Opinion
Each week, the footy continues to turn up surprise results, and instead of making the final eight easier to predict, it’s making things harder to forecast.
It’s a real compliment to the equalisation measures that the AFL have introduced and refined over a number of seasons. At the moment, apart from the two bookends – Melbourne and North Melbourne – every other team is competitive and capable of winning or losing against any other team.
Round 16 highlighted this again. Every team except North Melbourne led at some time during the game, and in a number of games the lead changed regularly. Apart from Geelong’s thrashing of the Kangaroos, there was no game in which the margin exceeded the equivalent of two goals per quarter, a small margin when you consider teams get a run on of up to six goals per quarter. The wins by Essendon, St Kilda and to some extent Collingwood were unexpected and again muddied the waters in relation to the composition of the final eight.
The Bulldogs’ chances plummeted after their 41-point loss to Brisbane. Their next five games are against teams currently making up the other three positions in the top four and clubs currently sitting in eighth and ninth positions. By the time they get to play two relatively easier games in Rounds 22 and 23 it may be too late, as I believe 14 wins may be needed to make the eight. In this game Bulldogs newcomer Dominic Bedendo played his first game and also scored his first goal. Brisbane’s James Tunstill got his name on the goal scorer’s list for the first time also.
The desperate Saints wore down the Blues to win an entertaining game by 15 points in which umpire Brendan Hosking officiated in his 200th AFL game. The Saints’ tall timbers, Tim Membrey and Max King, picked up seven goals between them. King’s three goals were enough for him to pass Ian Rowland and Lenny Hayes and join David Armitage and Paul Callery just two short of a century of goals for the Saints. Carlton’s two big forwards scored only three goals, with Harry McKay’s two and Charlie Curnow’s one, but both moved up the list of the Blues’ top 100 goal scorers.
Essendon showed some form to beat Sydney and add some spice to the possible finals make-up. Jake Kelly scored only one goal in his 110 games for Adelaide but kicked a crucial goal after only 14 games at the Bombers to help them to win by nine points and put their future opponents on notice that although Essendon won’t be there, they may still have a role in deciding who will be. Lance Franklin kicked only one, but Sam Reid scored two to equal Mark Bayes’s career total.
As expected, Melbourne did enough against Adelaide to remain back on track despite missing a couple of top-flight players. Taylor Walker kicked two goals to move ahead of Brent Harvey on the AFL top 100 goal scorers list.
Patrick Dangerfield may now be chasing down Shane Edwards on the AFL games list, but he started the Kangaroo cull in spectacular fashion with the first goal of the game, which took him to 149 goals, level with Cats legend Bob Davis.
Speaking of Shane Edwards, his two goals took him past Brett Deledio in Richmond’s expected win over the Eagles.
Collingwood and Fremantle were the two teams to put their hands up highest on the weekend to say they want to be playing in September, but there are still plenty of hands in the air, and ten into eight won’t go.
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