Roar Pro
Joined May 2012
27.5k
Views
15
Published
50
Comments
Published
Comments
I have recently returned from a trip to Hong Kong where racing is the king of sport, not just the sport of kings. In…
On the first Tuesday in November a nation stops to watch the Melbourne Cup - a horse race. Thousands of ordinary Australians are bitten…
Selecting the winner of the Melbourne Cup is not easy. The horse has to be sharp on the day, handle the track conditions, get…
I like to watch the horses all year round - not just spring and autumn - and I generally follow the major racing carnivals…
After the Flemington Makybe Diva Stakes meeting we have had a couple of weeks to assess the Spring hopes of many of the leading…
The best performed young footballer in the AFL in 2012 is ineligible to win the NAB Rising Star Award including a $20,000 investment portfolio.…
The issue of AFL clubs allegedly “tanking” for higher draft picks has reared it's ugly head again this week after Carlton player Brock McLean…
It's a great Australian horse racing story - a young filly bought cheap and raced on country tracks with success. Then, the horse takes…
The AFL first introduced the sub-rule into the season proper in 2011 to “lower the injury rate.” It later admitted the three-and-one interchange system…
AFL premierships are hard to win. Just ask Ross Lyon and Nathan Buckley. But there are three critical steps football clubs must take in…
With 18 teams the AFL season is not getting any shorter. Four preseason, 22 home and away and four weeks of finals matches can…
On six occasions this season, Geelong and the Western Bulldogs (both 4-4) have faced a team with a shorter break. For North Melbourne (3-5)…
Lets face it, State of Origin football in the AFL is dead. The last time AFL players played the traditional format was in 1999.…
Under current AFL rules, a player is eligible to be drafted by the club of his 'biological father' where the father played more than…
After his stellar start to the 2012 AFL season Sydney's clearance-specialist Josh Kennedy has tumbled in from $251 to as low as equal $7…
Yes he had no right to be in the finish at the top of the straight and won in the last stride paying $7 on sTAB. I know cos I backed him the start before at $2.90 he blew to $5.50 first up at Flemington and went ordinary hence I could not have him at the Valley. Silly me to doubt a champion…
Mooney Valley racing: Pierro - Stutt Stakes - Preview, tips, live blog
That’s right the Manikato replaced it on the Cox Plate program and so it comes back to this meet. There have been some substantial bets on Buffering but I think the market is underestimating how good Tiger Tees is…
Mooney Valley racing: Pierro - Stutt Stakes - Preview, tips, live blog
Another good race to bet into. Running double 1,4,5-2,6 hopefully get one favourite beaten.
Mooney Valley racing: Pierro - Stutt Stakes - Preview, tips, live blog
Good run by Saturn Rock. Fastnet does it again, another stakes winner in waiting…
Mooney Valley racing: Pierro - Stutt Stakes - Preview, tips, live blog
Hoss is done for the race you would think now. One less to worry about…
Mooney Valley racing: Pierro - Stutt Stakes - Preview, tips, live blog
Good to see Steven ride him out to the line too. Not letting the horse get lazy towards the finish. Big class drop and he paid well for a special by many astute judges.
Mooney Valley racing: Pierro - Stutt Stakes - Preview, tips, live blog
One of the pair should win. Although as we saw in the first two races luck in running plays its part!
Mooney Valley racing: Pierro - Stutt Stakes - Preview, tips, live blog
At this early stage I’d say the track is even. It’s hard to get an accurate assessment from two 1200 metre races when horses may spend a bit of energy with gate speed but I think anything with clear running across the track has every chance.
Mooney Valley racing: Pierro - Stutt Stakes - Preview, tips, live blog
Luck in running and Serene Star and Koonamoo got none. Credit to the winner and a great ride by Kerrin.
Mooney Valley racing: Pierro - Stutt Stakes - Preview, tips, live blog
Spot on.
I’m keen to have a bet in this race. Running double 2,6,11-3,7. Secure the first leg then get Spacecraft home ahead of Tokugawa to increase the dividend.
Mooney Valley racing: Pierro - Stutt Stakes - Preview, tips, live blog
Generalife was super impressive. Didn’t get out before the 300 and savaged the line. Good improvement from a Bendigo 68 although the stable have talked him up. The two favourites were disappointing, the punters got it very wrong.
Mooney Valley racing: Pierro - Stutt Stakes - Preview, tips, live blog
Hey Justin did you see the fourth horse out of that Waterford Hill Werribee race? At its next start ran on for second over 1400 in a Ballarat BM62, ran on and won a Werribee 62 over 1600 by 10l (yes ten), went to town mid week and won a Sandown 78 by 2l and then went down to African Heat in another mid week Mornington 78 over 2000. African Heat ran third behind him at Werribee then won four of his next seven starts including a Saturday 95 at MV over 2500 in August. In a weak looking Sebring I think you may have found one…
PS I think Kabayan will be the exacta horse to Nechita.
The Golden Rose Stakes, Dato Tan Chin Nam and more: Preview and tips
What do you guys think of Essington’s ($26) chances in the last at MV? My form on him says 3-5 lengths better fresh, great sprinting stable, stable jockey on, well drawn, likes tight tracks, 55% winning record at the distance.
The Golden Rose Stakes, Dato Tan Chin Nam and more: Preview and tips
Trainers love the idea of WFA preps knowing their horses are exempt…
Group One upgrades fail to elevate Australian racing
Great data Harada. While that 2yo prizepool looks small in comparison to the others I bet it’s big relative to Europe and America! Aussies love flogging their 2yos for all the reasons JC has mentioned. If we could shift some of the industry back to staying, we would have more Cup horses. Also that 3yo prizemoney is not evenly spread across middle dist and staying races. perhaps too much at each end (sprints – derbys/oaks’).
Group One upgrades fail to elevate Australian racing
Very well written JC. The Caulfield Cup winner probably should be exempt but as I understand it winners of races like the Bendigo Cup and CC meet the qualifying conditions for the Melbourne Cup and are subject to weight penalties. Their performances dictate whether they are worthy of climbing the ballot and making the field. When good local stayers like Niwot and At First Sight are the only top ten finishes in the Cup it seems the current system is working. Green Moon may have been injured and failed in the Lexus, Southern Speed did not pay up and Mourayan was lame in the Mackinnon. Tanby was not high enough in the ballot which may support your argument (of giving more locals exemption when they win Group handicaps) but personally I think he was a year off. I hope he qualifies this year, either way Lloyd will have a strong team and he will make the best of the system.
Group One upgrades fail to elevate Australian racing
I’ve just learned Tanby is likely to back up from Saturday into the Newcastle Cup and he will be hard to beat in both races. This could make the Caulfield Cup a high priority (currently $26) for him en route to the Melbourne Cup. His one run against Dunaden in the Geelong Cup taking 5kg off him was good so another 5-6kg this time in could make him competitive in a CC.
Spring racing: The hopes for the Cups and Plate
Hi Alfred,
I agree with you on Manighar. His first up run was incredible and he can go into the Cox 4th up and peaking. I think we can overlook his defeat to More Joyous in the Queen Elizabeth because he was 6th up in his first Australian WFA prep and back in distance from the 2400m BMW. I only give a slight edge to RI because he is proven at the Valley. However I was doing the form for the Dato the other night and I could not differentiate greatly between his and Alcopop’s runs there. This tells me Alcopop is overs for both the Dato ($15) and Cox ($101) and maybe neither are worth specking early. As for Nechita, the stable may not be able to make the weight, Lisa Cropp rode Miss Finland 1kg over in the 2006 Cox but someone like Chris Munce could be a light weight option or Bossy.
Spring racing: The hopes for the Cups and Plate
Hey guys,
I wrote this before I found out Dunlap had decided not to accept with Red Cadeaux for the Caulfield Cup (done my early $$ there!). My next best for the CC would be Excluded ($21) who has taken an identical prep to Green Moon last year and ran faster time than him in the Girls’ Day Out Hcp. I usually only advocate backing team Williams’ horses at Flemington but Lloyd wants to see what sort of a handicaper this bloke is and may test him with a light weight in the CC. Given he still has to qualify he is only a moderate chance to run.
Spring racing: The hopes for the Cups and Plate
Nice tips Cameron. Throw in Excluded. Lloyd’s horses fly over the 2000m at Flemington and Nick Williams said on Melbourne radio this morning Craig Williams has been nurturing this fella along and with ever run he is becoming more capable.
If anyone is having a look at the Doomben meeting, I really like Bold Glance in race 4. It’s only a field of 7 and apparently his recent gold coast trial was enormous. Went to the Warwick Stakes in Sydney last start and ran a credible 6th behind Pinwheel only beaten 2.2l. This is a big class drop and with a claiming jockey, he is only 4kg over the minimum for a 1350m race. $2.90 was on offer tonight, I’d say that is 2 points of value. Good punting.
Makybe Diva Stakes Day: Preview and tips
JC wrote re Makybe Diva Stakes >”Ten horses who finished in the top four of a race on this day at Flemington last year won during the Carnival; nine of them at Group level. The meeting produced six future Group One winners, four of which won at the highest level later that spring.”
And this year the field is deeper. Manighar has flourished under Moody and is sure to be competitive in lead up races to the Cox Plate. 12 months ago December Draw was a rising star and Kav says he’s come back bigger and stronger. Mawingo was super consistent during the Brisbane Winter carnival and could figure in this year’s Cox or Cups. Southern Speed has improved with every prep and this one could be no exception. I’d like to find an each way chance for Midas Touch but among this class he will struggle. I hope Efficient is back after the Sydney Cup second. I think Mourayan will need another run and like all of Lloyd’s, Flemington 2000m+ are their thing. I hope Moudre comes back to his best and there could be a win or two somewhere in the spring for Zabeelione and Shenzhou. He may be coming to the end if his prep but Second Effort could be the blow out if the rain comes. He looked the winner in yard at Caulfield and perhaps only the dry track got him.
I think you nailed it the two best bets on the card are Snitzerland and Excluded. Looking forward to both meets (Warwick Farm).
Makybe Diva Day to give a sneak peak of spring ahead
Hey Justin,
I played golf with a guy on Tuesday who would totally agree with you on the Cup becoming “too international” and losing some of its soul. I personally love the Vintage Crop and Media Puzzle stories as well as studying the overseas entrants to see how they might measure up.
I think the problem in Australia compared to Europe is the number of races over 2000m is reversed (i.e. 20%/80% v 80%/20%). With the majority of the industry here geared towards short course racing, we can not expect to produce the depth of stayers required to fill the majority of the field. Until that changes I don’t think making more lead up races around the country exempt will change things much, but there should definitely be some. Lloyd Williams would have some interesting things to say about it and he going about producing quality Cup entrants under difficult circumstances so it can be done.
Another great Australian Melbourne Cup story was Leica Falcon in 2005. Won a Corowa Class 1 by 5l over 1400m, jumped up to 2000m in a Class 4 at Wagga winning by 6.5l, came to Sandown and won a handicap over 2400m by 2.5l, that got him a start in the Winning Edge at Caulfield over 2400m (which he won by 2.5l), before he lucklessly ran 5th and 4th respectively in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.
Australian horses will still have freakish cup lead ups from time to time but unless the industry increases the number of staying races, associated prizemoney and breeding incentives not much will change. The industry seems pretty content with a dominance of short course racing and while that’s the case, I am happy to open the flood gates to the world’s best stayers.
Internationals eat away at soul of Melbourne Cup
Nice1 Matt. Talia, Cameron or Treloar would be reasonable winners in the end.
Greene with envy at AFL Rising Star
Hi Bayman,
It’s a fair point about Talia. His ability to shut down forwards is very impressive for a 20 year old but he’s playing in a very good team with excellent defensive pressure from the midfield, has Rutten, Reilly, Shaw and co. along slide him and the Crows had the softest draw in AFL history. I still think where Greene has come from to be as dominant as many of his more experienced opponents is super impressive.
Greene with envy at AFL Rising Star
Full credit to the winner must have residual fitness from the Winter. Tiger didn’t really handle the turn and was left a bit flat footed in the sprint home. Ready to Rip has been outstanding since going to Pete Moody.
Mooney Valley racing: Pierro - Stutt Stakes - Preview, tips, live blog