by LeSean McCoy.
Regardless of whether any wild-card teams manage to go all the way or not, the playoffs promise to be exciting and unpredictable as ever.
At the moment, I have absolutely no idea who will win the Super Bowl.
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