The deciding match of the Rugby League World Cup is upon us, Australia hosting England at Suncorp Stadium tonight. Here are five predictions for the match.
Australia will win
Yes, Captain Obvious here, but I can’t see England getting over Australia tonight in the World Cup Final at Suncorp Stadium.
While 2008 is nearly a decade ago, Australia won’t want to be beaten in their own backyard at Suncorp for a second straight time in a World Cup Final.
Australia, under Ricky Stuart back then, went into the game as raging hot favourites, only for a Benji Marshall inspired Kiwi side to stun them with a last minute try. Billy Slater and Cameron Smith were in that side and Slater especially had an unhappy night.
While Australia have not really been challenged so far I believe under Mal Meninga, they know how to finish the deal in big games.
Overall there is too much experience and quality there to get rolled on home turf again. I don’t expect it to be as one-sided as some are predicting, but it’s hard to see the hosts being knocked off.
Bennett will have something up his sleeve
The old master coach hasn’t cracked too many smiles since taking over as coach of England, but I’m sure he will if he can cause a massive boilover tonight.
I said Australia will win, however this is a final and Wayne Bennett will have his troops primed for their best performance of the tournament.
Bennett, remember, was in charge of the Kiwis when they beat Australia in that 2008 World Cup Final so I’m sure, even though publicly he is saying England have no chance, he will be plotting the Aussies’ downfall.
He is back here on his home patch at Suncorp Stadium and, even back in the tournament opener, England only trailed Australia 10-4 with five minutes to go in a match where they conceded a heavy possession and territory count against them.
Despite losing the NRL Grand Final in 2015, Bennett has a formidable record in deciders, winning 7 from 8 club grand finals, as well as Origin deciders and a World Cup final in 2008.
England will cover the plus 18.5 start
Even though I like Australia here, that is a big start and there could be some value in backing England to cover that start.
The Poms will try and physically intimidate Australia early with Sam Burgess and James Graham sure to come out breathing fire.
If they can get an early try and turn this game into a war of attrition, with plenty of niggle, and stoppages it’s their best hope for mine.
England won’t “out-football” Australia through skill and guile, so they won’t want to be involved in an open game like a track meet, up and down the field at a fast tempo.
While England’s attack has been patchy, I believe they’re a strong defensive side and, if they can keep Australia in check early, nerves will come into it, and this could well be a low scoring game just like the one we witnessed to open the tournament.
Cameron Smith will be man of the match
Have a look at the two previous biggest games of this long and arduous Rugby League season in Australia.
Think back to State of Origin 3, as well as the NRL Grand Final, and Cameron Smith for mine was clearly the best player on the field in both.
Smith, on the biggest stage, upped his running game and controlled the whole tempo of the game for his sides.
I have no doubt he is a man on a mission again tonight, as he looks to hoist in the air all major trophies to cap off a remarkable year, for a truly remarkable player.
England will miss Josh Hodgson
For an underdog to win a title, whether it be a World Cup Final, an NRL Premiership or any other elite sporting competition in the world – you need your best players available.
Very rarely do the planets align for you to win at all if you suffer a crucial injury in the lead-up to the game where all the chocolates are on the line.
While England have a good side, they only have a few players that are quality NRL players and Josh Hodgson was one of those.
Capable of being creative out of dummy half, Hodgson is one of the few English players capable of setting up tries and creating something out of nothing against a tight Australian defence.
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