Coming off a crushing first Test loss, Australia now find themselves in a must-win situation for the second Test against South Africa, which gets underway on Saturday at Blundstone Arena in Hobart.

With the exception of Day 1, Australia were comprehensively outplayed by South Africa at the WACA, despite Hashim Amla not making runs and Dale Steyn being injured for most of the tourists’ brilliant bowling effort.

Things were looking up for the Aussies after the first day’s play when they reduced South Africa to a total of just 242, which looked to be well below par.

Australia then came out, blunting the South African quicks, before racing to 0/105 at stumps with David Warner and Shaun Marsh both looking good, the pressure was right on for the tourists.

That’s where the fun ended for the hosts though, as they capitulated from 1 for 158 to being all out for 244, losing 10 for 86, leaving them with a lead of just two.

Having to bat last anywhere isn’t much fun, but with a massive crack on the WACA wicket, it was clear Australia were going to need to bowl well and hold onto every chance that came their way.

They didn’t even come close to achieving either of those goals, though, as South Africa built a monster 8 for 540 to set Australia 539 for victory.

After having South Africa 2 for 45 at one point, the score was blown out by a 250-run partnership from Dean Elgar (127) and JP Duminy (141) who top scored for the innings.

To take something from the match, Australia needed either to bat out the remaining five sessions or set a new world record for the highest successful chase.

After making a positive start, though, Warner was run out by some superb fielding from Temba Bavuma, and it all went south from there. Only Usman Khawaja (97) and Peter Nevill, who made an unbeaten half-century, provided some highlight for Australia.

Steve Smith was dismissed fairly cheaply for the second straight innings, Adam Voges barely troubled the scorers and Mitchell Marsh also failed with the willow.

The only positive they can take out of the second innings is Peter Nevill and his batting with the tail, which forced South Africa to bowl 119 overs, including 31 from Kagiso Rabada. Despite taking five wickets for the innings, the short turnaround for the Hobart Test won’t leave him, or the rest of South Africa’s quicks, in the best condition.

The loss leaves Australia in a must-win situation not only for the Hobart Test, but the following day-night match in Adelaide, both of which they could struggle in due to conditions that suit swing bowling.

Dale Steyn has been ruled out of the series for the tourists with a shoulder injury and is likely to be replaced by Morne Morkel, while Australia will be without Shaun Marsh and Peter Siddle, replaced by Joe Burns and Joe Mennie respectively.

Recent History

Last 5 matches
November 3-7 2016, South Africa won by 177 runs in Perth
February 12-16 2014, Australia won by 281 runs at Centurion
February 20-24 2014, South Africa won by 231 runs in Port Elizabeth
March 1-5 2014, Australia won by 245 runs in Cape Town
November 30 – December 3 2012, South Africa won by 309 runs in Perth

Last 5 series
Australia 2 – South Africa 1, in South Africa 2014
South Africa 1 – Australia 0, in Australia 2012-13
South Africa 1 – Australia 1, in South Africa 2011-12
Australia 2 – South Africa 1, in South Africa 2009
South Africa 2 – Australia 1, in Australia 2008-09

Will we see a result in Hobart?
Unfortunately, the weather for Hobart looks terrible, meaning the chance of a result is incredibly low. Most betting agencies are paying odds of under $2 for a draw, while the odds for both sides are over $3.50.

Rain is predicted to fall on all of the first three days, and while the sun might come out on the final two days, it’s incredibly doubtful at this point that there will be anywhere near enough cricket to force a result.

While that would set up an interesting final Test in Adelaide, where Australia at best could hope to draw the match and retain the trophy, South Africa would be looking to continue the trend of these sides winning away from home, this time under lights.

The one saving grace that might see us get a result is the aggressiveness of both sides. While Faf du Plessis’ second innings declaration in Perth could have been seen as conservative, both sides attack in the way they play the game.

Whether it be because of the batting, where run rates are generally above average, or because both sides generally set attacking fields and look to take wickets, it might not take five days of cricket to get a result, particularly if there is enough grass on the wicket.

More resistance is needed from Australia’s middle order
Australia’s middle order absolutely crumbled in the first innings of the first Test, and didn’t do a great job in the second either, despite Peter Nevill scoring 60 and both Steve Smith and Mitchell Marsh getting starts.

To lose ten wickets for under 100 runs in the first innings after the brilliant start David Warner and Shaun Marsh had got them off to was rubbish.

If the middle order was considered to be 4, 5, 6 and 7, then scores of 0 for Steve Smith, 27 for Adam Voges, 0 for Mitchell Marsh and 23 for Peter Nevill are completely unacceptable.

While Kagiso Rabada was the main man for South Africa throughout the Test thanks to the injury of Steyn, bowling with pace and accuracy, he was backed up well by Vernon Philander and debutant Keshav Maharaj.

Put simply, it doesn’t matter what the openers do if the middle order is going to fold in half like that, and the match was essentially over as those wickets fell.

Adam Voges is starting to join others in being under pressure for his spot, so runs for the veteran are key in this match.

It will be the same in Hobart if the middle order doesn’t fire. Simple as that.

South Africa were dominant and Hashim Amla didn’t score any runs
Maybe the scariest part of the first Test for the hosts was the way South Africa were able to dominate in the second innings and recover in the first, yet their most experienced player, Hashim Amla, barely troubled the scorers.

While Amla’s form has been questionable in recent times, including their recent series against New Zealand, he was still expected to lead from the front in Australia.

If Amla is to score runs in this second Test, which is something that is likely to happen no matter what his form has looked like, it’s going to add another element to South Africa’s already-fearsome side.

Amla making a decent amount of runs will also mean the middle order, led by JP Duminy and Faf du Plessis, will be protected for a longer period, and either the ball will be older or the bowlers fatigued by the time they get to the crease.

With Mitchell Starc’s fitness still questionable (more on that shortly), having the Aussies bowl more overs could be key to victory in not only this Test, but when they go to Adelaide, so Amla batting for a longer period of time is essential.

The pressure is on Kagiso Rabada
Coming into the series, it looked like the pressure would be on more experienced quicks Steyn and Philander, however after an incredible performance at Perth, Rabada is suddenly the spearhead of the tourist’s attack.

Five wickets in the second innings to back up a strong first innings performance now lands the role of key man squarely on his back.

Whether Rabada is up to it with his lack of experience is another question, but without pressure leading into the first test, he assumed the role and did a fantastic job.

Mitchell Starc’s fitness is worrying… again
Starc’s fitness was a major concern coming into the first Test and his performance didn’t do much to provide an answer of any substance.

While Starc proved himself able to bowl at something near his normal pace, and he sent down a grand total of 49.4 overs between the two innings, his fitness didn’t appear to hold as well in the second innings when things weren’t going right for the Aussies.

While he took four wickets in the first innings and seemed to resume normal transmission as the Aussie spearhead, the second saw him take just one and lack the pace and consistency needed to make breakthroughs.

With Starc joined in the attack by Josh Hazlewood and Joe Mennie for this Test, he is the man who must provide the difference with pace, bounce and that ‘scare factor’ that only a genuine fast bowler can bring.

If he isn’t fit enough to do the job, then it’s hard to see Australia getting the wickets to win, even on a green wicket with plenty of moisture in Hobart.

What is wrong with Nathan Lyon?
Australia’s greatest off spin bowler is struggling at the moment. He suffered through a disastrous tour of Sri Lanka and only took two wickets in the first Test.

With both of those wickets coming in the first innings, it’s even more worrying. Given the way South Africa were knocked over in their first dig, it wasn’t up to Lyon to take those wickets.

But when the going got tough in the second innings, that’s where he needed to stand up. Unfortunately he went for 146 runs in 34 overs, not taking a single wicket and rarely looking like making a breakthrough.

There have been calls for Lyon to be dropped for the third Test with Steve O’Keefe in the wings, and with Lyon having problems helping the Aussies get the ball to reverse swing thanks to his grip, it could become a real problem carrying him in the side if he can’t start taking more wickets.

Key Information

First ball: 10:30am (AEDT), Saturday, November 12
Venue: Blundstone Arena, Hobart
TV: Live, Nine Network
Betting: Australia $3.95, Draw $1.67, South Africa $4.35
Overall Record: Played 92, Australia 50, South Africa 22, Drawn 20
Umpires: Richard Kettleborough and Aleem Dar

Hours of play

*Note, times may be changed and play can be extended for half an hour to allow the full 90 overs to be bowled in a day.

Likely teams

Australia
1. David Warner (vc)
2. Joe Burns
3. Usman Khawaja
4. Steve Smith (c)
5. Adam Voges
6. Mitchell Marsh
7. Peter Nevill (wk)
8. Mitchell Starc
9. Joe Mennie
10. Josh Hazlewood
11. Nathan Lyon

12. Callum Ferguson

South Africa
1. Stephen Cook
2. Dean Elgar
3. Hashim Amla
4. Jean-Paul Dumiy
5. Faf du Plesis (c)
6. Temba Bavuma
7. Quinton de Kock (wk)
8. Vernon Philander
9. Morne Morkel
10. Kagiso Rabada
11. Keshav Maharaj

12. Kyle Abbott

Prediction

Hard to see a result here with the weather, but if it holds off for enough of a game to be played, the wicket is going to be green and have plenty of moisture in it.

Based on the way Australia batted in the first Test, it’s difficult to see them doing a better job here – although David Warner looked solid and Steve Smith must be due for a score.

In trying conditions, it could be a chance as well for others – particularly Mitchell Marsh – to stand up and cement their spot in the team.

Nonetheless, Kagiso Rabada was too good in the first Test, and Morne Morkel getting plenty of bounce isn’t going to make things any easier for the Aussie batsmen.

As long as Dean Elgar and Stephen Cook see off the new ball, protecting Hashim Amla and the middle order for long enough, an Australian victory looks like the most unlikely of the three possible results.

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