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Rob9

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Joined September 2011

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Attempt at sarcasm?

NRL coaches poll pushes rival expansion bid over PNG, overhaul of player transfer system and crackdown on agents

I appreciate that, but there does seem to be a sentiment from those pushing for this to happen that because PNG is rugby league-nuts (no argument there), that everyone there is on board with it. Again, while I appreciate that might not be what you’re saying- it’s certainly not the case from my experience of interacting with people from there.

NRL coaches poll pushes rival expansion bid over PNG, overhaul of player transfer system and crackdown on agents

It’s beggars belief that the PNG NRL bid could still be considered a sound expansion option given recent developments. It was outlandish before, but this event provides an insight into the instability, the challenges and the real gulf that exists on so many different fronts between Australia and PNG. Those at hq flirting with this idea don’t seem to comprehend the fact that PNG is effectively another planet compared to where the competition is played. If they do, they’re somehow dramatically underestimating the challenges that will arise from that if they intend for the NRL to have a full time presence in PNG.

NRL coaches poll pushes rival expansion bid over PNG, overhaul of player transfer system and crackdown on agents

I wouldn’t assume the ‘few million rugby league supporters in PNG’ are jumping up and down for an NRL team that’s effectively funded by foreign diplomacy. I’ve met quite a lot of folks from PNG through work and a lot are dead against it. When fundamental systems such as health and education are broken, corruption is rife across government and a decent chunk of the population live a standard of life that Australians simply could not comprehend- there’s other areas that many people would rather see prioritised above bringing online a professional rugby league team.

NRL coaches poll pushes rival expansion bid over PNG, overhaul of player transfer system and crackdown on agents

I struggled watching out attack last year. Unforced errors and we’d get down into our opponents red zone and lock up a bit and things would get clunky. Yea the pack doesn’t seem to have the ability to absorb pressure and wrestle control against those good teams. I think AFB is a great signing to turn this part of our game around… but as has been pointed out to me- that’s still a year away 😢

The great NRL 2024 top 8 swap... Who's moving into the finals - and who's out?

Yea I think we’d still have to be favoured to make the 8. A lot depends on Nico. And obviously a lot of his game depends on the big guys getting it right too and all too often last year they didn’t and our soft underbelly was exposed against the good teams. I think the great thing about AFB is that his strengths cover over what’s been some our weaknesses. Our edge forwards are the strength in the pack (when they’re on) and while I rate Rudolph and BHU, AFB is another class. My hope is that him there to set the platform is going to open up our attack. But as it turns out we still have a year to wait so our success really hinges on Nico and removing the clunkyness that plagued our attack for much of last year. From memory we have one of the better draws so if we can get those things right and have a good run with injuries then a top 4 spot could be within reach.

The great NRL 2024 top 8 swap... Who's moving into the finals - and who's out?

Heck, it is too! In the Christmas time scramble and the randomness of surprise announcement I thought we had AFB this year. What a bust! Thanks for setting me straight (and bursting my bubble in the process) and apologies above Albo. Slight decline it is. 2025 the year of the Sharks…

The great NRL 2024 top 8 swap... Who's moving into the finals - and who's out?

‘Sharks – Slight downgrade with some player losses and no gains’

AFB’s not a gain?? With him and 2022 Nico, I think we’re title contenders.

The great NRL 2024 top 8 swap... Who's moving into the finals - and who's out?

I don’t want a coach expanding their JD to whip up interest in the game. They’ve got enough on their plate and should be consumed by that. As hard as the product is to sell at the moment- leave that to the marketing department and restrict your contribution to on field results. Give me Wayne Bennett, Graham Henry, Bill Belichick types any day. I can’t think of anything worse than another coach like a yappy UFC fighter using pressers to tell everyone how good he is before serving up back to back losses and winding up with a snapped leg.

COMMENT: In trading Greatest Showman for 'boring' and 'pragmatic' Sleepy Joe, RA gambling with game's future

No argument from me that 10+ hour flights across multiple timezones aren’t going to have an effect on player, and therefor team performance. I’ve read studies that say as much. But those effects being felt for up to 5 weeks (when the Vegas teams start playing those that didn’t travel and a disadvantage could be exposed)- I haven’t seen anything that suggests the direct impact has that sort of longevity. As for the impact having a year-long effect, I think that’s absurd.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

‘The rugby game’ is not poor in New Zealand. You’re assuming the state of the game here applies across the ditch. Just not the case.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

I’m not interested in ‘data’ connecting participation in the WCC and success the following season. I’m sorry but that’s nothing more than an assumption you’re making. Where is there physiological data that suggests the side effects of international travel are still felt on an elite athlete for an entire season (or even as long as 5 weeks)?

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

There’s data to suggest that the impact of international travel can be felt for as long as almost 5 weeks (the first time they’d come up against a team that didn’t have that burden) after the fact? I’d be interested to see that data (genuinely).

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

For sure Cam. Not saying it won’t have an impact but I don’t think they’ll be disadvantaged to any meaningful degree given how the NRL have planned it. Super Rugby was a whole other level where travel across multiple timezones was the norm and I don’t think that burden can really be compared to the fairly controlled way the NRL have gone about it with these 4 teams and a split round Vegas trip.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

Players get the week off after the Vegas game while the rest of the round is completed. Then their next 2 games are against the other 2 teams that traveled to Vegas. It’s not until round 4 (almost 5 weeks after traveling home) that they come up against a team that didn’t have the travel burden. I think the NRL has been pretty smart in how they’ve organised the logistics around it and any disadvantage these 4 teams carry will be minimal if any.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

Have a look at the sponsors of most NRL clubs. Their major sponsor and most of their platinum sponsors are international or national companies. This applies to regional markets too and it’s not until the lower sponsorship tiers where local businesses (usually of a small to medium size) start get involved and there’s no shortage of these on the Sunshine Coast.

You advocate for the South Island of NZ getting a team despite being half the size of Perth and in the same breath you shoot down the West Coast because of the travel time from North Queensland. How long do you think it will take to get from up there to the South Island of NZ? In any event, Perth is a domestic flight away and literally every other national league of significance makes it work. They’re professionals.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

I agree, while the Dolphins had the strongest commercial case and are conveniently tucked on the northern fringe of the city (least direct impact to the existing monopoly), Easts weren’t far behind commercially and from the perspective of assessing bids based on establishing a Brisbane landscape that produces the best outcome for fans and the competition- Easts was the best option for mine.

They were a legitimate ‘Brisbane 2’ bid that had the strongest case for capturing the most Brisbane-based fans that weren’t being serviced by the Broncos. May be if they joined forces with the Jets from the get-go to consolidate the ‘western corridor’ as part of their southside point of difference (and lock in a better moniker) they would of had a proposal that was too good to pass up.

Of course the Dolphins will still be a successful professional football operation but I think the Easts bid would have presented a better option for effectively covering Brisbane. A legitimate Brisbane 2 as opposed to a team with its roots on the Peninsula would have also cleared the path of all obstacles for a Sunshine Coast entrant down the track which is QLD’s next logical team for mine.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

Of course it had to be part of their proposal. They’re on the north fringe of the greater Brisbane area so it makes sense to do shiny maps and build this narrative in theory. Different beast in practice though. A Redcliffe proposal that doesn’t try and encroach on the Sunshine Coast would look pretty weak. But in no way do the half million people on the Sunshine Coast identify themselves as part of the Greater Brisbane area or in a cultural conglomerate with Moreton Bay. One is suburbia and the other is its own coastal city with an independent identity with still some greenspace between it and Brisbane/Moreton Bay. The Sunshine Coast as a heartland and the country’s ninth largest city has a strong enough case (almost) on its own to house full time NRL representation (still behind Perth for mine though).

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

A low base when held up to PNG but you’re probably right.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

It’s also effectively Broncos territory. As is the newly-termed and somewhat disjointed geographical concept of the ‘Western corridor’.

Expansion is primarily about taking teams to fans. As mentioned, the Dolphins need time to find their feet (strong start in season 1 but that’s well and truly within the ‘honeymoon period’) and the Broncos also need time to adjust to this significant change to their market.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

9’s is an off season gimmick. The crowds that show up to State of Origins and NRL fixtures suggest there are moose there.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

‘The Dolphins are supposed to represent the southern Wide Bay region down to Brisbane’

They may suggest that they’re representing this geographical footprint but it’s going to be incredibly hard for what really is a Brisbane team (and should be hence the whole ‘Brisbane 2’ expansion goal) to assert themselves as the team for this vast area and effectively connect with the numerous independent communities.

The Dolphins were admitted as ‘Brisbane 2’ and should be focusing their attention on occupying that void that they were provided a license to fill. Greater Brisbane is edging towards a population of 3 million people and it commands the undivided and full time attention of two teams.

Fair call on Mackay but when highlighting the area between the Cowboys and the Dolphins, I’d be looking at the southern end of that reach as opposed to CQ. The Sunshine Coast is separate from Brisbane/Moreton Bay with its own unique identity and a population that’s closing in on half a million. That would be my choice for QLD’s next team. I agree with your CQ assessment and before looking up the coast again, I think there’s a case for a Toowoomba/Darling Downs/South West team that could start to emerge with a stadium upgrade for the Olympics.

As outlined above, any bid that’s reliant on government policy (which PNG18 really is) is being built on a foundation of Swiss cheese. Governments change and policies change (sometimes even when governments don’t) and this not only relies on the Australian government but also the PNG government pulling its weight in the eyes of our Feds.

It’s first 10 years are effectively assured but nothing is beyond that. The NRL can’t look at the Federal government as an eternal source of funding for new teams and who’s to say that the government of the day will view a professional Rugby League team in PNG as a strategy that is effectively fulfilling the geopolitical objective that Albo is hoping it will achieve. Who knows, PNG may have further cozied up to China in that time- I doubt an NRL team will do much to stem that from becoming a reality if that’s their intent. As the GWS and the Suns have shown, 10 years is a blip in terms of effectively entrenching a team in a community and the NRL are trying to do that in a developing and culturally foreign market. While $600m looks enticing, there’s nothing about this that makes sense from a long term strategic perspective.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

Exactly. If that’s what’s standing between us and China’s regional dominance, then we better start brushing up on our Mandarin. Not only that but the NRL is putting their faith for this hair-brained idea on the proviso that governments maintain the $60m annual investment as policy and you’d have to think that also hinges on PNG governments dancing to the beat of our administrations drums.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

Taking the competition to 18 teams should really push expansion discussions to the back-burner for the next decade plus, which is why it’s so important that the NRL gets it right. The Dolphins righted the wrong of under representation of Brisbane. I do think the situation north of the Harbour in Sydney isn’t ideal. Including the Central Coast, there’s over 1 and a half million people on this side of town and Brookvale isn’t the easiest place to get to for a lot of them. There’s a great stadium (over an hour away from Brookie) in a heartland community on the Central Coast and it’s been a missed opportunity to lock this area up with full time NRL representation. There’s also probably a strong case for another team in QLD but certainly not in Brisbane where there’s a new team that needs adequate time to sustainably find their feet. Perth is the next wrong that needs to be righted and that should be the NRL’s priority for team 18 as opposed to the expansion process being hijacked as an attempted geopolitical strategy that keeps neighbors onside.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

The Roosters played finals football in 2023. 2 weeks of it in the end thanks to my hapless Sharks.

I also wouldn’t put Brisbane and NZ in the ‘unsatisfied base’ category. The Central Coast springs to mind here. Or providing representation for the million + people that live north of Redcliffe and south of Townsville. Regardless, there hasn’t been expansion into a new frontier this century and Perth is as promising a prospect as you’ll find. It’ll be a sad day when the NRL allows the Federal Government to interfere in a decision of the significance as expansion and and meddle in a defining area like the make up of the competition.

Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

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