The Broncos host the Dragons in this elimination final courtesy of nine measly points differential. And should never have come to that.
After their first 15 games the Dragons were flying with a 12 and three record. They boasted an average game score of 25-15. However, then the wheels fell off.
Some say that their Origin contingent got worn out. Others that Ben Hunt had his confidence smashed by being benched by Kevin Walters. Some say that Mary McGregor just can’t coach.
Whatever the reason, they lost six of their last nine games with an average score line of 16-26 to finish in seventh place.
Now they turn up to Suncorp Stadium to take on the Broncos whose mediocre session had its nadir in Round 5 when they languished in 12th spot.
However, they got it together enough to win 12 of their last 17 games, while putting on some scores, to earn a home final. They’ve only lost three games at home this season, with two being in the first seven rounds.
Darius Boyd of the Broncos (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
And Suncorp Stadium is not a happy place for the Red V. Since the merger the Dragons have played there 17 times and have only won six of those games.
The worst part of that stat is that all six of those wins in Brisbane came prior to 2010. The Dragons have lost the last ten straight games at Suncorp.
Now they crawl into Brisvegas without having beaten a top eight side away since the beginning of May, and not having beaten one away from home since mid-March.
Yet hope is the Dragon’s co-pilot. They have absolutely nothing to lose.
Team stats – average per game 2018
| Stat | Broncos | Dragons | Difference |
| Line breaks conceded | 4.1 | 4.1 | +/- 0 |
| Missed tackles | 27.8 | 23.4 | +4.4 Broncos |
| Tries conceded | 3.3 | 3.3 | +/- 0 |
| Errors | 7.1 (#1 NRL) | 10.4 | +3.4 Dragons |
| Meters conceded | 1401.2 | 1395.8 | +5.4 Broncos |
| Penalties conceded | 7.8 | 7 (#2 NRL) | +0.8 Broncos |
| Offloads conceded | 9.2 | 11 (#15 NRL) | +2.8 Dragons |
There really isn’t much difference between the sides in defence. Their line breaks and tries conceded are identical, as are their metres conceded.
The Dragons are the second least penalised side in the NRL this year, but the Broncos never give away that many either.
While the Broncos concede over for more tackle breaks a game, and the Dragons are the second worst side for allowing offloads, those two stats balance each other out.
So the key difference here is that the Broncos are miserly when it comes to errors. They make the least in the NRL this year.
Player Stats
| Stat | Broncos | Dragons |
| Tackles made | A McCullough – 38.1 J. McGuire – 29.1 A. Glenn – 28.5 |
C. McInnes – 37.8 J. De Belin – 29.3 T. Frizell – 27.3 |
| Missed tackles | A Glenn – 3.5 J. McGuire – 2.6 J. Kahu – 2.5 K. Nikorima – 2.5 |
B. Hunt – 4 G. Widdop – 2.7 T. Sims – 1.7 T. Frizell – 1.5 |
| Penalties conceded | A Milford – 0.8 J. Roberts – 0.7 J. Ofahengaue – 0.7 |
C. McInnes – 1 J. De Belin – 0.6 T. Sims – 0.6 |
| Errors | A Milford – 1.4 C. Oates – 1 J. Isaako – 1 K. Nikorima – 0.7 |
G. Widdop – 1.5 B. Hunt – 1.2 M. Dufty – 1.2 N. MacDonald – 1.1 |
The hookers for both sides are their key defenders, both averaging in the high 30s. McInnes is supported by five team mates who average in the 20s. McCullough has seven who do the same.
I’ve never understood Alex Glenn’s missed tackle rates.
Andrew McCullough of the Broncos (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
He has always averaged above three, yet he is not a weakness in the line as far as I can tell. Ben Hunt, on the other hand, is. Given his crisis of confidence you can guarantee that he’ll be mercilessly targeted by his old side.
Most of the errors from both sides are positive attacking errors, rather than red zone drops.
Team stats – average per game 2018
| Stat | Broncos | Dragons | Difference |
| Line breaks | 4.6 | 3.9 | +0.7 Broncos |
| Tackle breaks | 28.7 | 32.3 (#1 NRL) | +3.6 Dragons |
| Tries scored | 3.7 (#3 NRL) | 3.4 | +0.3 Broncos |
| Metres made | 1387 | 1428 (#3 NRL) | +41 Dragons |
| Penalties received | 7.1 (#16 NRL) | 8 | +0.9 Dragons |
| Offloads | 8.1 | 11.7 (#2 NRL) | +3.6 Dragons |
These attacking stats yo-yo a fair bit. The Broncos break the line more but the Dragons break more tackles. The Dragons make more metres with the ball, but the Broncos score more tries.
The Dragons make the second most offloads in the NRL, but the Roosters make the third fewest and they finished top of the table.
While a lot has been made of Gerry Sutton being biased towards the Broncos at their home ground (which I believe to be baseless), the Broncos actually pull the least amount of penalties of any NRL side.
Player Stats
| Stat | Broncos | Dragons |
| Tackle breaks | C. Oates – 3.3 J. Roberts – 2.8 A. Milford – 2.8 T. Pangai Jnr – 2.5 D. Boyd – 2.4 |
M. Dufty – 3.9 N. MacDonald – 3.1 B. Hunt – 2.7 T. Sims – 2.3 |
| Line breaks | C. Oates – 22 J. Isaako – 13 A. Milford – 13 K. Nikorima – 10 |
M. Dufty – 16 T. Sims – 10 B. Hunt – 9 |
| Metres gained | C. Oates – 139 M. Lodge – 121 J. Ofahengaue – 119 J. McGuire – 113 |
N. MacDonald – 137 J. Pereira – 136 M. Dufty – 118 L. Ah Mau – 105 |
| Tries scored | C. Oates – 18 J. Isaako – 11 K. Nikorima – 9 J. Roberts – 9 |
M. Dufty – 12 E. Aitken – 10 N. MacDonald – 10 |
| Try assists | A. Milford – 16 D. Boyd – 13 K. Nikorima – 11 |
G. Widdop – 18 B. Hunt – 17 M. Dufty – 9 |
| Line break assists | A. Milford – 13 K. Nikorima – 13 D. Boyd – 12 |
G. Widdop – 18 B. Hunt – 13 M. Dufty – 6 |
| Offloads | A. Milford – 2 T. Pangai Jnr – 1.3 M. Lodge – 0.9 |
B. Hunt – 1.5 N. MacDonald – 1.4 J. De Belin – 1.2 |
Looking at these stats you have to wonder why there was any question over the value of Corey Oates to the Broncos side. He is clearly the man most likely. He is the most consistent attacking player in this mach.
It’s a bit of a worry for the Dragons when their second highest try scorer a) only has ten to his name and b) isn’t selected in the 17.
Clearly the performances of the opposing playmakers will be critical to the result of this match. At this stage you’d have to think that Milford, Boyd and Nikorima have the edge over Hunt, Widdop and Dufty.
Matthew Dufty (AAP Image/Darren Pateman)
James Graham
I know what you’re thinking. Graham is ranked 47th in terms of average metres gained by props in 2018. He is only averaging 84 metres a game. But we all know what he is capable of and if he brings his ferocious best in this match it could lead the Dragons pack out of their malaise and back to being the dominant unit they were at season’s start.
Gareth Widdop
The Englishman is back from injury and he is the guy that can make it happen for the Dragons in attack. Since he went off injured early against the Eels in Round 22 the Dragons have only averaged 12 points scored a game and the pressure massively intensified on Hunt. With Widdop back their equilibrium may return.
Tariq Sims
Here is another bloke who has really copped some abuse recently for his lesser input. However, if he can lift – and he is playing against brother Korbin which will add incentive – he can be devastating in attack. If the Dragons are to win then he must be.
Tariq Sims (AAP Image/Darren Pateman)
Anthony Milford
It has been an up and down season for Milford but he still has the ability to bust tackles and the line, as well as set up line breaks and tries. He’ll be going for the throat in this game and could really cut loose.
James Roberts
So fast. Pereira and Lafai will have their hands completely full trying to hold him. And you only have to get it wrong for a millisecond and he’ll smoke you.
Darius Boyd
Not the most popular man in league, Darius still has plenty of talent. He might not be scoring as many tries as he once did, but he knows how to chime into a backline and he is safe as houses at the back. His experience in big games will be a telling factor in this game.
The Broncos’ overall record
This will be the Broncos 783rd premiership game since entering the competition in 1988. They’ve won 483 of their matches to date (61.76 per cent).
The Dragons’ overall record
This will be the Dragons 407th premiership game since the merger between the Illawarra Steelers and the St George Dragons. They’ve won 262 of those games (64.5 per cent).
Overall
This will be the 39th time these sides have met. It currently stands at Broncos 23, Dragons 15.
At this venue
As stated above, this will be the 18th time these sides have met at Suncorp Stadium, with the Broncos having an 11-6 record over the Dragons – with the Dragons not having won here during this decade.
The last ten
The Dragons won the last encounter between the sides 34-12 back in Round 1 in Sydney, the Broncos have won eight of the last ten games between the sides. In fact they’ve won 12 of the last 14.
James Graham celebrates a try. (AAP Image/Craig Golding)
Finals:
There have been four finals matches played between these sides and the Broncos have won three of them.
The last of them was in 2011 when the Broncos knocked the Dragons out in the semi-final. In that game Darius Boyd was playing for the Dragons and Ben Hunt was playing off the bench for the Broncos. And of course Wayne Bennett was the Dragons coach.
Form
The Broncos come into this match having won seven of their last ten games, including six of their last seven home games.
Conversely the Dragons have won just four of their last ten games but three of those wins were away from home. So all may not be lost.
These two blokes were both graded at the same time way back in 2007 and both did their apprenticeships carrying flags. They’ve done a lot of matches together.
Neither of them have controlled a game between these sides before.
Atkins has controlled 20 Broncos games, with the Queenslanders winning 11 of them (55 per cent). At Suncorp Stadium they’ve won nine of the 15 games he has controlled (60 per cent).
The youngest Sutton has controlled 14 Broncos games and the Brisbane team has won 11 of them (78.6 per cent). He has controlled 11 Broncos games in Brisbane and the home side has won all but one (91 per cent).
Atkins has controlled 16 Dragons games and the Red V has won nine of them (56.25 per cent). He has never controlled a Dragons game at Suncorp Stadium previously.
Chris Sutton has controlled 12 Dragons games and they’ve lost all but three (25 per cent win rate). The last time the Dragons won a match under Chris Sutton was in March 2017. They’ve lost the next six of theirs he’s done. Sutton has never controlled a Dragons game at Suncorp Stadium before.
Finals
Neither of these refs have controlled a Broncos or a Dragons finals match before.
The Broncos are going to win because they are at home and they are confident. As well, the Dragons are way down on confidence and they have an abysmal record at this venue. That record won’t improve on Sunday evening.
Statistically predicted score: Broncos 24- Dragons 20
Prediction: Broncos 13+
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