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Doomy and gloomy pre-season predictions for Sydney have, so far, been proven wrong.
Lance Franklin is in formidable form and looks set for another crack at the hundred-goal mark.
He has an excellent sidekick in Isaac Heeney, and with Kurt Tippett spending plenty of time in the ruck, Sydney’s forward line is operating as well as it has since the arrival of the two big forwards.
Even a defence held up by two ageing veterans – Ted Richards and Heath Grundy – has surpassed expectations thus far. The addition of the impressive Callum Mills to the half-back line has certainly helped, but underestimating the contribution of Grundy, in particular, would be unjust.
But last weekend’s loss to Richmond has raised concerns about Sydney’s stance as premiership contenders.
First, a couple of caveats. No team will ever go through a season unblemished. Sydney, despite their excellent record over the course of seasons past, have made a habit of losing to the Tigers – this was their third loss on the trot against Damien Hardwick’s men.
The loss to Richmond, though, was Sydney’s first outing this season without Josh Kennedy. A coincidence? Possibly, but the manner in which the Tigers won would indicate otherwise.
When Richmond made their five-goal run to start the final quarter – a streak without which the Tigers certainly would have lost – they dominated the contested ball and clearances. The Sherrin hardly moved towards Sydney’s goal until a quarter of the term had elapsed.
That small snippet of play was the most obvious example, but Richmond had the better of the contested ball all night. They won the clearance count 35-28 and had five more contested disposals than the Swans, 145-140.
Both stats are worrying for Sydney. So far this season, they have been the best side in the AFL at winning the ball in close, averaging 163 contested possessions per game. That’s seven more than any other team.
While they’re not peerless when it comes to clearances, their 38.3 per game is still on par with a number of other strong sides, including Adelaide (37.9) Hawthorn (38.6) and Geelong and the Western Bulldogs (both 39.8).
That the Swans were held so far under their season averages in those categories without Kennedy is worrisome, particularly given Richmond’s woeful form over the six weeks prior.
To be fair, Richmond’s performance against Sydney far exceeded any they had produced earlier in the season.
But the Swans’ midfield is known for being an elite outfit; their group of Luke Parker, Dan Hannebery, Tom Mitchell, Kieren Jack and Jarrad McVeigh is on par with any other in the AFL.
Unfortunately for them, it seems, they rely on Kennedy to truly click.
This year, Kennedy is fifth in the league – excluding Jacob Hopper, who has played just the single game – for contested possessions (15.3) and second in clearances (7.7). He may not use the ball particularly efficiently (his effective disposal percentage is just 69.2 per cent), but he wins the ball in close and gets it going in the right direction.
As lethal as Sydney’s forward line is, they need the ball in their forward fifty to score. Long as Franklin’s range is, not even he is going to be kicking goals from half-back.
Franklin will no doubt dominate the headlines for the rest of the season – a player with a genuine shot at cracking the century comes around so rarely these days – and he does have the ability to win games on his own boot.
But to gain a true reflection of Sydney’s ability to win in September, Josh Kennedy is the man to focus on.