Selecting the winner of the Melbourne Cup is not easy. The horse has to be sharp on the day, handle the track conditions, get a nice run in transit and be advantaged by the tempo of the race.
The Roar can’t guarantee any of those crystal-ball type thoughts – however – we can give you facts that might help you find the winner.
Melbourne Cup 2012: Preview and top tips
Since Vintage Crop’s win in the 1993 Melbourne Cup, more and more internationals have contested the world’s richest 3200 metre handicap – and with recent hot success.
Media Puzzle (2002), Delta Blues (2006), Americain (2010) and Dunaden (2011) have since taken the Cup overseas.
This year’s field features 18 imported/overseas horses including previous winners Dunaden and Americain, last year’s runner up Red Cadeaux, and the progressive Mount Athos, Galileo’s Choice and My Quest For Peace.
This is the strongest contingent of foreign raiders we have ever had in the Cup and an import is odds on to repeat the feat.
The only Australian/NZ home grown talent is Lights of Heaven, Ethiopia, Maluckyday, Niwot, Zabillionaire and Precedence.
The legendary Bart Cummings has managed a remarkable 12 victories, the last being Viewed in 2008. He has the imported Sanagas and two-time competitor Precedence (his best finish being 8th in 2010) this year.
There are only five multiple winners of the Melbourne Cup in history, the last being three time champion mare Makybe Diva (2003, 2004, 2005).
In the past decade the average Melbourne Cup weight carried to victory is 54kg. The highest weight carried to victory in the last 20 years is 58kg (Makybe Diva, 2005).
Four and five year old horses have the best record with 43 winners each. However in the past 11 years, 5 six year olds have won including Dunaden last year.
Entires have won 64 times followed by geldings 50, mares 13 (Lights of Heavens is this year’s only mare), 21 colts and three fillies (neither of which are represented).
Barrier 18 (Red Cadeaux) is the only barrier never to produce a winner. Barriers 9-12 (Maluckyday, Kelinni, Galileo’s Choice, Americain) have produced 4 victories in the past 11 years.
Saddle cloth numbers 4 (Red Cadeaux) and 12 (Galileo’s Choice) are the most successful with 11 wins. The top weight (Dunaden) has won nine times.
The favourite has saluted 32 times at a strike rate of 21% in 151 years. The last favourite to win was Makybe Diva in 2005. The average price of the last three winners is $10.20.
Popular lead in races include the Caulfield Cup (produced 5 winners in the last 30 years), Mackinnon Stakes (4 winners), Geelong Cup (3), Cox Plate (3), Lexus (2), Turnbull Stakes (2) and Moonee Valley Cup (1).
This year the primary form race is likely to be the Caulfield Cup with 7 of the top 10 entered in the Melbourne Cup (Dunaden 1st, Lights of Heaven 3rd, Americain 4th, My Quest For Peace 5th, Zabillionaire 6th, Winchester 9th, Sanagas 10th).
Therefore the winner’s profile is an imported galloper, carrying around 54kg, 5YO/6YO entire or gelding, drawn a mid-range barrier and comes out of the Caulfield Cup.
Glencadam Gold ticks all these boxes but he finished a disappointing 15th in the Caulfield Cup as favourite.
My Quest For Peace would have scored higher (with his 5th placing in the Caulfield Cup) except he has drawn an inside barrier (1).
Of the imported gallopers which have not had a lead in run, Mount Athos scores well in these categories.
Profile tips: 1. My Quest For Peace, 2. Mount Athos, 3. Glencadam Gold.
Melbourne Cup 2012 Photos
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