The drama and elegance of the European clay court swing is finally upon us, and will commence in majestic style with the Monte Carlo Masters.
Along with the much anticipated return of Swiss Maestro Roger Federer, the tennis world will have all eyes on two men: Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.
Djokovic’s present status as the best player on the planet is undisputed, and he enters Monte Carlo the defending champion. In 2015, Djokovic looked insurmountable in every match he played.
Even Federer, who managed to beat him twice in best of three sets in Doha and Cincinnati, could not conquer the Serb in the best of five finals of Wimbledon and the U.S Open.
Djokovic’s baseline defence is startling, his precision is second to none, and his self-belief goes beyond a simple matter of confidence. To Djokovic, winning is an existential certainty.
However, of late Djokovic has looked wobbly. Yes, his supporters will clamour from the rooftops he is still winning matches, the vast majority in straight sets. But the wins are not coming anywhere near as easily as they did in 2015.
The marathon five setter he played in the fourth round of the Australian Open against Gilles Simon was the first of a serious of baffling close calls. Djokovic was then thrashed in the first set of his opening match at Indian wells by world No. 149 Bjorn Fratangelo, 6-2.
He was pushed to two nail-bitingly close tiebreak sets by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarter-finals of the same tournament – unheard of in 2015.
In Miami, Djokovic was thumped around the court by 22-year-old Austrian and world No.14 Dominic Thiem in the round of 16, who racked up a remarkable 15 break points against him. Of course, Djokovic’s experience shone through, and he saved all but one of them.
He then had another too-close-for-comfort encounter with world No.13 David Goffin in the semi-final, 7-6, 6-4.
However, regardless of the hints that players are perhaps solving the Serbian puzzle, this is Novak Djokovic we’re talking about. He’s fit, he’s confident, and the fact he can still win two Masters 1000s in a row not playing to the standard of 2015 is distinctly impressive.
To deny he is the favourite to win Monte Carlo would be decidedly foolish.
But what of Rafael Nadal, the clay court king? Nadal has won in Monte Carlo an extraordinary eight times, a feat unlikely to be beaten. His records on the red dirt are legendary – most prominently his nine French Open titles.
There is a reason they call him the ‘King of Clay’; he is undeniably the greatest clay courter the game has ever seen.
However, after coming back from a seven-month absence at the end of 2014, suffering from a wrist injury and appendicitis, he endured what he called a ‘mental injury’ in 2015. Unable to control his anxiety on court, he failed to win a slam or a Masters for the first year in a decade.
However, he had a resurgent run in the second half of 2015, clinching the most successful indoor hard court season of his career.
In addition, Nadal’s run at Indian Wells was wonderfully encouraging. He stormed his way to the semi-finals, roaring through some tough opponents in the process. Battling strong winds, he defeated big-serving Gilles Muller, followed by his Australian Open first round slayer Fernando Verdasco. He pushed through a three set thriller against terrifyingly talented 18-year-old Alexander Zverev, and world No.6 Kei Nishikori in the quarters.
As for his semi-final against Djokovic, it was the closest match they had played in two years. Nadal had a set point in the first set, and then pushed it to a close tiebreak. Don’t let the second set score line of 6-2 fool you; it took 40 minutes of hammering at the Nadal serve for Djokovic to actually break him twice, and two hours to notch a straight sets win.
Given the draw in Monte Carlo, Djokovic and Nadal will not meet until potentially the final. And what an interesting match-up it would be. Djokovic knows the Nadal game, and is definitely the more confident player. It would come as no surprise if he recorded another straight sets win.
However, if Nadal can pull out his very best, he is still the superior clay courter. The way for the Spaniard to beat the Serb is to throw off the demons of 2015, harness whatever he found at Indian Wells, and play without fear.
Whether or not Rafael Nadal can achieve this over the next week remains to be seen. As usual, we can expect an excellent performance from Djokovic. Regardless, if Nadal and Djokovic battle it out on the clay once more, it could be a thrilling contest. With the French Open looming, everybody will be paying close attention to the outcome.
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