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South Africa and Australia lock horns tonight to start a highly anticipated four-Test series in South Africa. Here I identify my best bets, including some predictions for the series as well as individual performances.
To find the best value I’m using a $20 bank and TAB odds retrieved at the time of writing on Thursday afternoon.
Series result
Draw, $5 – $1 bet
With both sides relatively shorter quoted at under $2.50, clearly the value bet here is a drawn series. The last six series have been decided by one Test or less, and now they have added a fourth Test I’m pretty confident we might get four results based on the quality of the fast bowling attack and the aggressive nature both teams play their cricket.
(AP Photo/Rob Griffith)
Series correct score
Drawn series at 2-2, $6 – $1.50 bet
South Africa wins 2-1, $6.50 – $1.50 bet
Australia wins 2-1, $6 – $1 bet
The bottom line is that this is going to be a really close and fiercely contested series. The last six series between these two teams have been decided by one Test or less, and both sides match up similarly on paper in terms of their strengths and weaknesses.
If there’s a washout or a dull draw, I give the hosts the edge to win the series. That they are a little bit fresher in terms of the amount of cricket they have played and that they have the added motivation of having lost three of their past four home series against Australia might see them edge this series.
The way I have staked my bets is such that even if Australia win 2-1 we can make a small profit by backing all three outcomes.
(AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)
Top South African series run-scorer
AB de Villiers, $3.50 – $2.50 bet
Hashim Amla, $3.50 – $1.50 bet
I think AB de Villiers comes into this series fresher than most of the other world-class batsmen competing. He has not played much Test cricket over the last 18 months, and this is the perfect opportunity to show the world why he is considered such a special player.
De Villiers has seen players like Steve Smith, Virat Kohli and Joe Root surpass him over the past couple of seasons, and I think this is the summer he puts his name back up in lights.
If we miss out on De Villiers, we have a saver bet on Amla at the same price. The fact you can back both and make a profit, seems a good bet to me as I can’t see any other South African player being within striking distance of these two at the end of a four-Test series.
(AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)
Top Australia series run-scorer
Steve Smith, $2.25 – $2.50 bet
Usman Khawaja, $5 – $2 bet
I think the value here is clearly Australia’s number three in Usman Khawaja. Both David Warner and Steve Smith have played a lot of cricket of late, and Khawaja comes into this series fresher than both and off a huge century at the SCG in his most recent Test.
I think Khawaja has potentially the best technique in the country on fast and bouncy wickets in terms of batting time and dealing with the moving ball. I expect this to be a series where he really asserts himself as a world-class player, at least in these conditions.
If Khawaja doesn’t fire, we can still bet the same amount on Steve Smith and collect and, given his imperious run in Test cricket over the past couple of years, you would be a fool to not have him on your side. Perhaps the only danger to Khawaja and Smith is Warner, but I’m going to oppose him given the amount of cricket he has played of late. He looks really jaded to me.
(Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Top South Africans leading wicket-taker
Kagiso Rabada, $3.25 – $1.50 bet
Morne Morkel, $4 – $1.50 bet
The home side won’t be bowling a hell of a lot of spin this summer, so I found it best to even stake between two of their fast bowlers in Rabada and Morkel.
Given I predict the wickets are going to be slower and later than expected, I’m not expecting Vernon Philander to have the same impact given his lack of pace, so I think it’s a straight shootout between Rabada and Morkel to be the host’s leading wicket-takers.
Morkel will be playing with the weight of the world off his shoulders knowing he is retiring at the end of the summer, so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he went out with a bang. Rabada has the genuine pace to worry Australia and should pick up plenty of wickets at the death.
(AP Photo/Rob Griffith)
Top Australian leading wicket-taker
Mitchell Starc, $2.50 – $2 bet
Nathan Lyon at $5 – $1.50 bet
I did like Pat Cummins having a big series, but I couldn’t justify betting on him at the relative skinny odds of $3.75. In the past we have seen Mitchell Johnson swing the ball in South Africa and have a huge impact, and if Starc can do that, he could have a massive series.
The thing about Starc is that sometimes he doesn’t even bowl that well, but he picks up wickets. Starc is a master at cleaning up the tail, so expect him to get plenty of cheaper wickets.
I also want Nathan Lyon on my side as the Aussie quicks have had a habit of sharing the wickets around over the summer given their quality. That often means Nathan Lyon is relied upon to toil from one end for 25 to 30 overs a day and, on wickets I expect to be slower than predicted, he could have another huge impact on this series and is the value price.
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