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Nathan Lyon no longer deserves to be an automatic selection in the Australian side. Not because he is in awful form, but due to the all-round quality of Steve O’Keefe.
In his past six first-class matches, O’Keefe has taken 34 wickets at an average of 15, and underlined his all-round ability by making 162 runs at 32, taking his career first-class batting average to 29.
While O’Keefe was running amok against WA on a turning deck in the Sheffield Shield this week, taking 8-106, Lyon returned his worst-ever match figures in a home Test of 2-184.
Lyon bowled well in the first innings, taking 2-36 from ten overs before having a nightmare second innings, with 0-148. Steve Smith copped criticism for not using Lyon earlier in the second dig.
When he was handed the ball the veteran off spinner posed no threat and offered his skipper zero control as the Proteas cruised to a huge lead.
Lyon’s plight became so dire that he was manhandled by Proteas tail enders Keshav Maharaj and Vernon Philander. That pair clattered Lyon for 48 runs from just 53 balls.
Adding to Lyon’s humiliation was the fact he was outbowled by the debutant spinner Maharaj. The South African left armer took 4-150 from 58 overs. Maharaj’s unerring accuracy allowed him to build pressure upon which other bowlers capitalised.
He conceded a miserly 2.6 runs per over, compared to Lyon’s expensive rate of 4.2 runs per over.
Lyon has a fine record in Australian conditions but I sense he will be under pressure to perform in the second Test due to the all-round package O’Keefe offers.
When Rod Marsh said Joe Mennie was picked ahead of Jackon Bird because of his superior batting it seemed to me an indication the Australian selectors are concerned about the weakness of Australia’s tail. Only Bangladesh have averaged less runs from their numbers 8 to 11 in Tests this year (with Mitch Marsh and Nevill of course struggling at 6 and 7).
As I wrote last week, Rod Marsh’s statement could be taken as a sign Australia are wary of the significant advantage upcoming opponents India and England boast due to their very strong tails.
If the selectors are paying closer attention to the run-scoring output of their tail, that will only strengthen O’Keefe’s case.
The left arm spinner has a first-class batting average of 29 – the same as Australia’s number six Mitch Marsh. That’s not to suggest O’Keefe is as gifted a batsman as Marsh, but he does offer significant value with the blade, particularly in comparison to Nathan Lyon.
O’Keefe isn’t just talented with the blade, he’s also gritty, an attribute sorely lacking in Australia’s batting this year. In his last Test, against Sri Lanka at Pallekele, O’Keefe displayed wonderful patience and a tight defence in facing 178 balls for the match, with a grafting knock of four from 98 balls giving Australia hope of an unlikely draw.
Meanwhile, Lyon has made just 53 runs at an average of seven this year in Tests. The off spinner’s batting has gone backward after gradually improving across the first three years of his Test career. In the first half of Lyon’s career, across 29 Tests, he averaged 17 with the bat and looked to be on his way to becoming a handy lower order player.
But in his past 29 Tests Lyon’s averaged has plummeted to 11, the figure of a hopeless tail ender. Lyon is a genuine number 11 batsman. The problem for Australia is that so is paceman Josh Hazlewood, who has averaged only eight with the bat in the past 18 months.
And Peter Siddle’s Test average of 14 is very low for a number nine in the modern era, particularly when England and India can bat at number nine guys like Chris Woakes (Test batting average of 35) and Bhuvneshwar Kumar (24).
Right about now there are Roarers shaking their fists, annoyed that I’m writing about the runscoring of Australia’s tail when their batsmen haven’t been doing their job. There’s no doubt Australia’s top seven must lift. But lower order depth is an issue which cannot be ignored – it can be the difference between winning and losing.
As I argued in a piece last year, the batting ability of bowlers must be taken into account when selecting a Test team in the modern era.
That doesn’t mean an inferior bowler should get selected because of their batting ability. In line ball selection calls, however, where little or nothing splits two bowlers, runscoring potential should be considered. That’s why, right now, I think Lyon could be under heavy pressure from O’Keefe for his Test position.
I would argue that, in the three Tests they have played together, O’Keefe has bowled marginally better than Lyon in each match. The raw figures back that up, with O’Keefe taking ten wickets at 36, compared to Lyon’s ten wickets at 46.
Lyon has the obvious advantage of having 213 Test wickets in the bank, but O’Keefe could point to his outstanding first-class record of 215 wickets at an average of 23.
With so little to separate the spinners, it could become relevant that O’Keefe has scored 20 more runs per match than Lyon across his first-class career. Given the fragility of Australia’s top seven, the prospect of getting an extra 20 runs a Test from the tail could be tempting for the selectors.
Lyon has kept his spot as the first choice spinner, and justifiably so, because of his good Test record of 213 wickets at 33. I’ve long been a great admirer of Lyon and have defended him against criticism often in the past.
But he can ill afford another toothless display against South Africa at Hobart. O’Keefe is breathing down his neck.