The symbolism is almost too perfect. In the ninth year of their dynasty, the Cats have finally lost the ninth of their lives.
Geelong’s run of elite success from 2007 to 2014 was almost unprecedented. Three premierships, a lost grand final, two preliminary finals losses, another two finals campaigns, a Scarlett letter posted with a toe-poke, and the years of therapy that Tom Hawkins sentenced Ben Reid to during the fourth quarter of the 2011 grand final.
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These Cats were buried a handful of times along the way. Most memorably, they were written off after the 2010 preliminary final, when a younger and better Collingwood team annihilated them by a 41-point margin that flattered Geelong by about five goals.
The Cats were aging, Mark Thompson called it quits, and Gary Ablett Jr, the league’s best player, departed for a warmer climate and the prospect of a sunnier future. It was over.
And then it wasn’t. Geelong’s 2011 premiership is quietly one of the most remarkable triumphs of the modern era. A team with a first year coach and a declining list somehow won 19 games in the home-and-away season and then won all three of its finals by more than 30 points en route to the flag.
A tame one-and-done finals exit in 2012 seemingly signalled the end at last, but the Cats responded in 2013 to get within a nervous Travis Varcoe stab of taking a preliminary final to extra time. 17 wins and a top four regular season finish last year implied that the Cats might just be good forever, but that impressive record hid the cracks that were starting to appear, and eventually broke through in Geelong’s straight sets finals departure.
In 2014 the Cats had an unsustainably excellent record in close games. They went 8-0 in home-and-away games decided by 13 points or less – which reflects a sizeable amount of good fortune (for a reference point, Geelong went 3-5 in such games in 2013).
2014 also marked the year where Geelong transitioned to being a glorified 2008-2012 Carlton, with Joel Selwood in the Chris Judd role of elevating a middling team by himself. Last year on a per game basis Selwood led his team in contested possessions, clearances, frees for (hilariously, Selwood received 68 free kicks last season and the next highest on the team was Tom Hawkins with 25), tackles, effective disposals and handballs, with a lot of these measures not being especially close.
Once again, this year, even in a down season for the skipper, Selwood leads the team in handballs, disposals, contested possessions, frees for, inside 50s and clearances per game. While Selwood is never one to duck from pressure or responsibility (although he will gleefully duck from other things), far too much is being left to him.
The Cats have an easy draw and given the tumult around them, they might even sneak into the finals. But they won’t make any noise, and they’re not a contender in any sense this season.
Geelong is simply not a good football team right now. After nine seasons, it’s finally safe to bury them and not worry about them emerging from the dirt like Uma Thurman in ‘Kill Bill: Volume Two’.
Contested possession differential is perhaps the best statistical indicator of a team’s quality. The top eight teams this year in this stat – Fremantle, Collingwood, West Coast, Adelaide, Richmond, North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Sydney – are arguably the eight best teams in the league. Geelong ranks a woeful 17th in this metric, ahead of only the lowly Lions.
The Cats are the worst clearance team in the league and they have been unable to play the game in their half – ranking 11th in inside 50 differential. Only five teams in the league concede more marks inside 50 than Geelong, and for all their ruck stocks, the Cats are 16th in the league in hit-out differential.
Those are the numbers – the eye test has been just as damning. What was so remarkable about Geelong’s shock loss to Melbourne a month ago was that it didn’t feel shocking at all. Watching that game it just felt like the Demons were a better football team. They were harder, more organised, more disciplined and more fluent in their ball movement.
It feels as bizarre to type this as it will be to read it, but there is every chance that the Melbourne Football Club is closer to a premiership than Geelong. Let the walls start bleeding.
Whether they know it or not, the Cats are in rebuilding mode. The problem is that their list and age profile is currently incongruous to such a task. Jimmy Bartel, Steve Johnson, Corey Enright, James Kelly, Tom Lonergan, Andrew Mackie, Jared Rivers and Matthew Stokes are all on the wrong side of 30 and almost certainly won’t be part of the next Geelong premiership challenge.
The meaningful core of this team is now Cam Guthrie, Mitch Duncan, Steven Motlop, Josh Caddy, Nakia Cockatoo, Mark Blicavs and star holdovers Selwood (27) and Tom Hawkins (26). That’s a solid group to start with, but it needs a half-dozen quality additions, and the Cats are likely at least three years from being genuinely relevant again.
When you’ve lived at the mountaintop for almost a decade, hiking Everest from the bottom again is an arduous, painful task. But past glory informs, and reassures, future success. The Cats have the coach, the captain, the key forward and the Cockatoo as a foundation. The infrastructure is there – but the house needs to be rebuilt.
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