When I first read that the Philadelphia Eagles had signed Tim Tebow I initially shrugged it off. The Eagles were simply inviting a media circus to training camp, the same circus that followed Tebow from Denver to New York and then New England.
But then I started to think about it a bit more, and Chip Kelly came to my mind. At first I thought that Chip Kelly was mad and he should lose his powers to shape the Eagles roster. But then I thought a bit more deeply about it and I can now definitely understand the thinking behind the decision.
Tim Tebow is not a good quarterback. Everyone should know that much by now. But plenty of average players have strived in the NFL after being placed in the right system. Tebow is one such player. We saw this in the miracle run of 2011. If you put an outstanding offensive line in front of him and give him a dominant running back, and a staunch defence, he can win you football games.
Okay, that’s a lot of criteria that need to be filled for Tebow to succeed, but the Eagles have quite a few of those already in place. Dominant running back? They only signed the best running back in the game a month ago. Admittedly the DeMarco Murray signing was bizarre and completely unnecessary. Why sign Murray on a five-year $40-million deal, with $21 million guaranteed, just hours after signing Ryan Matthews on a three-year, $11-million contract?
It made absolutely no sense but is perfect for Tebow and is perfect for the type of offence Tebow is likely to run should he find himself starting behind centre in Philadelphia.
Everything that Tebow did successfully in 2011 came on the back of a read-option running game. Chip Kelly loves to run the read-option and running it with two running backs is even better than one. To run the read-option though, requires a strong offensive line. During Kelly’s first season, the Eagles had a terrible offensive line in both pass protection and run defence according to Football Outsiders, ranked 31st and 25th respectively. Last season, after some early struggles the offensive line improved all the way to ninth in pass protection, but fell to 29th in run blocking. This does not bode well for Tebow.
The defence, on the other hand, showed significant improvement from year one to year two of Kelly’s reign. Last year it was the 10th ranked defence in the league by Football Outsiders. Kelly hopes to have shored up the defence even further by signing former Seattle defensive back Byron Maxwell on a mammoth contract and trading for Kiko Alonso.
Regardless of whether Tebow plays or not, the pass defence must improve upon last year. In terms of yardage, they were the second worst pass defence in the league.
The final part of the Tim Tebow puzzle is the system. It goes without saying that Tebow is only successful within a specific system. Slot him into a traditional pro-style offence and he is doomed for failure. Similarly, put him into the spread offence that Urban Meyer ran while Tebow was at Florida and there is every chance that he will succeed. He succeeded, to an extent, in 2011 and Kelly’s system could be modified to allow him to succeed in 2015.
The Kelly offence is all about forcing the defence to show their hand, spread the defenders and read what they are giving you. For example, if you have two wide receivers, two slot receivers and a running back, the defence will likely move cornerbacks to cover the wide receivers and shift two linebackers/cornerbacks out into the slot.
That leaves three or four defensive linemen, two safeties and two linebackers to defend the rest of the field. If the safeties are deep, there is plenty of space to run. If the safeties push into the tackle box, there is space out the back and the deep throw is the right option. Kelly’s quarterbacks read this just by spreading the field.
Combine this by incorporating a number of plays in which the defence doesn’t have time to get set and any quarterback can thrive in the Kelly system, Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez included. Tim Tebow can most certainly thrive in such a situation, especially when throwing on the run.
The other aspect of offence that Kelly takes advantage of is isolating defenders and opening up space deep down the field. There is a reason Nick Foles threw just two intercepts in 317 throws in 2013, because he was rarely forcing throws into double and triple coverage. He didn’t have to because the system he was operating in ensured that the poor decisions that usually lead to such throws aren’t there to make.
If a passer is looking at a stacked tackle box it can be hard to read who is dropping into coverage and who is rushing the passer and the quarterback can be easily deceived. With Kelly’s scheme, this rarely occurs, as there is little scope for linebackers to line up as spies.
Chip Kelly is an offensive maestro and if there is any coach who could devise a system to turn Tim Tebow into a star, it’s Chip Kelly. But there are two quarterbacks currently on the roster who are better than Tebow right now.
Tebow might thrive in Kelly’s system but a quarterback better than Tebow will thrive just as much, if not more. The jury is most certainly still out on Sam Bradford but one thing we do know is that he is better than Tebow.
Bradford and Sanchez might not be as mobile as Tebow but mobility doesn’t help when it turns you into a glorified halfback who throws occasionally, which is what Tebow became in 2011.
Unfortunately signing Tim Tebow is never just a football decision. In a perfect world Tebow would compete for the starting job with Bradford and Sanchez and there would be no external distractions. Kelly would simply see what Tebow has to offer in training camp and if he offered enough he would make the final roster, if not he would simply be cut.
Everyone knows that such a scenario is never happening. There will be so much hype and hysteria surrounding Tebow that this will be impossible. Really, Kelly is probably better off cutting Tebow if he is not the starting quarterback because keeping him on the roster, even if he deserves to be there, will only ensure the circus remains in Philadelphia.
Ultimately, Tebow probably has the tools to succeed in Kelly’s offence and Kelly’s offence is probably the only offence Tebow can succeed in, but there are 40 other quarterbacks in the league who have the tools to succeed in Kelly’s offence also. I can’t see Tebow ever taking a snap in the 2015 regular season.
Oh and one other spanner to throw into the works is Marcus Mariota. Will the Eagles draft him? We’ll have to wait until next weekend to find out.
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