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With finals just a month away Round 20 shapes as one that could have a lot to say on the make-up of the top eight, with some crucial games to be played.
It starts with Collingwood and Sydney at the SCG on Friday night – the Pies may be out of finals contention, or just about, but the Swans desperately need a win if they’re going to get themselves back into the top four after being pushed out by the Bulldogs last week.
Adelaide and North Melbourne will both be looking to sink wins over bottom six sides Essendon and St Kilda on Saturday, as will Richmond and the Bulldogs over Gold Coast and Melbourne on Sunday.
Those four results should all go the way of the finals aspirants but who knows? As Richmond fans could tell you better than anyone, sometimes things that should go smoothly can burst into flames like a pile of towels.
The Giants will look to keep their slim finals hopes alive when they travel to face Port, and Hawthorn will be looking to leap into the top two with a win over old rivals Geelong.
But really, all round long we’ll be waiting for the final game of the round, a top-of-the-table clash between West Coast and Fremantle.
The game of the round
West Coast and Fremantle have met in the intra-state ‘Derby’ 41 times, for 21 wins to West Coast and 20 to Fremantle, but never before has the match been as highly-anticipated as the 42nd incarnation is this week.
Why? Simply because these two teams currently occupy the top two spots on the ladder, remarkable given they were both widely expected to have middling years when the pre-season predictions were getting thrown around.
I’ll admit that I didn’t think West Coast were any chance of making finals, let alone the top four, and thought it was more likely than not that Fremantle would sink into the lower half of the top eight.
Now here we are with just a month of footy left in the season and you’d say that at least one of two teams will almost certainly feature in the Grand Final, and it might even be the case that both of them do.
Last week’s loss was a big one for West Coast as they went down to Hawthorn – while they showed they’re capable of matching it with the best, they fell short of a win and are now in danger of losing second spot on the ladder.
If they drop the game this week, there’s every chance that the Hawks will leapfrog them into second spot.
Fremantle on the other hand are now ten points clear on top of the table, and barring a catastrophe, should close out their first minor premiership in what’s left of the season.
While that’s a huge achievement, they’ll definitely be looking to improve their form which has been average in recent times, and a win over a fellow top four team would be a great way to start.
Who’s going to take the cake? I think the Eagles simply because they’ve got a little more to play for. That said the returns of Nat Fyfe and Michael Johnson for the Dockers this week, coupled with the absence of Nic Naitanui, Jeremy McGovern and Mark LeCras for the Eagles, may well make for a Fremantle victory.
The fizzer
This week’s match-up between Brisbane and Carlton may very well be the least-appetising game we’ve seen all year, and we have seen some absolute train-wrecks in 2015.
The main problem for both sides is that they have essentially nothing in the way of a forward line. Josh Green is Brisbane’s only regular goalkicker and is missing through injury at the moment, while Carlton are currently looking to Andrejs Everitt as their full forward. Enough said.
Of course, that’s what gives this game a slight edge of interest because the prize for the loser is likely to be the wooden spoon, and therefore the number one pick in this year’s draft.
The nominal no. 1 pick is Josh Schache, a big key forward for the Murray Bushrangers who would probably walk straight into the forward lines of either of these teams right now.
There’s no doubt that Brisbane and Carlton are both in the middle of rebuilding stages at the moment and both are seriously in the need of a good key forward prospect or two.
For Brisbane it’s a case of lose this one, and them winning the spoon is all but certain. The Schache family can begin pre-ordering Lions merchandise. If the Lions win, then it’ll come down to which side closes out the year with the worse percentage, assuming none of them has a big upset win in the next three weeks.
Hopefully neither team is planning to go out and tank their way to the no. 1 pick, because as we’ve seen before that just doesn’t end well. Carlton, who definitely didn’t tank for Matthew Kreuzer – wink wink – know this well, as do Melbourne, who also definitely didn’t tank – nudge nudge – for Tom Scully.
The big IN
Michael Johnson might not be the biggest name to make his return to the AFL this week – in fact, given Nat Fyfe is back this week he’s not even the biggest name returning for Fremantle – but he may very well be the most important.
Cast your mind back to Round 10. Michael Johnson is about to play his 200th game, Fremantle are hosting Richmond, looking for their tenth win in a row. Twang goes Johnson’s hamstring, he misses all but the first few minutes of the game, and Richmond romp to an upset win.
Fremantle’s form just hasn’t been the same since and I think it has a lot to do with Johnson. He plays an incredibly important role for them, not just as an excellent key defender, but as a player who knows almost expertly well when to roll off his man and counterattack up the ground.
I dare say that if Johnson can get back to his best form, then Fremantle might very well do the same, reviving their chance at the 2015 premiership.
Along with Fyfe and Johnson for Fremantle, Mike Pyke, Travis Cloke, Steve Johnson, Brian Lake, David Hale and Brett Deledio are some of the other big names to make a return this week.
The big OUT
Adam Treloar has had his name in the headlines this week and not for the kind of reasons that his club will like. The short-term news is that he’s going to miss this week due to a groin injury, the long-term news is that he’s looking more and more likely to jump ship at year’s end.
In the short term that makes the task that much harder for GWS as they are travelling to Adelaide to face the Power this week, desperately needing a win to have any chance at clawing their way back into the top eight.
Despite starting the season extremely well the passage of time, along with a few key injuries – the biggest being Shane Mumford, both literally and figuratively – has seen them slip out of the eight.
The long term concern is that rumours connecting the out-of-contract Treloar to Collingwood are gaining steam, with Damian Barrett claiming a six year deal at roughly $800,000 a year is on the table.
Treloar is out of the team this week, and by the sounds of it, he’ll be out of team for good come October.
The Giants are also missing Stephen Coniglio this week, Adam Cooney, Matthew Lobbe, Scott Selwood, Jeremy McGovern and Mark LeCras are some of the other notable players to miss this week.
Milestones
Steve Johnson – 250 games
James Frawley – 150 games
Trent Cotchin – 150 games
Ivan Maric – 150 games
Sam Mayes – 50 games
Stat of the week
The main reason Carlton are so short of a forward line is that they’ve lost some quality forwards over the years. Former Carlton forwards Josh J Kennedy, Eddie Betts, Jeff Garlett and Jarrad Waite have kicked 167 goals between the four of them this year – that’s just 16 goals less than the entire Carlton team has kicked in 2015.