If the Wollongong Hawks are hanging on by a thread, it would appear their claws have a very firm grip on that thread.
Last weekend, the Hawks impressed by winning both games from their double, at home to Townsville and away to Sydney.
Of most interest was the performance of sharpshooter Rotnei Clarke, who racked up 39 points against the Kings – the NBL’s season high.
All of the sudden, after the 102-80 thumping of Adelaide a week earlier, a team most had written off are riding a three-game hot streak.
Now admittedly, the NBL form guide is a bit foggy at the moment. It’s literally a league where anyone can beat anyone, so streaks are easily ended.
But is there something more to this Hawks win streak and can they actually make the finals?
Don’t be quick to rule it out.
The sixth-placed Hawks have just six games left in the season, which on the one hand means the clock is ticking – but it also means this is the perfect time for them to strike.
Since Gordie McLeod took over as coach, the Hawks win percentage rises by an average of 25 over the final six games of the regular season compared with all previous games.
In 2009/10, the Hawks converted a 54 percent win record going into their last six games to a 67 percent win record after.
In 2010/11, the tally went from 45 percent to 83. The next year it was 27 to 50. Last year it was 41 to 66.
You can probably put this down to the fact Gordie’s system is fairly complex, therefore it takes a while for new players to learn it fully and adapt their games.
By season’s end, however, one would assume the wrinkles have been more or less ironed out.
On this basis, it’s not unreasonable to assume the Hawks are set for a stronger finish than their current 41 percent win record would suggest.
However, with news of knee surgery for import Kevin Tiggs emerging yesterday, converting that into a finals appearance just became a much tougher ask.
According to the NBL website, it is hoped Tiggs will return “by the end of the season”.
But with the teams fourth and below on the ladder all at 50 percent or less, the percentages matter. Wollongong have an historical edge here.
They also have home court advantage on their side – four of their remaining games are at the WIN Entertainment Centre.
Right now, you’d be a fool write them off.
Well, at least right now.
With the Hawks hosting the Breakers tonight – and New Zealand (fifth) and Sydney (fourth) both having doubles – a lot more will be revealed this weekend.
The Sydney Kings have successfully defended their NBL crown.
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