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Many words have been written about Carlton in recent months – with no shortage of them on The Roar. Much debate has been about whether the Blues can eke out enough wins to finish above the WADA-decimated Essendon Bombers and avoid consecutive wooden spoons.
The Bombers’ woes seem temporary, but the two clubs have more in common in 2016 than being favourites to finish in the bottom four.
While new Essendon coach John Worsfold tries to find the balance between giving his young players the best opportunity to develop and preventing them from being beaten down by the AFL grind, the Blues have their own development concerns.
Despite being in the early stages of a rebuild, Carlton have 17 players on their list in the prime age of 25-30 – tied with West Coast and Port Adelaide for the most in the league.
If you expand that to all players older than 25, the Blues’ veterans number 18, equal fourth with Hawthorn and Port Adelaide, and behind only West Coast (19), North Melbourne (20) and Fremantle (21) – with the exception of the Blues, all of those teams have premiership aspirations.
In the best 22 presented in Cam Rose’s preview, only six players are younger than 23 – and among them are 22-year-olds Sam Kerridge and Blaine Boekhorst, both of whom have a lot to prove.
It’s one thing for Marc Murphy, Kade Simpson, Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer to play every week, but when you throw in Andrew Walker, Dale Thomas (a shadow of the player Carlton thought they were recruiting), Michael Jamison, Zach Tuohy, Sam Rowe, Matthew Wright, Levi Casboult and Ed Curnow, there aren’t many spots left for youngsters to get a feel for the big time.
What’s worse, in a twisted sort of way, is that those veteran players aren’t bad. They’re not good enough to make Carlton good, but from the full-back line to the half-forward line, it looks somewhat competitive, and most of those players will be hard to keep out of the best 22.
Like Worsfold, new Carlton coach Brendon Bolton and his match committee must find the right balance between fielding a competitive team and giving young players senior opportunities.
The natural attrition of the season will no doubt do some of Bolton’s difficult work for him, but if they’re serious about rebuilding properly, and aren’t trying to take shortcuts, then a lot of those 25-30-year-olds will be playing for the Northern Blues this year.
Finding the right development balance will be further complicated by a group of unproven 20-25-year-olds who have been brought in from other clubs – mostly Greater Western Sydney.
Carlton face monumental list turnover in coming seasons, and they need to find out if Jason Tutt (24), Andrew Phillips (24), Daniel Gorringe (23), Jed Lamb (23), Mark Whiley (23), Kerridge (22), Liam Sumner, Lachie Plowman (21) and Kristian Jaksch (21) will be part of that turnover or part of the club’s next finals campaign.
The Blues are coming from a hell of a long way back. They finished last year dead last in both points for and points against and lost ten games by ten goals or more. But with Bolton on board, and what looks like a more modern gameplan, Carlton could look very different this season in more ways than just the players on the park.
Smart Carlton people know they’re in for a difficult time for the foreseeable future. What will make that easier will be seeing the development of youngsters, one or more of their recycled recruits becoming good players, and causing a few upsets along the way – playing an exciting style of footy wouldn’t hurt either.
It’s easy to dismiss the value of high draft picks by pointing to the great players around the AFL who have been taken with selections outside the top ten, but the fact is, it’s easier to find stars at the top of the draft.
Ideally, 2016 will see the Blues pump games into young players who represent the future, improve enough to win six to eight games and cut the number of blowouts without rising out of the bottom four.
The list needs to get younger, but hopefully the Carlton Football Club has matured enough to see the bigger picture.