We have reached the final round of the 2022 AFL Women’s season, with three teams in the running for a top two finish, with which comes a first-week finals bye and a home preliminary final.

While the Adelaide Crows are in the box seat to host a home preliminary final, and potentially the Grand Final, they could still drop to third place on the ladder if they suffer an upset loss to St Kilda and other results go against them.

Second-placed Melbourne can all but wrap up, at worst, second place on the ladder with a win against resurgent Carlton on Saturday night, while the Crows must simply beat the Saints the next day to wrap up the minor premiership.

Otherwise, if both the Dees and Crows are beaten, the Brisbane Lions can move to the top of the ladder with a win over the Western Bulldogs, but its winning margin must be greater than what the Crows and/or Dees are beaten by.

A win by Collingwood over Richmond on Saturday will seal off the top six from the rest of the competition, leaving the Bulldogs and Blues to contest dead rubbers later in the round, while the Kangaroos will start favourites to lock up fourth spot with a win over the West Coast Eagles.

The Eagles are all but certain to claim the wooden spoon, but could still mathematically avoid it if they rack up a surprisingly big win over the Roos, and St Kilda are heavily beaten by the Crows the next day.

Those are just some of the permutations to come out of the final round, which begins on Friday night with a dead rubber between the Geelong Cats and GWS Giants at Kardinia Park.

Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants
It has been a tough season for both sides, but the contrast in fortunes between the Geelong Cats and GWS Giants couldn’t have been stark.

After narrowly avoiding the wooden spoon with victory in the final round last year, the Cats have been much more competitive this season, winning two matches and losing several others by less than a kick, including against the Brisbane Lions in round four.

Last week, however, they failed to kick a single goal as they went down to fellow strugglers St Kilda by nine points, despite having one more scoring shot than their opponents (0.9 (9) from nine scoring shots to 2.6 (18) from the Saints’ eight scoring shots).

Meanwhile, the GWS Giants were left to rue a poor first quarter against Richmond at Giants Stadium, eventually kicking six goals to the Tigers’ seven, with all thirteen goals for the match being kicked to the southern end of the ground.

Like the Cats, they will also be playing for pride, and this will also be their final match as the lone side from New South Wales, before the Sydney Swans, to be coached by ex-North Melbourne coach Scott Gowans, enter the 2022-23 season at the end of this year.

They’ve won only three matches for the season, one of which was achieved after the final siren when Katherine Smith booted a goal at the death to sink the Saints at Blacktown two weeks ago.

After such a disappointing season, the Giants will want to end their season on a high, and history is in their favour as they have won their only two other meetings against the Cats, including in the corresponding fixture at Kardinia Park last year.

However, at home, the Cats should get reward for effort and bank their second home win of the season to give their supporters something to think about going into the off-season.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by six points.

Collingwood vs Richmond
For Collingwood, the equation is simple: win, play finals and sentence Carlton and the Western Bulldogs to play dead rubbers against Melbourne and the Brisbane Lions later in the round.

The Pies had a huge opportunity to seal off the top six but fell just short of upsetting the Adelaide Crows at Norwood Oval, meaning that, while unlikely, they run the risk of being overtaken by the Blues or Bulldogs by the end of the round.

Back at home, Steve Symond’s side will start hot favourites to beat the Tigers, who have won three matches this season, including beating the Giants in Sydney last Saturday night.

A five-goal opening quarter was enough for them to get over the line by seven points, despite only kicking two more goals (both in the third quarter) for the rest of the match.

But they will be without Jess Hosking, who has copped a two-match ban from the judiciary for engaging in rough conduct against GWS’ Alyce Parker, meaning that not only will she miss this weekend’s game against the Pies, but also the first match of next season.

They will again be relying on huge performances from Katie Brennan and Monique Conti, two of their most consistent performers this season, to finish their season on a high, and give their supporters something to think about in 2023.

However, with everything to play for, don’t expect the Pies to get complacent on Saturday.

Prediction: Collingwood by 15 points.

North Melbourne vs West Coast Eagles
While they remain the faintest mathematical hope of snatching third place from the Brisbane Lions, it is more likely that North Melbourne will finish fourth, meaning they will host a semi-final next week, likely against Fremantle.

The Roos, of course, first need to beat likely wooden spooners the West Coast Eagles, and if they win by a large margin, and the Lions suffer an unlikely record loss against the Western Bulldogs, they could yet finish third and host either the Pies or Dockers in the semi-final.

Despite the best efforts of Ashleigh Riddell and Emma Kearney, Darren Crocker’s side were no match for the Lions, losing by 36 points in a match that was relocated to the Whitten Oval due to flooding in south-east Queensland rendering the Maroochydore playing surface unsafe.

It was their second straight loss after also going down to Melbourne by ten points the previous week, with these past two defeats plus a round two loss to the Adelaide Crows proving just how much the Roos need to improve if they are to challenge for the flag.

Next in the firing line are the West Coast Eagles, who will also have everything to play for, but in their case it will be to offload the wooden spoon to St Kilda, which will start heavy underdogs in its match against the Adelaide Crows on Sunday.

It has been nothing but a horrid season for the Eagles, with their first-half scoring struggles again highlighted last week when it again failed to score even a point before half-time, and eventually booting just one goal for the entire match against the Western Bulldogs.

Inaugural best-and-fairest winner Dana Hooker, who along with Emma Swanson have been shining lights in a tough campaign for the westerners, is unlikely to play in the final round after suffering a shoulder injury and being sent to hospital for x-rays before full-time.

With their eyes on the prize, expect North to show no mercy at Arden Street as they warm up for the finals, and officially sentence the Eagles to the wooden spoon in the process.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 30 points.

Melbourne vs Carlton
Melbourne can strike the first shot in the final round battle for the AFLW minor premiership at their Casey Fields fortress this Saturday night, as they will start hot favourites to beat Carlton and, in the process, temporarily move to the top of the ladder.

Against Fremantle in Perth last week, the Dees entered the record books as the first team to not just kick more than 15 goals in a match, but also crack 100 points, doing so with a score of 16.11 (107) while restricting the injury-hit Dockers to just three goals from four scoring shots.

Among the goalkickers was captain Daisy Pearce, who booted five majors as she reaches what is expected to be the final matches of her career as it is likely she will retire at season’s end.

Nearly six months after their men’s side smashed a 57-year premiership hoodoo, Pearce will be hoping to lead her side to premiership glory, which would see the Melbourne Football Club become the first club to win both the AFL and AFLW flags simultaneously.

Standing in their way of an expected top two finish are the Carlton Blues, who have won their past three matches to give themselves the faintest of hopes to force their way into the eight, but it is more likely they will finish just outside the six.

Mimi Hill and Gab Pound racked up nearly half a century of disposals between them, while Nicola Stevens and Jess Good both kicked a pair of majors as the Blues defeated the Gold Coast Suns by five goals, all but ending the latter club’s finals hopes in the process.

Blues fans will otherwise be wondering where it has all gone wrong this season, with the club having suffered several heavy defeats which is reflected in their poor percentage of 82.6.

While their finals hopes are expected to be officially extinguished by the first bounce, all they can do is cause nuisance value and strike a blow to Melbourne’s flag aspirations with a win.

But with the ultimate prize potentially only two wins away after this weekend, the Dees should get the job done and complete another undefeated home run at Casey Fields this season.

Prediction: Melbourne by 18 points.

St Kilda vs Adelaide Crows
If Melbourne wins as expected on Saturday night, the onus will be on the Adelaide Crows to win by a bigger margin than what the Dees beat Carlton by to officially claim top spot and earn as many as two home finals, including the big one in the first weekend of April.

After edging out Fremantle in the west in round eight, the Crows took another step towards claiming back-to-back minor premierships by holding off a serious challenge from Collingwood to win by only two points at Norwood Oval.

Despite being without captain Chelsea Randall, and falling behind in the third quarter, Matthew Clarke’s side soon took back the lead via forward Ashleigh Woodland, and despite a nervous final quarter managed to hold the lead right to the death.

It would not surprise you that Erin Phillips was once again her side’s best, as she racked up seventeen goals and a goal after missing the previous week’s win over the Dockers with a knee injury.

Now, the women from West Lakes will start prohibitive favourites to defeat St Kilda, which has won their past two matches to salvage something out of a disappointing season, at Moorabbin Oval on Sunday.

The Saints marked their return to Moorabbin Oval and paid tribute to fallen cricketer Shane Warne with a nine-point win over the Geelong Cats, whom they kept goalless from nine scoring shots while booting two goals from eight attempts.

Their only goals came from Kate Shierlaw and Caitlin Greiser, with the latter yet to miss from four shots at goal this season, while Tilly Lucas-Rodd was a clear best-on-ground with 22 disposals.

While they cannot make finals, the stakes will be high for the Saints if the West Coast Eagles unexpectedly thrash North Melbourne the previous day, because a loss could see them claim the wooden spoon, though it is more likely they will finish second-last.

In the end, the Crows should get the job done, wrap up the minor premiership then set themselves up for a likely flag showdown against the Brisbane Lions or Melbourne in the first weekend of April.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 24 points.

Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions
Depending on how Melbourne and the Adelaide Crows fare earlier in the round, the Brisbane Lions could enter its final round clash against the Western Bulldogs at Whitten Oval with a good chance to surge to the top of the ladder and earn an all-important home preliminary final at the Gabba.

Many feared for the Lions’ premiership defence after they copped a five-goal defeat at the hands of the Crows in round one, during which they lost Kate Lutkins to a season-ending ACL injury and finished the round at the bottom of the ladder – an unusual sight to AFLW fans.

However, they were able to hit back hard, winning seven of their next eight matches – with the only loss being a post-siren defeat against Melbourne – to resurrect their flag hopes and potentially set themselves up to go back-to-back this year.

This Sunday the Lions return to Whitten Oval – where they defeated North Melbourne convincingly after having that clash moved from Maroochydore due to the poor state of the playing field – to face the Western Bulldogs, who could be playing for either pride or a finals berth.

Nathan Burke’s side have won four of their last six matches to surge into finals contention with one round remaining, putting the cleaners through the West Coast Eagles with a ten-goal thumping at Optus Stadium last Saturday night.

Their finals fate now lays in the hands of Collingwood, because if the Pies beat Richmond as expected on Saturday, the Dogs will have nothing to play for, but can strike a psychological blow with a win over the Lions on their home deck on Sunday.

However, it is Craig Starcevich’s side who have everything to play for, and given Melbourne and the Adelaide Crows both play non-finalists earlier in the round, it is more realistic that they will finish third and host Collingwood in a semi-final at home next week.

That being said, expect no complacency from the Lions as they look to become the first AFLW club in history to go back-to-back.

Prediction: Brisbane Lions by 16 points.

Fremantle vs Gold Coast Suns
With its percentage having taken a massive hit following its humiliating loss to Melbourne last Saturday night, Freo has it all against them if they are to overhaul North Melbourne and take back, at best, fourth place on the ladder, and a home qualifying final.

With over half its side ruled out of the match against the Dees due to injuries, the Dockers managed only three goals for the entire match, and conceded sixteen as they lost a whopping 70 percentage points, also suffering their second straight loss in the process.

Trent Cooper’s side were clearly a shadow of the side that had otherwise been dominant for the balance of the season, despite having to enter a Victorian hub in the first half of the season when Western Australia delayed reopening its borders to the rest of the country.

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They will surely want to regain not just some much needed form, but also some respect, against the Gold Coast Suns, whose finals hopes were officially extinguished last Sunday when it lost to Carlton by five goals at Ikon Park.

It had been a much-improved season for the ladies from the holiday strip, after they suffered the ignominy of an imperfect season last year, but it seems jumping into the top six after finishing last in 2021 has proven a bridge too far.

Instead, the Suns will wrap up the AFLW regular season with the unenviable task of having to face a Fremantle side which will be expected to have several of its stars back, and will want to restore some pride after the embarrassment they suffered against the Dees, on home soil no less.

That being said, the Dockers should hit back hard in what’s also likely to be the final match played in WA for the season, before they venture out of the state for a likely finals showdown against North Melbourne next Sunday.

Prediction: Fremantle by 25 points.

If results go as expected above, the first week of the 2022 AFL Women’s finals series will look like this:

First qualifying final
* Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood, Gabba (likely) – winner to face the Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval (likely) in the first preliminary final.
* This match would likely be played as a curtain raiser to the Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide round one AFL match at the Gabba on the Saturday.
* The Adelaide Crows’ home preliminary final would likely be played as a curtain raiser to the Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn round two AFL match at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday.

Second qualifying final
* North Melbourne vs Fremantle, MCG (likely) – winner to face Melbourne at the MCG or Casey Fields in the second preliminary final.
* This match would likely be played as a curtain raiser to the Hawthorn vs North Melbourne match at the MCG on the Sunday.
* Melbourne’s home preliminary final would either be played as a curtain raiser to the Richmond vs GWS Giants round two AFL match at the MCG on the Sunday, or separately at a different venue the same day.