Here we are at the biggest game of the rugby league season – the 2014 NRL grand final.
The game is between two clubs with great history and significance in the game of rugby league, the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs.
South Sydney are into their first grand final since their last premiership success in 1971, 43 years ago, which was their 20th Premiership. The Rabbitohs are going for their 21st Premiership success, and they have got to this position through playing a game that is fast, strong and powerful.
Canterbury-Bankstown are into their first grand final since 2012, where they were beaten 14-4 by the Melbourne Storm. The Bulldogs are going for their ninth premiership success, and they have reached the grand final by playing a game built on toughness, grit and a bit of that old-fashioned niggle.
But how do these two sides stack up in terms of their form, and how are they going to approach this game? Let’s try and dissect this match-up, and how it is likely to play out on Sunday evening at ANZ Stadium in Sydney.
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The Form and the Game Plan – Rabbitohs
The Rabbitohs, coached by Michael Maguire, are coming into the grand final in tremendous form. Souths have won 8 of their last 10 games, including a narrow seven-point victory over the Bulldogs.
In all of those victories, South Sydney’s game plan has been to play a hard and fast power game through the middle of the field, softening up the forwards of their opposition. This has allowed the speedy backline players of the Rabbitohs, led by the great Greg Inglis and supported by Alex Johnston, Dylan Walker, Kirisome Auva’a, and Lote Tuqiri, to take advantage of the open spaces created by their forwards.
The forwards are led by their captain John Sutton, starring the Burgess brothers (Sam, George, Tom and possibly Luke), Ben Te’o and Chris McQueen just to name a few.
This great level of performance has been controlled by Adam Reynolds, Luke Keary, and Issac Luke, helping create the spark that has been necessary to expose the defence of their opposition. This has allowed the speed players to pile on the scoreboard pain onto the opposition, which has been too much for opposition teams to overcome.
Unfortunately for the Rabbitohs, Luke will not be playing in the grand final after being suspended for two games for committing a grade one dangerous throw on Sydney Roosters back-rower Sonny Bill Williams in the preliminary final.
He will also miss New Zealand’s opening Four Nations clash with Australia in Brisbane on the 25th of October.
So, how will this affect the Rabbitohs?
The absence of Luke will mean that South Sydney will draft in Apisai Koroisau, who filled in admirably for Luke when he was out injured in the early to middle part of the season. Koroisau showed in that period of time that he could possibly become one of the best hookers in the game in the future.
The biggest difference between him and Luke at this time is that Luke has a superior running game, which suited the tactical approach of the Rabbitohs perfectly. However, Koroisau is a really good defender, possibly better than Luke in that area of the game. So this means that Koroisau cannot fully replace the impact that Luke gives the Rabbitohs overall.
So, does this mean that the Bulldogs can turn the tables on the Rabbitohs?
The Form and the Game Plan – Bulldogs
The Bulldogs, coached by Des Hasler, are coming into the grand final having won five of their seven games, but had lost four games in a row before going on this good run of form.
Throughout the whole season, Canterbury-Bankstown have based their game plan on all players having good ball-playing skills, toughness, grit and a bit of that old-fashioned niggle.
However, they have struggled to score points all season long, scoring less than 20 points in 19 out of their 27 games this season, including in 10 of their last 12 games.
The reason(s) for this is hard to pinpoint, but I think there is a couple of reasons for this.
Firstly, the lack of explosive power in the forward pack. The Bulldogs forward pack is a strong diesel, you know that they are going to stay the distance, but can they handle the explosive power of the Rabbitohs forward pack?
Secondly, the lack of x-factor in the backline (fullbacks, wingers, centres), especially in the fullback position. Josh Morris is the only player in the Bulldogs outside backs that I believe has the x-factor, but has had his injury worries and niggles.
I’m sorry to say this Bulldogs fans, but the weakest link of the team is the fullback position. Sam Perrett is a very good, solid and honest player, don’t get me wrong, but he lacks that explosiveness, that x-factor that you need from your fullback at this level, something which the Bulldogs would have had if Ben Barba had stayed at the club.
The real strengths for the Bulldogs is their good ball-playing skills, toughness, grit, and their old-fashioned niggle. Josh Reynolds, Trent Hodkinson, James Graham and captain Michael Ennis have really epitomised these strengths – and all four have had really good seasons.
Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, Michael Ennis will not be playing on grand final day after breaking his foot in the preliminary final against the Penrith Panthers. His loss might be greater than the Rabbitohs losing Luke, because he is at the heart of all of these strong points, and is an inspirational leader to his teammates, so losing this focal point for such a game is a massive, perhaps fatal blow to Canterbury-Bankstown’s premiership hopes.
Moses Mbye is likely to come into the line-up to try and mend some of the broken pieces that have been created through injuries. The idea of Reynolds and Mbye sharing their roles is interesting, but it seems to me like that could destabilise the team, something which you don’t need a few days out from the grand final.
The verdict
The South Sydney Rabbitohs have had better form than the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, against stronger opposition than the Bulldogs, and they have a much stronger game that will stand up under pressure better than the Bulldogs game plan, and that is why the Rabbitohs will win their 21st Premiership.
The Bulldogs will stay with the Rabbitohs for the first 40 to 60 minutes of the grand final, but the explosive power and speed of the Rabbitohs will prove too much in the end. The Rabbitohs to end their 43-year premiership drought in style!
Rabbitohs by 13 points.
First tryscorer: Kirisome Auva’a.
Clive Churchill Medalist: Adam Reynolds.
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