Perhaps the most intriguing storyline this year in tennis will centre on Rafael Nadal.
There are so many unknown questions reverberating.
Is Nadal still a legitimate Grand Slam contender? Is Nadal’s slide terminal? Is his body shot?
Was 2015 just a blip, like Federer’s mediocre 2013? Can he have a renaissance much like the Swiss maestro has in the past two seasons?
Nadal endured a turbulent 2015, where he finally became mortal at Roland Garros and lost his French Open crown. He slumped to number ten mid-year before having a somewhat better backend to the season to finish the year ranked seventh.
Still, Nadal was humiliated just recently by Novak Djokovic in Doha, winning just three games to fuel an overwhelming belief that the gulf has never been bigger with his great rival.
For the first time in more than a decade, the Spaniard comes into the Australian Open as not one of the very leading contenders. But his legendary career ensures he will be seen as somewhat of a threat.
I, however, keep thinking back to when I saw Nadal in person play at Wimbledon last year. Unfortunately, I can’t get the apparitions out of my bleary brain. Losing to German qualifier Dustin Brown was arguably one of his worst losses of his career.
Nadal, one of the greatest men’s players of all time, is generally the embodiment of assuredness and vitality. His sculpted physique is more reminiscent of a short distance sprinter than the archetypical lithe shape of a tennis player.
His rigorous, high-octane game has yielded him 14 Grand Slam titles over the past decade, but it was a shocking sight that day at Wimbledon.
It was a vastly different looking Nadal after his shocking loss to Brown. The Spaniard was so noticeably crestfallen, it was hard to remember seeing him look so visibly dejected.
Normally, Nadal walks around in a frenetic pace with his chiselled chest and powerful shoulders jutting out, projecting a man extremely confident in his ability and standing.
After his loss, Nadal exited centre court in a slight daze. He meandered towards autograph hunters, half-heartedly signing autographs as his once unmistakable confidence was being battered like never before.
Nadal’s face looked beaten, brow furrowed and his shoulders slumped. His career was seemingly at the crossroads.
And six months later, there are still a lot of unknowns. Just a couple of years ago, Nadal seemed a certainty to overtake Federer’s record 17 majors, but now number 15 seems hard to find.
It’s hard to be confident of predicting Nadal’s future with any certainty. He’s 30 years old this year but seems noticeably older. His punishing game was for so long the fulcrum of his domination. His sheer relentlessness broke the will of opponents – even Federer – for many years; now Nadal’s high-powered engine is running on empty.
Nadal is only one year older than Djokovic, but the Serbian looks so far ahead of his rival. Federer is four years older, yet Nadal appears to be flaming out faster than the evergreen Swiss maestro, whose elegance and smoother style is less demanding on the body, and mind, than Nadal’s manic approach.
Even in matches these days, you can see Nadal trying to motivate himself with his old trusty resolve. There are trademark screams and fist pumps. But he can’t always summon the fortitude and his once reliable game is sadly becoming increasingly unreliable.
For those reasons, punctuated by the assortment of injuries he’s endured in recent years, many have started writing off Nadal’s prospects and believe he will forever be deadlocked with Pete Sampras on the list of Grand Slam winners.
It is still too premature to dismiss Nadal as a spent force in men’s tennis. Admittedly, though, it is hard to see Nadal returning to his incomparable best.
For so long, Nadal traded on his aura and intimidation. Opponents always knew they were in for a dogfight and most were unable to resist the pummelling. Right now, opponents, while respectful, know Nadal is unable to hit back every shot and conjure the consistent brute force he’s famed for.
After a horrible injury run during the backend of 2014, Nadal noticeably struggled to reach peak fitness. Importantly, after playing himself into shape last year, Nadal looks once again healthy and his conditioning seems at the requisite level.
He’s the type of athlete that relishes playing. Nadal loves nothing more than playing long gruelling matches. For a cricket parallel, think of Courtney Walsh.
For so long, we’ve been used to Nadal virtually being an automatic for the final stages of Grand Slams. Those days are likely over. He has lost some of his vaunted consistency meaning early round upsets will be more likely.
But it would be folly to dismiss his chances at the Australian Open and future Grand Slams. Nadal will always be a strong contender, so long as he’s healthy. Even with slightly diminished power and foot speed, he still possesses one of the most feared all-round games.
No doubt he’s been in a reflective and brooding mood after a frustrating last 18 months, but his innate doggedness will re-surface. Let’s not forget, Nadal is one of the most mentally tough competitors we’ve seen in sports. He’ll bounce back from adversity. How high he’ll bounce is the great unknown.
There will be longer droughts between Grand Slams as age wearies – remember Federer has only won one major in nearly six years – but the landscape in men’s tennis isn’t so daunting.
Sure, Djokovic is clearly the best player but he won’t win every Grand Slam. Andy Murray is a very good player but he has not been a consistent grand slam winner. Stan Wawrinka is dangerous but unpredictable.
The point is, opportunities will beckon for Nadal. Rest assured, there will be moments, even if intermittent, where Nadal will remind us of his inimitable greatness.
After all, he has the heart of a 14-time Grand Slam champion.
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