The 2015-16 NBL grand final series is here! Can the Perth Wildcats make the most of their home-court advantage, or will the New Zealand Breakers win the premiership from fourth place?
The Wildcats and Breakers have shared the last six premierships between them, and this is now to become seven.
Of those, the Breakers have won four and the Wildcats two. The Breakers though, won three in a row from 2011 to 2013 and are also the reigning premiers.
Despite their complete dominance over the NBL, not many would have expected this grand final during the season.
The Wildcats finished second in the regular season, only behind Melbourne United due to losing the season series against them. Against the Illawarra Hawks in the semi-finals, Perth won Game 1 and utterly dominated Game 3.
Facing Melbourne United in their semis, the Breakers would have been hoping for a win in three games, but they shut down big scorer Chris Goulding, and took it in straight sets.
Which team overcomes the plane flights, time zones and short turnarounds better?
Game 1 is in Perth on Wednesday, before a two-day turn around to play in Auckland, then another two days going back to play Game 3 in Perth.
With Perth and Auckland separated by an eight-hour flight, and a five-hour time zone difference, this series is going to be brutal.
The first game has a 12:30am tip-off New Zealand time, meaning they won’t finish until 2:30am, which could set the tone for the entire series.
Sixteen hours on a plane over the course of three days isn’t going to be much fun either, with flights on Thursday and Saturday presumably.
Another fact to note is that no team has played three games in a week during the season, with the maximum being two. If this series goes to three games, bench players are going to be so important.
Can the Wildcats overcome limited impact from Nathan Jawai?
Nathan Jawai has struggled with back problems all year, so two 8-hour flights in the space of three days are going to hurt, and the Wildcats will have to manage him. It is questionable if he will make a prospective third game.
Tom Jervis is going to have a monster role to play in this series, being the backup to Jawai, but so far this season has handled things well.
Corey Webster’s influence
After a slow start to the season, returning from a trial with NBA club the New Orleans Pelicans, Corey Webster completely turned the Breakers around.
His scoring is among the best in the NBL, and his court vision adds plenty.
His combination with fellow guard Cedric Jackson must fire for the Breakers to win.
How do the Breakers stop Casey Prather
Casey Prather’s energy, aggressiveness and attacking ways have seen him become one of the most electric players in the NBL.
The only chink in the armour is his tendency to commit sloppy fouls, and the Breakers must play on this. Making him play defence, and attacking him at every opportunity, might limit the amount of minutes he has.
The defensive impact of Damian Martin
Damian Martin is one of the best defensive players in the competition, and in this series has the task of locking down the red-hot Webster and Jackson.
This battle could well decide the series.
Aggression on offence could be the key to this series
While both teams rely on good defence, whoever gets themselves into the paint more often, and has the drive to look for quality shots, will move away in this one. The whole series could be flipped on its head by a five-minute cold stretch.
Attacking good defence is not easy, but must be done.
Will Dean Vickerman go out on a high?
A few months ago, Dean Vickerman, coach of the Breakers, sensationally announced that he would be moving on come the end of the season.
Vickerman was at the helm for the last two New Zealand premierships, and assistant for the two before that.
Perth mentor Trevor Gleeson has been a head coach in the NBL for ten seasons, is into his third season at the Wildcats, and is known for his hard-nosed approach towards conceding points and defeat.
Both coaches bring plenty to their teams, but the Breakers will want to see off Vickerman.
Fixtures (All times AEDT)
Game 1: Wednesday, March 3, at Perth Arena (9:30pm)
Game 2: Friday, March 5, at North Shore Events Centre (5:30pm)
Game 3 (if required): Sunday, March 7, at Perth Arena (5:30pm)Perth Wildcats likely squad
Damian Martin, Jermaine Beal, Casey Prather, Matthew Knight, Nathan Jawai
Bench: Tom Jervis, Jesse Wagstaff, Shawn Redhage, Greg Hire, Jarrod Kenny, Rhys Vague, Ben Dixon, Corban WroeNew Zealand Breakers squad
Cedric Jackson, Corey Webster, Thomas Abercrombie, Mika Vukona, Charles Jackson
Bench: Tai Wesley, Alex Pledger, Reuben Te Rangi, Everard Bartlett, Shane McDonald, Shea Ili
Who wins the championship?
Casey Prather and home advantage swings this one the way of the Wildcats, as does their back up big men on the bench.
The series should go to three games, Wildcats 2-1.
The Roar will be covering each and every game of the 2015-16 NBL grand final series live, with commentary, analysis and opinions throughout.
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde
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