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Six months ago England reclaimed the Ashes 3-2 and attention turned to New Zealand and Australia meeting in a total of five Tests across the summer.
Formlines hinted at a close, hard fought series; after all New Zealand had played the same England team for a 1-1 result, the loss marked by a decision by skipper Brendon McCullum not to play for what seemed like a eminently attainable draw.
With Australia in the midst of player retirements and shaky performances by some of the replacements, most armchair selectors – on both sides of the Tasman – had the split of their imaginary Anzac team at around 50/50.
So, with the benefit of hindsight, what does a 4-0 result to Australia tell us about where the Black Caps really sit?
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The obvious answer is, quite a distinct notch below Australia. What is obvious is that most of the players introduced into the Australian Test side were far more Test ready than their New Zealand counterparts.
Mitchell Santner, Henry Nicholls, Matt Henry and Jimmy Neesham are all young and promising, and all are likely to enjoy long, successful Test careers. All showed this potential at different times but none delivered a telling performance.
By comparison, Usman Khawaja, Adam Voges, Josh Hazlewood and Peter Nevill are the real deal right now. And Joe Burns, seen by many as yet to prove himself, batted in Christchurch like a gnarly Test veteran, grinding his side back into the match at first, then eventually into a winning position.
There are a number of reasons for this, not the least more vindication of Australia’s first class structure, which has served so exceedingly well for longer than anyone cares to remember. But that’s another topic for another day.
In light of this series result, and the retirement of their captain, what can New Zealand fans expect from here?
The convention which states that luck balances itself out over time deserted New Zealand in this series, but only the deluded or most partisan will latch onto this as an excuse. On the evidence, this Black Caps side is not as good as what many thought it was.
That said, it is fair to consider context, and deduce that there is reason for optimism, ahead of their next scheduled Test series in South Africa, and beyond.
Taking these five Tests as a whole series, Australia won four from five tosses, two where batting first was an obvious advantage and two where bowling first was the advantageous option. The only toss McCullum won was at Adelaide, the first pink ball Test, where both sides had no clue whether to bat or bowl first.
There were two obvious umpiring howlers, at Adelaide and Wellington, both of which went against New Zealand. Whatever the ifs, buts and maybes, both calls had a telling influence.
None of this is intended to diminish from the performance of the Australians, who can only play what is in front of them. But it is not unreasonable to suggest that something approaching parity with the coin and officials would at least have pushed pressure back onto Australia, and softened the blow on the series scoreboard.
Which in turn, suggests that New Zealand has things to attend to and fix, but at the same time, doesn’t need to overreact.
With McCullum stepping aside, what stands out is the age of the side. At 31, Ross Taylor becomes the veteran, with BJ Watling the only other player over 30.
Opener Martin Guptill is 29 and, as every man and his dog knows, has never translated his one-day ability into Test cricket. There were signs in New Zealand that he was finding a better balance between attack and defence, but he wasted a good start holing out against Nathan Lyon in Wellington. He got two good balls in Christchurch, and in lieu of another pressing option, is worth persevering with.
Tom Latham too has a tendency for soft dismissals after a good start, but has three centuries from 17 Tests, and at only 23, clearly has many better days ahead of him.
Kane Williamson and Taylor, at three and four, are already two of New Zealand’s best ever performed batsmen. The New Zealand leg didn’t see Williamson at his imperious best, but his 97 yesterday was full of merit, against a disciplined and skillful attack, which gave him almost nothing to work with.
From here things get tougher. There is no like for like replacement for McCullum, but there is an opportunity for someone to step forward and cement a middle order spot. Henry Nicholls and Mitchell Santner, both 24, appeal as having good temperament, athleticism in the field, and ability with the bat. But neither is yet a bona-fide Test No.5.
Similarly, Neesham and Corey Anderson, both 25, appear best suited in the No.6 position, as batting/bowling all-rounders.
The solution might be for any of the three bowlers among them to demand their spot as a bowler, Mitchell Marsh style, although performances so far fall short of that. Anderson has 15 wickets at 38, from 12 Tests, Neesham 12 wickets at 39 from nine Tests, and Santner six wickets from his three Tests.
Alternatively, with a batting average of 38, including two centuries, from his nine Tests, Neesham has the ability to make a claim for the No.5 spot, which in turn might push Nicholls into a holding pattern as Taylor’s eventual successor at No.4.
What New Zealand can’t afford to do is to mess around at the selection table, rotating these players around in desperation. They play fewer Tests than all other top nations except for Pakistan as it is; whoever is settled on needs Test matches under their belt.
There are other names on the periphery: Dean Brownlie, Colin Munro, Andrew Mathieson and Colin Munro. But the selectors have made some good decisions already with Nicholls and Santner, and the focus must surely be on developing them further.
Watling is a given, as capable a keeper/batsman as any currently in world cricket. The other problem child is the bowling mix.
Tim Southee, 27, and Trent Boult, 26, have fashioned good records, but both have struggled with injury in recent times, and accordingly are down on pace. Also, they weren’t able to swing the ball in Christchurch with anything approaching the menace of their Australian counterparts. It is surely too simplistic to finger Dimitri Mascarenhas as the reason, although the pending appointment of a new bowling coach does shape as crucial.
Doug Bracewell is 25, Matt Henry only 24; as third seamer options their best days are still ahead. Neil Wagner, 29, enjoyed a day out on Monday, and while his ‘fighting ugly’ style draws admiration, he doesn’t appeal as the best long-term option.
What is lacking, as has always been the case in New Zealand cricket, is genuine pace. Adam Milne clearly has these wheels, but at only 23, not yet the stamina for Test cricket.
Looking further, Ben Wheeler, at 24, with 97 first class wickets, appeals as another pace option, but really, the situation is similar to that of the middle order. There is depth and enough capable players in the mix; what is needed is hard work and demonstrable application of the type of consistent bowling lines which win Test matches.
Mark Craig has been done to death, by Australia and by fans. His 48 Test wickets have simply come at too high a cost. Interestingly, Ish Sodhi has inferior numbers; 27 wickets in 11 Tests, at 52, but if he can be afforded the longer development phase usually allowed for leg-spinners, he should be given another opportunity.
Current players speak in admiration at McCullum’s ability to instil self-belief into the side, within the umbrella of an identifiable culture and identity.
Almost certainly, Williamson will have sufficient tactical nous and the temperament to be a successful Test skipper. Whether he has the same desire as McCullum to mark the side as his own is another thing altogether.
How Williamson adapts to captaincy will be both fascinating to observe, and key to New Zealand’s future success.