The dash to the W-League finals is heating up, three teams having a realistic chance of taking out the premiership, and three more fighting to make the final spot.
Here’s the wrap-up of where each team is sitting and their chances of making it through.
Current position: first – 22 points (GD +11)
Remaining opponents: Newcastle (H) and Adelaide (A)
A couple of weeks ago, you would have said Sydney were a shoe-in for first place, after they destroyed Canberra Untied, their nearest opposition.
To be fair, I don’t think this has changed, even if Newcastle are a thorn in their opposition’s sides with their strong defence, and Adelaide at home is never an easy assignment (just ask the Wanderers).
But while taking all six points sees them keep top spot, a win-draw combo means sweating on goal difference with Canberra, and anything less could see Sydney drop as low as third.
Current position: Second – 20 points (GD +9)
Remaining opponents: Wanderers (A) and Melbourne Victory (H)
How badly will that Adelaide game last week come back to haunt Canberra?
The officiating was poor, with video evidence proving at least two goals were wrongly ruled offside. But a strong performance last weekend against Perth, a fellow finals contender, put the train back on the tracks.
A home final is up for grabs, but there will be no room for complacency against opponents that have something to prove to round off their seasons.
If Canberra keep the foot on the accelerator they will score goals, but conceding them is a risk and any points they drop, they need Perth to do the same.
Current position: third – 20 points (GD +4)
Remaining opponents: Adelaide (H) and Wanderers (A)
Canberra will say their poor game against Sydney was a blip on the radar and Perth will be taking that same approach after going down 7-2 in the nation’s capital last week.
Where Canberra were haunted by dropping points, Perth will be haunted by dropping goal difference, with a massive ten-goal swing from the game.
Hosting Adelaide, who have their tails up, will be an interesting game, and a trip to Western Sydney to finish the season shouldn’t be a concern but will potentially mean taking three weeks on the road to win the championship.
That being said, take the two wins, and if Sydney FC slip, then they could just as easily be hosting the final as the premiers.
Current position: fourth – 14 points (GD +1)
Remaining opponents: – Brisbane (H) and Newcastle (A)
City represent why I am really bad at making pre-season predictions.
The player turnover from year one to year two doesn’t really align with their place on the ladder, but it shows how much stronger the league has become, that just putting a list together and sending them on the park isn’t a guarantee of success anymore.
They host the Brisbane Roar, their main rival for the last spot in the finals, then travel to Newcastle, their other rival.
If nothing else, they will be battle hardened heading into the post-season. Maybe it’s all a ploy to hit form at the right time?
Current position: fifth – 13 points (GD -4)
Remaining opponents: Melbourne City (A)
Losing to Newcastle on the weekend has probably cost the Roar a spot in the final.
I have them pencilled in to beat City, especially on the back of last season’s final, where they showed that they can turn up for big occasions. But equally, I have City beating the Jets in the last round, which will see the Roar fall out.
They can only control how they play this week, and beating City is the only way they can make the finals. It just might not be enough in the end and a final without the Roar looks likely.
Current position: sixth – 12 points (GD -)
Remaining opponents: Sydney (A) and Melbourne City (H)
Sydney FC and Melbourne City in the final two rounds was seen as a tough assignment when the fixture came out, and still looks the same.
The Jets will give an honest account of themselves and if there will be an upset it’s here, but with results needing to go their way, on top of taking at least four points if not all six, it might be a task too hard.
However, if there was going to be a dark horse to back, this is the one; it’s just they might have left their run a little too late.
Current position: seventh – ten points (GD -15)
Remaining opponents: Canberra (H) and Perth (H)
Taking on second and third on the ladder, both of whom have to win to keep their home finals berths alive, means that the Wanderers are in for a tough time over the next two weeks.
They will give an honest account, and on their day are capable of taking it to the heavy hitters, but they might need to look to next season.
If they can keep the squad together they will be a force, but season 2016-17 is a wrap.
Current position: eighth – nine points (GD -7)
Remaining opponents: Canberra (A)
The introduction of Melbourne City hasn’t been kind to the Victory and this season went about as well as last year.
Finishing bottom, if Adelaide can pull an upset, wouldn’t be fair to Victory, but it’s hard seeing them getting past Canberra at home. Always next season.
Current position: 9th – 8 points (GD +1)
Remaining opponents: Perth (A) and Sydney (H)
Perth away and Sydney at home are tough assignments, but betting against a team that crossed double digits is also a thought.
They only need one point from the two remaining games to escape the bottom of the barrel with a superior goal difference to Melbourne Victory.
A disappointing season for them. I predicted them for a smokey for finals, but not to be.
Canberra and Perth fans will be watching them closely as they influence the makeup of who gets a home final.
Current leader: Samantha Kerr and Ashleigh Sykes – ten goals
Kerr (Perth) was three goals clear before Sykes (Canberra) scored her first double hat-trick.
Speaking with Ash after the game, she was saying how much she is really enjoying her football at the moment, and a rich vein of form has followed.
Natasha Dowie from Melbourne Victory has nine goals, but I can’t see her adding to her account. With two games to go, and Michelle Heyman still out injured, it might be the Julie Dolan medallist from last season taking home the golden boot.
Finals predictions
Sydney vs Melbourne City, Canberra vs Perth Glory
Champions: Canberra in a 3-2 overtime win
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