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The Rugby Championship teams all do battle again this weekend far from home. They are in different places, literally and figuratively.
No one watching Argentina’s 2022 closely would have been too surprised by their win over England at Twickenham. The way they did it: perhaps. The Pumas built only 38 rucks, made two line breaks, had a handful of phases in the red zone, and ran less than 200 metres. It was the execution when it mattered, along with defensive mania which was seen throughout TRC.
Eddie Jones does not seem to have his cloakroom dancing to a happy tune. Marcus Smith is being wasted at ten, with almost seventy-five percent of play running through nine and twelve. The Pumas love their new coach Michael Cheika and are playing their hearts out for him and his coaches.
Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus continue to tick off boxes for next year. A Cheslin Kolbe at fullback experiment is over, it seems, but he will continue to be the designated first half goalkicker at Marseille. The other twist for the Springboks is a rather small starting pack, with Kwagga Smith getting the start at No. 8, Franco Mostert a bit smaller than Lood de Jager, and Ox Nche and Bongi Mbonambi more reminiscent of squat-bodied French front rows of yesteryear.
New Zealand is buoyant again and will enjoy Murrayfield if they can get quick ball again.
Australia was heroic in pushing France to the wire, and now have the proverbial banana skin match against perennial Six Nations wooden spooners Italy.
Who is facing the sternest exams? Who needs to show something right now to burnish their credentials as the Rugby World Cup looms about ten months and ten Tests from now?
The Pumas do not have a great weight of pressure on them. Do they want to win all their matches on tour? Of course. But their supporters do not expect a sweep. More vitally, the Pumas want to develop habits. Habits of winning, consistency, backing up a good performance with a better one.
Emiliano Boffelli is having quite a year. He should be in line for World Player of the Year nomination. Along with a dead eye off the tee (and long) he is a fine winger, finishing one of Argentina’s few chances well last weekend. But this week he may be under pressure on defence, as he faces a 13-14-15 tandem of George North, Alex Cuthbert and Louis Rees-Zammit (at fullback).
That trio will not need much of a sniff to hit the tram line at speed. Boffelli and his mate Matias Moroni will need to make quick, good choices.
Being expected to win well is a burden unto itself. Before the tour, this fixture was the only one every Wallaby watcher wrote in as a win.
Thus, it will be scoring which matters: a big score. Pressure falls on the halves: Jake Gordon and Noah Lolesio from an intriguing combination. A good Test flyhalf can adapt to various scrumhalves; this is what Lolesio must show he can do.
Gordon is part of a revolving door of Wallaby halfbacks, each with a partisan constituency, watched for every error and triumph.
Noah Lolesio. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Both halves will feel their substitutes breathing over their shoulders: Queenslander Tate McDermott and Waratah Ben Donaldson, waiting for their own chance to score points.
To put up a convincing total against Italy, the Wallabies will need to build more than the 62 rucks they had in Paris, which means cleaners will need to attend on time, to give Gordon and McDermott the space to swoop and serve up Lolesio and Donaldson proper ropes to use so that the midfield can punch holes.
Much like South Africa, France gives so much ball away on purpose, it can help a team like Australia who likes that sort of chaos and were probably pleased to find their Bok preparation is still more physical than the French brand.
This is a week when nothing less than a proper hiding will do. I expect it will be done, but who does it is the stuff of internal Aussie rugby chat.
The Boks always face pressure because all the world loves to critique them; none more so than their own fans. This week they put a small forward pack, by international standards, on the park. However, they will surely do the job. France has not faced a set of forwards quite like the (mostly legally) brutal Boks.
The pressure is all on the backs. Three of them in particular. Damian Willemse is a supremely talented footballer but he danced too much in Dublin, which robbed Damian de Allende of a second or two each time. When Willie le Roux took over late, breaks emerged rather easily and two tries resulted. Willemse needs to show he can pass quicker and put others into space.
French favourite Kolbe will take the kicks. That is pressure. The Boks rely more than any other team on forcing opponents into ruck and scrum penalties and taking the three. Kolbe’s first kick at poles is likely to set the tone.
Finally, Faf de Klerk’s mission to regain the starting nine jersey runs into another wrinkle this week as speedster Cobus Reinach is on the bench. Just as Faf stood out last week, Cobus can this week.
France is likely to be internally annoyed at their performance last week. The Boks do not have to win this one to feel good, but if they did pull off the upset, it would send shock waves throughout French rugby, which is already going through a shameful corruption trial.
There is spice in this one in the gritty coastal city known for rough stuff. Expect Sydney-level niggle and chat.
The only All Blacks I see as under the pump this week are Finlay Christie and Akira Ioane. Both have had lacklustre years so far. Both have plenty of talent. Both now have a perfect chance to attract attention against an opponent almost perfectly tailored for them to shine.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.