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On October 24 Winx shouldn’t be running in the Caulfield Stakes – she should be running in The Everest: a $10 million 1200m race to be run at Randwick. A highly historic occasion.
Why? Well first I would like to – for a moment – compare Winx to my favourite horse: Sunline. The two are very comparable, but Winx is a better horse than Sunline. It pains me to say so, but it’s true.
There is a reason though that Sunline will always have that special place in my heart and for this I must thank her trainer.
Trevor McKee and Sunline didn’t give a toss about winning sequences. They didn’t seek to make an easy dollar. They were fearless. They took on the best at any track at any time of year. They gave lesser horses masses of weight and still beat them.
Sunline won a Doncaster under 58kg and ran second under 57.5kg. She won 2 G1 Coolmores under 60kg, giving most of the field 8kg. She began one preparation in August winning a 1200m Manikato by 3.5 lengths and finished it by winning the HK Champions Mile in December (she picked up a Cox Plate by 7 lengths along the way).
She went to Hong Kong twice, Dubai once and crossed the Tasman Sea around 20 times by my reckoning. She raced other champions.
If Sunline was around today Trevor McKee would be running in The Everest – and would probably back up in Melbourne and Hong Kong later in the Spring. That’s what racing is about.
Trevor McKee believed in his horse and understood what makes racing magic, and it’s not 20 wins in a row with all the odds in your favour.
In Winx, Chris Waller has a horse better than Sunline. After she wins the Queen Elizabeth, Winx will probably follow the same set of races that she won last year en route to a record-equalling third Cox Plate.
Barring injury, she will win all those races. There is simply nothing in Australia to test her. There are no Sunlines, Northerlys, Might and Powers. There is Hartnell, Jameka, Le Romain. It’s mildly embarrassing.
If you owned Winx this option would be obvious and it would be tempting. She will pick up another $3 million or so in the spring, equal Kingston Town and then onto the Autumn where we can run in the same four races yet again and unless she loses 10 lengths or bows a tendon she will probably extend her winning streak to Black Caviar levels.
It is not the fault of Winx that there are no great horses to test her, but the most admired champions are those that face the prospect of defeat to prove their greatness in one way or another.
And then came The Everest. A $10 million race. This is the moment, to quote Greg Miles, where a champion could become a legend. But hang on just one second, I can hear people saying. The race is over 1200m – Winx is not a sprinter.
Isn’t she? She looks to have an amazing sprint to my eye. She makes very good horses look like camels over 1400m-1500m. Is it that hard to believe that she wouldn’t have enough early speed to settle in the back third of the field, peel to the outside and make mincemeat of our current crop of sprinters? Especially if trained for the event?
The current crop of sprinters is particularly weak. There are no Black Caviars, Hay Lists, Takeover Targets, Miss Andrettis. The big three Melbourne group 1s were just won by Terravista, Sheidel and Redkirk Warrior. Is anyone backing them to beat Winx over 1200m? I think she would probably beat them over 1000m.
Ultimately I think Winx should (and would if I owned her) run in the Everest for four reasons:
1. The Money – $10 million race, more than she would earn in 2 springs if she didn’t run.
2. The Moment – Magic moments in racing have a couple of things in common: a champion and the possibility that the champion can lose. How about the dominant champion of her era passing up an opportunity to equal Kingston Town’s record to race over an unsuitable distance and claim the first ever Everest. Now that would be the stuff of legend.
3. Longevity – A light spring can only help extend the length of her career and would provide an ideal opportunity to have an extended Sydney Autumn – Royal Ascot preparation ext year.
4. The win – She would win. She could lose, but she would win.
Come on Chris Waller, let Winx climb Everest!
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