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Week 4 is upon us, Ryan Tannehill has shown he indeed can’t cover on the road and like Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing a pass into double coverage it’s time to just say ‘screw it’ and get into the picks.
Colts (-2.5) at Jaguars (+2.5)
The London games are upon us, as the Jags take on the Colts at their home ground fortress in London. Gus Bradley must be the most nervous man on the plane after London’s ability to sound the death knell for coaches in recent times (vale Joe Philbin). Both these teams have been bad, but the Colts have a competent quarterback, and Jags have…..Blake Bortles.
Pick: Colts
Best Bet: Colts Line ($1.88)
Titans (+4.5) at Texans (-4.5)
JJ Watt is out and with that so is my interest in watching this game. The Titans have been frisky enough to hang around in their games so far and pull of a road win at Detroit, while the Texans come off being Bellichick’d ten days ago.
The Titans should be enough to keep it close, and depending on Mariota’s ability to take care of the ball could steal a win and be in box seat in the putrid toxic waste land that masquerades as the AFC South.
Pick: Texans
Best Bet: Titans Line ($1.94)
Bills (+5.5) at Patriots (-.5.5)
Well firing the offensive coordinator seemed to fix the defence for Rex Ryan despite all conventional wisdom to the contrary. The bad news? Bill Bellicheck has had ten days in a film dungeon somewhere scheming on how to destroy the Bills.
In fairness, this is probably overkill for the Bills but it doesn’t bode well for them anyway.
Pick: Patriots
Best Bet: Patriots outright ($1.30)
Seahawks (-.2.5) at Jets (+2.5)
Ryan Fitzpatrick treated us last week to the full Sixpatrick experience; it was glorious. At one point he started throwing passes so close to Chiefs defenders that they were picking him off with a look of utter bemusement.
Bad news for the Jets is that the Seahawks defence is really really good and once Fitzpatrick starts being the full Fitzpatrick history says there is no going back.
Look for a defensive slugfest in which a one-legged Russell Wilson is better than a full compliment of limbs Ryan Fitzpatrick (or even scarier “And here comes Geno Smith!”).
Pick: Seahawks
Best Bet: Under 41 Total Points ($1.68)
Browns (+7.5) at Washington (-7.5)
The Browns have been better than 0-3 suggests and could easily have won a game or two to this points. The Washington Football Team got their first win last week courtesy of Eli Manning’s unwavering determination to throw fourth quarter interceptions.
Nothing Washington and Kirk Cousins has done convinces me they should be favoured by this many points, but they should be able to eek out a win at home.
Pick: Washington
Best Bet: Browns Line ($1.88)
Lions (-3) at Bears (+3)
The Bears are the worst team in football. They were already shallow, but now with injuries taking hold (top two RB’s as well as Lamarr Houston and Pernell McPhee) they are in serious trouble.
This defence isn’t stopping anyone and a revitalised Matt Stafford under Jim Bob Cooter’s offense will be able to move the chains all day long. The Lions will struggle on the defensive side of the ball as well with no DeAndre Levy and Ziggy Ansah so like for a high scoring Detroit win.
Pick: Lions
Best Bet: Over 51 Total Points ($2.54)
Panthers (-3) at Falcons (+3)
This Falcons offense is flying in the last two weeks, but that was against a historically bad Oakland performance and the tyre fire that is presenting as an NFL defence in New Orleans.
Things will come a lot harder against the division champs who will be relieved to not have to see the Vikings defence again this week. Look for Cam Newton to bounce back and rid himself of the trauma of Everson Griffen appearing in the backfield over damn play.
Pick: Panthers
Best Bet: Panthers Line ($1.86)
Raiders (+3.5) at Ravens (-3.5)
Could the Ravens be the worst 3-0 team to ever go 4-0? Yes. For all the hype Oakland is impressing nobody so far this year and will need to travel to the eastern timezone for this one.
In a shoddy affair the Ravens will somehow eek out another unimpressive win and move to mirage-worthy 4-0.
Pick: Ravens
Best Bet: Oakland Line ($1.86)
Broncos (-3.5) at Bucs (+3.5)
So far this season the Tampa run game has been on the side of a milk carton – missing. What does this mean? This means a lot of dropping back and passing for Jameis Winston.
This means Von Miller and co are salivating at the prospect of rushing the passer all day long. The Broncos have shown they have the receiver talent to produce offensive to go with their historically good defence, and will roll on to 4-0.
Pick: Broncos
Best Bet: Broncos Outright ($1.62)
Rams (+8) at Cardinals (-8)
The Cardinals laid an absolute stink bomb last week to destroy the soles of degenerate gamblers across the world. Carson Palmer has been thanking God nightly that Sixpatrick happened a few hours later or his train-wreck fourth quarter pick-fest in Buffalo would be getting more attention.
Even if Palmer is regressing, Arians is too good a coach and their is too much talent on this team for them to not bounce back at home. Nothing the Rams does makes sense in any way but they are 2-1, long live Case Keenum.
Pick: Cardinals
Best Bet: Rams Line ($1.92)
Cowboys (-3) at 49ers (+3)
The ground game is ramping up and Dak Prescott is looking solid, so it’s the perfect time for Dez Bryant to get injured so the Cowboy’s fans can lose their minds. Luckily, you don’t need Dez Bryant to beat the 49ers when the starting offense comes out each week with Blaine Gabbert under centre.
If there is a more uninspiring quarterback in the league I would like to know, and then have them traded to the Pats so Bill Bellichick can win a Superbowl with them.
Pick: Cowboys
Best Bet: Cowboys -2/Under 45 Points combo ($3.40)
Saints (+4) at Chargers (-4)
There will technically be two defences playing in this game but you will have to look really hard to find one. Drew Brees is throwing for a bucketload of yards but playing with the pressure of a guy who knows he needs to score 50 every week which is manifesting in uncharacteristic mistakes.
Phillip Rivers is wizard at this point, guys keep going down and he keeps conjuring offense from nothing. The prediction for this one is points with a chance of more points.
Pick: Chargers
Best Bet: Over 49 Total Points ($1.61)
Chiefs (+5.5) at Steelers (-5.5)
LeVeon Bell is back and just in time to help the Steelers after the blowout in Philly at the hands of the Wentz machine. KC have struggle against the run this year, so expect the Williams/Bell combo to wrack up some yardage.
On the other side of the ball the Chiefs offense should play into the Steelers defensive plans with their underneath throws to pursue and tackle for limited gain.
Pick: Steelers
Best Bet: Pittsburgh over 21 Points ($1.42)
Giants (+5.5) at Vikings (-5.5)
We thought it was a new Giants this year until Eli went all Eli last week. The Vikings are really good, and have difference makers at every level of the defence to go with the superhuman Stefon Diggs at WR.
Against all logic, and purely on Eli being Eli, it’s time to pick the Giants because this is just the kind of game they will find some way to win.
Pick: Giants
Best Bet: Giants Line ($1.94)
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