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The Over/Under: Super Bowl Sunday

The Broncos defence got them through to Super Bowl 50, but Manning also kept possession well. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)
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1st February, 2014
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Super Bowl XLVIII arrives with a fantastic clash between the best offense and best defence in the NFL.

The historic offense of the Broncos, which scored more points than any team in NFL history, challenges the ultra-aggressive Seattle defence and its Legion of Boom secondary.

In a game of strength versus strength, every mistake could be crucial. With both teams travelling to the wintery confines of MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, any result is possible in this battle of contrasting styles.

Quarterback
Peyton Manning had the greatest season in the history of quarterbacks, breaking the records for touchdowns and yards. He had a clinical performance against the New England Patriots, throwing for 400 yards with a 74% completion rate.

Clearly he is the main storyline of this Super Bowl, an NFL legend vying for another championship, and he’ll be the most important player on the field for either team.

With the greatest passing offense in history against one of the top passing defences of all time, the way Manning leads his aerial attack will likely decide the outcome.

If Manning is on his game, even the impressive Seattle defence will be hard pressed to stop him.

In contrast, Russell Wilson is one of the young stars taking the torch from the older legion of quarterbacks such as Manning.

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Though his stats might not compare to those of his opponent, he was voted to the Pro Bowl behind a season of remarkable efficiency.

For Seattle to win, Wilson is going to have to make a couple of big plays which he has managed throughout the year.

A top-10 quarterback in the league who leads an effective passing attack, he definitely has the ability and skill to win the Super Bowl for Seattle against a below-average Denver secondary.

Manning is the best quarterback in the league but is playing the best defence.

Wilson is a talented youngster going up against a pass defence without Von Miller and Chris Harris. Despite the potential bad weather, the Super Bowl MVP is most likely to be the winner of these two stars.

Advantage: Denver

Running Back
Knowshon Moreno made a significant career leap in 2013, much of it due to Manning and the effective OL. Yet he still showed off the skill which made him a first round pick and even if he isn’t one of the best running backs in the league, he is a legitimate starter.

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The presence of Montee Ball must also be recognised when talking about the Broncos running game.

Apart from being the likely future at running back, he’s been useful now for Denver, with a 4.7 yard average on 120 carries.

Expect early carries for these two in the New York cold as they’ll be necessary in minimising the defensive pressure on Manning.

Marshawn Lynch once again showed his Beast Mode last week, becoming the first running back to rush for over 100 yards against the 49ers this season.

He had another dominant season, further strengthening his career revival since coming to Seattle.

Though Denver’s run defence is ninth in DVOA, Lynch has the potential to break the 100 yard barrier again in the Super Bowl.

The Denver defence will be centred on stopping Lynch and forcing Wilson to throw the ball to win the game, which is evidence of the threat Lynch poses to the Broncos.

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As Lynch has emerged as a top-5 running back behind his twelve touchdown season, he’ll be crucial to Seattle’s chance for victory.

Advantage: Seattle

Wide Receiver
The Broncos’ wide receiving corps was essential in Peyton Manning’s historic passing attack. Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker all had over 70 catches and 10 touchdowns each, emphasising the diversity of the Denver passing offense.

Thomas and Decker are both bigger, strong receivers who will provide fantastic match-ups with Seattle’s big secondary.

Welker plays in the slot and is almost impossible to cover due to his agility and route running.

If the Denver receivers can’t get open against the Seattle secondary, then Seattle could easily take control of this game.

But on the opposite side, if the secondary gets beaten enough, Manning could decimate the defence.

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Seattle didn’t manage to get its ideal receiving duo together, with Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice out for most of the season. Though Harvin may return, it’s dangerous to expect a major performance from a player who has barely played this season.

So Wilson will be relying on Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate and Jermaine Kearse to attack the Denver secondary.

A smaller group of receivers, Seattle will use their speed to their advantage as they regularly throw beyond 10 yards.

Against a weak back-four, particularly the Bronco safeties, the Seahawks could cause some major damage in the deep passing game. All three receivers will be difficult match-ups for Broncos defenders not named Rodgers-Cromartie.

Though Denver has the better trio of receivers, the Seattle receivers have the opportunity to make just as big an impact on the game.

Advantage: Denver

Tight End
Julius Thomas emerged as one of Manning’s favourite targets and became one of the top tight-ends in the league. He was the fourth receiver with over 10 TDs for Denver and is now filling a Dallas Clark type role.

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Thomas has the potential to be better than Clark was for Indianapolis as he’s too big for safeties to cover and too fast for linebackers.

Yet he’ll be playing two of the best safeties in the league and it won’t be easy for him to have a big game.

But he gives Manning an important weapon and will almost certainly be a main factor in the Super Bowl. Also the most important point, he played basketball in college.

Zach Miller may have been under-utilised by Seattle in 2013 but Denver does have to respect his receiving potential. Having become a tight-end focused on blocking, he almost disappeared from the passing offense compared to past seasons.

If the Seahawks decide to shake things up offensively, Miller will be a prime candidate for a role change. Though he probably won’t have a major impact, he has the potential to catch a couple important passes.

Random fact, he has the highest cap number of any Seattle player in 2014.

Advantage: Denver

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Offensive Line
Chris Clark. Zane Beadles. Manny Ramirez. Louis Vasquez. Orlando Franklin. These five linemen will be in the most important match-up of the Super Bowl and are definitely up to the task.

By adjusted sack rate, the Broncos offensive line is the best in the league, only allowing sacks on 3.7% of drop-backs.

This level of pass protection will be immensely important against the Seattle defensive line, as an upright Manning is vital to Denver’s chances of winning.

Clark in particular has been surprisingly good, after he came into the starting side as the blindside replacement for the injured Ryan Clady.

Manning wasn’t touched against the Patriots and that kind of blocking performance will be essential against Seattle.

The offensive line is also in the top-ten in terms of run blocking.

Their adjusted line-yards rank eighth in the league and Denver rarely gets stuffed at the line of scrimmage, only 11% of the time. A weaker area is their power rushing where the Broncos rank 17th, with a 64% success rate in 2-yards-and-less situations.

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Russell Okung. James Carpenter. Max Unger. J.R. Sweezy. Breno Giacomini. The return of Okung is essential as the Seattle offensive line has been one of the weaker units of the team. The pass blocking is dead last in the league by adjusted sack rate with sacks allowed on 9.6% of drop-backs.

Though Denver isn’t a great pass-rushing team, they’ll have the ability to get past the Seattle pass protection. With the poor pass blocking of the Seahawks, Russell Wilson will definitely be forced into scrambling several times during this game. Clearly, this is Seattle’s major weakness with Okung being their main hope of fixing the issue.

The run blocking is comparatively better as they rank ninth, just behind Denver, in adjusted line-yards at 4.05 per carry.

The stuff rate is 19%, which ranks 15th in the league. However, it may be surprising with Marshawn Lynch as the running back, but Seattle is the worst in the league at short-yardage rushing.

They only find short-yardage success 49% of the time which shows that the Seahawks are clearly focused on their zone-blocking scheme under Pete Carroll, rather than a power-blocking style. It hasn’t worked this season.

Advantage: Denver

Defensive Line
With Derek Wolfe and Kevin Vickerson injured, rookie Sylvester Williams has been pushed into a starting role throughout the playoffs. Though he was talented enough to be drafted in the first round, Denver did not expect him to be in a starting Super Bowl role.

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He showed the potential to be a good player in the future but is still a weakness on the Denver defensive line.

However his partner at defensive tackle, Terrance Knighton, has emerged as one of Denver’s most important defenders in their ninth ranked rush defence.

Apart from his ability to stuff the run, Knighton has slimmed down and gained an improved pass-rush as was evident against the Patriots in the AFC Championship.

He’ll be essential in shutting down Marshawn Lynch and pressuring Russell Wilson.

Defensive ends Malik Jackson and Shaun Phillips combined for 16 sacks in 2013 and will be tasked with keeping Wilson in the pocket and minimising his ability to roll-out.

Both are adequate run defenders but it isn’t their strong suit. Phillips will be taking on former Pro Bowler Okung, so will be given a very difficult Super Bowl.

Back-up end Robert Ayers, a former first round pick, will also have the task of pressuring Wilson throughout the game.

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Denver is third best in adjusted line yards, allowing an average of 3.22 yards per carry. The run defence will be important against the Seattle rushing attack, but an inability to rush Wilson could have dangerous consequences.

The Denver pass rush only ranked 21st in the league, with an adjusted sack rate of 6.5%.

Seattle has a fantastic defence but much of that stems from the talented secondary.

Though the defensive line is good, it doesn’t have the same quality of players as other areas of the defence. Yet they’ll need to be dominant in this game as the Seahawks can’t afford for Peyton Manning to stay upright and untouched.

Tony McDaniel and Brandon Mebane are the defensive tackles in Seattle’s 4-3 defence and their main role will be plugging holes and stopping the run.

The two are merely an average tackle combination and could be get pushed around by the interior line of the Broncos unless they have a good game. Chris Clemons and Red Bryant serve as the starting defensive ends and are adequate in their role.

Both have had better seasons in the past yet continue to be effective in run-stopping and pass-rushing situations.

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The Seattle line is 11th best by DVOA at stuffing the run behind the line of scrimmage, stopping rushers 21% of the time.

The two most important linemen though, will be Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. The two outside pass-rushers combined for 16.5 sacks in the regular season and will be central to Seattle’s attempts to pressure Manning.

Though the Seattle pass rush ranked seventh in adjusted DVOA, much of that came from linebacker pressure which won’t be as easy to utilise against Manning.

To give the pass coverage the best possible opportunity, these two free agent pick-ups will have to perform against the Broncos superstar line.

Bennett and Avril may be the two most important players for the Seahawks in the Super Bowl and if they provide consistent pressure, they’ll put Seattle in position to win the championship.

Advantage: Seattle

Linebackers
Denver mainly utilises a rotating cast of four linebackers: Paris Lenon, Nate Irving, Wesley Woodyard and Danny Trevathan.

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Without Von Miller, these four will be tasked with patrolling the second level and slowing down Marshawn Lynch.

Woodyard and Trevathan are the two regular starters of the four and have better potential in pass coverage.

Trevathan is by far the best linebacker left on the squad and will be needed against Lynch and his Beast Mode. Woodyard is an acceptable defender, near the league-average for linebackers.

Lenon and Irving are mainly run-stoppers and neither provides a major presence in the middle for Denver.

Denver’s biggest weakness is either this group of linebackers or their secondary. Though they were a reason for the ninth ranked run defence, the linebackers also were influential on a 21st ranked pass defence.

Lynch has the potential to run wild against this group if the defensive line doesn’t get stops in the running game and Zach Miller has the potential to actually play in the passing game against this defence.

Expect Trevathan to have a big game for Denver, perhaps becoming Denver’s best defender in the game.

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In contrast, Seattle has two uninjured stars at the centre of their defence.

Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner are both fantastic players who are vital to the performance of this defence. Irvin moved to outside linebacker in his second season and his sack total suffered significantly, as he only amassed two on the season. Despite this, he remains a talented pass rusher who further developed as a run stopper during the season.

Even though his pass rushing seemed worse, his overall performance as a linebacker was better than last season.

Wagner is the man in the middle which makes the Seattle defence tick, a true defensive superstar. He can rush the passer, he can drop back in coverage and he can stand up against any running back and he does it all at an exceptional level.

The secondary gets a huge amount of credit for Seattle’s No.1 defensive ranking but Wagner deserves just as much credit as any player on the team.

The third starter, Malcolm Smith, has also had an effective season.

Though he would be viewed as the weak link of the linebackers, he played well against the pass and the run. He may not have the ability of his two teammates but he has held his own as a starter all season.

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Despite his good performances, it wouldn’t be surprising if Manning still targeted him during the game.

Advantage: Seattle

Secondary
With the loss of Chris Harris, Denver’s back-four are in trouble.

Though Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has had a rebound year, the secondary is clearly the weakest link of the Denver defence.

A talented first-rounder, he has emerged as the best defender in the Broncos secondary. But the other positions are less certain.

Champ Bailey may be a future Hall-of-Famer, but he is coming close to the end of his decorated career after an injury-marred season. With the loss of Harris, Bailey has been forced to defend the slot which he hasn’t done regularly in his career.

However, the bigger issue is when Quentin Jammer comes into the game as he simply doesn’t have the coverage ability he had earlier in his career.

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If he gets placed on the speedy Jermaine Kearse, the Denver safeties had better be providing some deep cover.

Mike Adams and Duke Ihenacho, two formerly undrafted free agents, will be the starting safeties for the Broncos. Neither inspires significant confidence with Ihenacho being benched during the season due to his poor pass coverage.

They’ll have to perform to their best in the Super Bowl to stop any big plays, whether it’s a deep pass or a Marshawn Lynch run into the second level.

The Denver defence ranked 21st against the pass so it is vulnerable to big plays. Though Seattle doesn’t always go for the big plays, Wilson has had 59 pass plays over 20 yards which is a top ten mark for quarterbacks.

With the added threat of Lynch, the secondary will need to have an impressive game.

The fearsome Legion of Boom is led by controversial cornerback Richard Sherman, one of the best corners in the league.

Sherman usually stays on his side of the field, but if he gets the assignment to cover Demaryius Thomas it’ll be another great contest.

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Seattle’s first ranked pass defence stems from its fantastic secondary and Manning will be hard-pressed to find its weakness. As it’s unlikely to be Sherman, that leaves Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas and Byron Maxwell.

Safeties Chancellor and Thomas were both All-Pros in 2013 and were the best safety combination in the league.

Chancellor almost has the size of a linebacker and is renowned for his devastating hits against opposition receivers.

Thomas is the ball hawk with a knack for breaking up passes all over the secondary.

Both are fantastic players who can match-up against the talented receivers of the Broncos. Thomas is probably even better than Sherman.

Maxwell emerged as the second cornerback after the suspension of Brandon Browner and has cemented his spot in the starting line-up. He’s the only starting player who wasn’t on the All-Pro team but he remains a vital member of the Legion of Boom.

Third corner Walter Thurmond follows the large cornerback style of Seattle and will probably have to be an important player in this game as well.

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There is no real weakness among the secondary but if they give Manning any opportunities, he’ll take them.

In contrast to Denver, Seattle ranked first against the pass.

Against the greatest passing offense in league history, it’s going to have to perform at that level to give Seattle their best chance to win the game.

This match-up with Denver’s array of receivers will almost certainly be the most exciting in the game.

Advantage: Seattle

Special Teams
Seattle’s punt coverage was lauded throughout the season, only allowing 82 punt return yards which ranked second to St Louis. However, Jon Ryan simply didn’t punt the ball very far which allowed his punt coverage unit to easily stop returns.

So despite having minimal return yards, his net average was only 19th in the league. Steven Hauschka was great for Seattle though, hitting 94.3% of his field goals and regularly forcing touchbacks.

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That second part will be important against Holliday. Golden Tate averaged 11.5 yards per punt return, higher than Holliday, while Jermaine Kearse was the main kick returner and didn’t have many major returns.

Though Matt Prater led the league in touchbacks, the Denver coverage on kick returns was subpar allowing an average return of 29.7 yards.

However he was automatic in his kicking duties, missing one kick on the season for a 96.2% kicking rate and breaking the record for longest field goal. Britton Colquitt was in the bottom-10 for net punting average. Trindon Holliday is Denver’s superstar returner, with touchdowns on punt and kick returns this season.

Though he occasionally has fumble issues, he remains an electric player and could be an X-factor in the match.

Advantage: Denver

Coaching
John Fox is at the Super Bowl with his second team after the Carolina Panthers.

He’s viewed as one of the better head coaches in the league but isn’t in the upper echelon.

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The team is always well prepared for games under Fox, but watch out for any potential timeout wastage.

Jack Del Rio at defensive coordinator is a former NFL head coach.

Adam Gase at offensive coordinator is likely to be a future head coach. There is clearly a lot of talent in the coaching staff, with Del Rio even taking control when Fox was medically incapable at one point during the season

Pete Carroll, in his third head coaching role, seems to have finally gotten the hang of being in the NFL. His first two stints in New York and New England proved relatively unsuccessful but in Seattle he has developed one of the top squads in the league.

However, he still has a way to go until he can truly be one of the best coaches in the league as his in-game management is closer to average.

OC Darrell Bevell and DC Dan Quinn were both head coaching candidates for teams who weren’t as good as the Seahawks. They have been important in developing and refining the talent on Seattle’s roster, deservedly being recognised as future head coaches.

Neither coach is really that much better than the other. They both have moments of coaching brilliance but it’s often offset by mistakes made in relation to clock management and play design. In this Super Bowl, a coaching mistake is more likely to swing the result than any other coaching decision.

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Advantage: Push

Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning have never played each other in a meaningful game with the 2013 preseason featuring their lone contest. In a battle between an unstoppable offense and an immovable defence, the Broncos emerge victorious with Manning holding his second Lombardi Trophy.

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