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Predicting NFL free agency (part one)

Roar Pro
13th February, 2014
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1609 Reads

For most NFL fans the season ended when the Seattle Seahawks defence bashed the Denver Broncos to grab hold of the mighty Lombardi trophy.

However, the true NFL fans will tell you that the NFL season never ends.

The business side of football is well and truly here.

The business side of football is just as, or more so, important the season itself.

Building your franchise through free agency and the draft directly affects your fate deep into the playoffs. Just look at the players who starred in the post season.

Michael Bennett, Wes Welker, Cliff Avril, Terrence Knighton and Percy Harvin were all key free agent acquisitions this time last year by the two Super Bowl participants.

This season an impressive crop of players especially on the defensive side of the ball will be available for acquisition by 32 NFL franchises.

The 2014 free agency period begins on March 11 let us examine where some of the big names will suit up next season.

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Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints
Jimmy Graham is the best tight end in football, sorry New England fans, and without him the Saints offense would lack serious fire power. Don’t expect Graham to hit the market though with the Saints doing everything in its power to retain his services with a new deal or via the franchise tag.

The only concern is whether he ends up with the WR franchise tag or the TE tag the latter being significantly less money.

Jarius Byrd, S, Buffalo Bills
Byrd is the best free agent safety on the market and based on his numerous failed negotiations with Buffalo this season is looking to be paid like it.

There is a team that needs a safety, has cap space and just hired the former Buffalo defensive co-ordinator Mike Pettine as their new head coach.

Look for Byrd in a Cleveland Browns jersey in 2014.

Greg Hardy, DE, Carolina Panthers
Greg Hardy, nicknamed The Kraken, is a key component of the success of the Carolina defence in 2013.

Hardy tied the franchise record with 15 sacks last season and thinks he should be paid accordingly. “Give me a phone call and offer me a crapload of money” he said to Around the League.

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The Panthers have some cap concerns but Hardy will be their number one priority in free agency. He will remain a Panther in 2013 thanks to the franchise tag.

Brent Grimes, CB, Miami Dolphins
After a torn ACL in 2012, Grimes returned an even better player in 2013. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked Grimes the second best cornerback in the NFL behind Darelle Revis.

His impressive play warrants an impressive pay rise and given his injury history Grimes won’t settle for a mediocre pay packet. The Dolphins have room to move but don’t be surprised if a divisional rival nabs him.

Grimes to be part of “The Gang Green” in 2014.

Michael Vick, quarterback, Philadelphia Eagles
Michael Vick wants to be a starter in the NFL and thanks to a Napoleon Dynamite look alike it won’t be at the home of the Philly Cheese Steak. Vick deserves at least one more shot as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

It is no coincidence that the teams at the top of the draft board have glaring needs at quarterback. Rumours around the league suggest both the Jets and the Buccaneers are interested. Look for Vick to compete with Geno Smith for a starting spot.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos
Moreno had a career year in the high octane Denver offense in 2013 and will be looking to capitalise on his new found form in free agency.

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Denver used a high draft pick on Montee Ball and with glaring holes on defence and offensive line to sure up Moreno will not be returning to Mile High.

The Titans, Browns, Jaguars, the Raiders and even the Dolphins loom as potential landing spots but look for the Falcons to land the pass catching back.

Alex Mack, C, Cleveland Browns
Mack is one of the most promising young centres in the game and will be atop many teams’ wish lists.

With what looks to be a brand new backfield, Cleveland will draft a quarterback in the first round and most likely land Ben Tate from Houston, an efficient offensive line will help ease the new guys into the league and compete. Alex Mack will remain a Brown but it will cost them.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
Nicks cost himself a lot of money with his 2013 performance. Nicks was beyond terrible and failed to score a single touchdown. Two years prior Nicks was considered one of the best wideouts in the league and if he can return to that form will be great value to the team that ends up with his services.

Given his upside at the price some elite teams like the Colts, Eagles and Patriots will look into Nicks but ultimately the Raiders offer him the best deal and give whoever their new quarterback is a legitimate target to through at.

Captain Munnerlyn, CB, Carolina Panthers
With big money likely headed towards Greg Hardy, Captain Munnerlyn (who just quietly happens to have the best name in the NFL) will be a victim of the salary cap in Carolina.

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Munnerlyn is a solid corner despite his small frame and recorded 77 tackles, three sacks and two pick sixes in the 2013 season. Munnerlyn will not attract big money and can definitely help some teams in the secondary.

With Champ Bailey considering a move to the safety position look for Denver to make a small splash on the Captain.

Stay tuned for Part Two of the series where players like Eric Decker, Brian Orakpo, Alterraun Verner, Joique Bell, Maurice Jones Drew and many more will be put under the microscope.

Follow Josh on Twitter @joshwye

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