After five weeks of the season the NFL is starting to split into a few distinct groups.
There are the teams we know are elite – New England and Green Bay – and there are the teams we know are terrible – Chicago, Tampa Bay and San Francisco. There are the teams we think are average at best – Houston and Detroit – and then there are the teams we think are good but we’re still not quite sure about.
The Cincinnati Bengals are in this group. They are emerging as a strong team but we don’t yet have reason to trust them. The New York Giants are also at the lower end of this group; we think they may be good but with that defence we never know what they will do next.
The Bengals are a curious team. For the past four years they’ve qualified for the playoffs, either as a wildcard team or division winner. And for the past four years they’ve lost in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
In each of those four playoff losses quarterback Andy Dalton fell apart, delivering terrible performances. On top of this, his struggles haven’t only been in the playoffs, Dalton’s terrible performances in regular season prime-time matches have been well documented.
Unsurprisingly many of the question marks that have surrounded Peyton Manning for his entire career are now surrounding Dalton. Matt Ryan went through a similar phase until he broke his playoff drought in his fourth attempt in 2012.
However before we discuss the playoffs, the Bengals have to get there. After their win over Seattle that is looking increasingly likely.
The team conceded 24 points but seven of those came on a 23-yard fumble recovery. Interestingly the run defence struggled against a Marshawn Lynch-less running attack despite the fact that it had been the Bengals’ defensive strength heading into the game. Thomas Rawls’ 69-yard touchdown run was the first that the Bengals run defence had conceded all season.
In pass defence Russell Wilson was held to 213 yards, one touchdown and an intercept that came on a deflected pass. They restricted Jimmy Graham to just three catches and 30 yards and sacked Wilson four times. This is the sort of performance that the defence needs to replicate. They can’t rely on Dalton to win a shootout with Alex Smith or Joe Flacco every week.
Speaking of Dalton, we should never judge a quarterback based on one pass but the intercept he threw late in the second quarter on Monday is symbolic of what we’ve seen throughout his career. Every time we have some faith in him he let’s us down. It was a badly underthrown pass behind his receiver. He just does this sort of thing far too frequently to enter the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks.
The good news for Bengals fans is that it’s only his second pick of the season and through five games he’s shown an outstanding ability to protect the football. Apart from that one intercept his performance against Seattle was outstanding. He threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns and was brilliant in resurrecting his team from a 24-7 deficit.
It was the third straight week in which Dalton has thrown for over 300 yards and he now has thrown for 11 touchdowns through five weeks. Although he almost cost his team the match by getting sacked on third down in the last 15 seconds of regulation he did everything he possibly could to overcome a large deficit, against one of the best defences in the competition.
Sitting at 5-0 the Bengals are ranked fourth in DVOA, with the second best offensive DVOA in the competition. However, you can’t help but look at their opponents thus far and think that they’ve had an easy run.
Before this week’s win over Seattle they beat up on Oakland, held off the Chargers, overcame the Ravens in the final two minutes and defeated Kansas City. The odds of these four teams making the playoffs are minuscule; Oakland have improved but likely won’t challenge for the AFC West, the Chargers and Chiefs are both a mess and the Ravens defence is non-existent.
However you can only beat who you are playing and the Bengals have done exactly that. They are now likely to make the playoffs and looking forward they have probably five big tests ahead, most notably two clashes with Pittsburgh that could help determine the division champion.
The New York Giants are even more difficult to figure out than the Bengals. Eli Manning is a book of hieroglyphics, you need a PhD to be able to figure out what he’s going to do next.
If something’s going to go wrong for him and his team it is likely to happen. Throwing the ball out of the end zone instead of taking a sack to end the game, taking crucial delay of game penalties, seeing deflected passes intercepted left, right and centre. It has all happened to Eli in the last twelve months.
Yet he is also capable of delivering moments of brilliance. He can lead his team to victory in the most stunning circumstances. Of course we can never forget the David Tyree helmet catch but he has often delivered with the team crumbling around him. On Monday he was brilliant apart from that one intercept at the end of the first half.
Last year was Manning’s best statistical season of his career, yet his Giants went just 6-10. Based on win-loss record the Giants went backwards, despite the fact that he had the worst year of his career in 2013. The Giants just weren’t a good football team last season and much of that came down to the defence.
While the offence was above average, ranking 15th in offensive DVOA, the defence was well below average, ranking 25th in defensive DVOA. That above average offensive rank was fuelled by Manning’s strong numbers and their first round draft pick, Odell Beckham Jr.
Beckham missed the first four games of last season due to a hamstring injury and still delivered one of the best rookie wide receiver seasons in NFL history. His numbers in the backend of the season were otherworldly, averaging eight catches, 123 yards and a touchdown in the final 10 games of the season.
Normally rookie wide receivers are expected to develop into their second season and evolve into better players who are more comfortable with the nuances of NFL route running. Beckham Jr delivered such otherworldly numbers that it was near-impossible to expect him to do anything but regress. Through five weeks he has regressed, despite his big game against the 49ers. However there is a bigger concern for the Giants and Beckham than simple regression.
Beckham left the game late in the third quarter with a hamstring injury. He did not return. He has a history of hamstring tears. Hamstring tears don’t heal overnight. There is every possibility that Beckham will miss an extended period of time with this latest hamstring injury and even if he tries to play through it he will struggle.
Hamstring injuries are not the sort of injury that you can battle through, they’re not an ankle that you can needle, tape up and play on. If you tear a hamstring there is nothing a needle can do to help you regain your acceleration, there is nothing some tape can do to give you the confidence to fully sprint. Unless you know it is 100 per cent fixed and you have sprinted pain-free at training, you will not perform at your optimum level on game day.
After last year’s defence finished the season ranked 25th in the NFL, the 2015 defence has been much improved. They are ranked ninth in DVOA and feature the best run defence in the league, based on both efficiency and yards per game. The pass defence has struggled, giving up a league-worst 316 yards per game.
It goes without saying that the pass defence is a liability. It cost them the game in week two against Atlanta and it very nearly cost them the game this week against San Francisco. The secondary is repeatedly torched and every time you see a Giants defender in man coverage you fear the worst. It is such an issue that it has the potential to derail the Giants’ season.
Speaking of the 49ers, they finally showed signs of life and Colin Kaepernick finally showed the confidence to throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field. I suspect it had something to do with the pass defence.
The defence struggled on the final drive of the match, however, as Manning and Shane Vereen combined to find gaps in the secondary. Jarryd Hayne did what he has done almost all season, showed promise in his limited opportunities with the ball. But that is how the season will likely go for Hayne, he will have very few opportunities and when he gets an opportunity he needs to make the most of it.
Back to the Giants, the saving grace for New York is that their division has been blown apart by the injury to Tony Romo. The Cowboys can’t beat anyone with Brandon Weeden at quarterback and both Washington and Philadelphia appear to be mediocre at best.
If Manning can drag this team along, they could sneak into the playoffs.The next two weeks against Philadelphia and Dallas will have a huge impact on the makeup of this division, it will be a big step forward for the Giants if they can win both those games.
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