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Tomorrow brings with it the first meeting of the spring at Australia’s true racing headquarters, with the feature named after the nation’s greatest staying mare.
My colleague, Justin Cinque, yesterday wrote that we can expect to see many of the horses at Flemington and Warwick Farm tomorrow show up and win races throughout the Spring Carnival, and there will be a great deal to be learned from almost every event on each card.
In the meantime, let’s see if we can find some winners in the short term.
Feature event: Makybe Diva Stakes
Once you eliminate the dead-set stayers, and those with not enough class or versatility to win over a mile at weight-for-age, this race thins out quite a bit, with the market rightly being narrowed down to four runners with a genuine chance, and one with a speculative one.
Southern Speed is the early $3.20 favourite off the back of two more than satisfactory efforts upon resumption in Adelaide before coming across the border.
I’m not completely convinced that she’s quite as comfortable at Flemington as she is at Caulfield, but with race fitness on her side, she’ll be in it for a long way under the care of Craig Williams.
Manighar comes in on the second line at $3.60, and one suspects he’ll be challenging the South Australian mare for favouritism come race time. Trainer Peter Moody is making all the right noises to suggest a big first-up run is in the offing, and from barrier five with Luke Nolen on board, no horse is going to get a better run in transit.
Mawingo is rated a $4.60 chance, and I think he’s the value in the race. He wiped the floor with a more than handy field over this track and distance last time he was first-up, and his quality was confirmed when he defeated both Manighar and Lights of Heaven at group one WFA in the Doomben Cup.
Daniel Moor gets his chance to graduate to the big leagues, and I don’t expect him to have any issues finding a position from a wide gate.
All eyes will be on December Draw when the field straightens to see what he can produce in his first run since being injured as Caulfield Cup favourite eleven months ago. I’m not going to say he can’t win at the $8 mark, but what a training feat it would be.
Second Effort was not much more than a wet track sprinter a month ago, but is now a group two WFA winner in the Lawrence Stakes over 1400m, and the owner of a third in a more talent-laden Memsie Stakes on the good.
He’s having his first crack at a mile tomorrow, which sees him at a potentially lucrative $17. I won’t be backing him, but I wouldn’t talk you out of it.
So keep an eye on these five as the chances in the race tomorrow, but be sure to watch all runners on replay, as they’ll all be featuring again several times in the big races over the next two months.
Better than bank interest
Although not exactly up against a field of goats, it really is hard to go past Snitzerland from the Gerald Ryan stable in the Danehill as the best short price bet of the day.
She’s coming off an easy first-up win in the San Domenico, and her main danger is Rusambo who’ll be giving her a decent start. He shouldn’t be able to get close if the Pierro/All Too Hard from the Autumn stacks up to any sort of level, and Snitzerland looks to have the rest covered.
She’ll jump and run under the hold of Damian Oliver, has crucial winning experience up the straight, and is extremely well weighted under the Set Weights plus Penalties conditions of the race, so have no fear at having a crack at the $1.70, or taking her one-out in the first leg of the quaddie.
Each-way all day
It might seem strange to nominate a 19 horse race down the straight six furlongs at Flemington as the object of a bet, but there’s a horse here that is ideally suited, and brings some of the hottest sprint from around into the race.
Shanghai Warrior has only had the nine starts, but is already maturing into a horse of quality and is improving leaps and bounds every start.
The last time we saw him, he comfortably accounted for the likes of Golden Archer and Zamorar in the group three Aurie’s Star over this very course.
The former was coming off his own impressive win and then demolished a smart Listed field at Caulfield last week, while the latter went on to run second at WFA behind Second Effort, which then franked the form again with a third in the Memsie, as described in the Makybe Diva Stakes preview above.
He’s been kept sharp with a trial since his previous run, and has been gelded too which should add a couple of lengths!
Because he’s from the unfashionable Pat Hyland stable, we’re getting a great each-way price at around $7.
Rose’s Roughie
I hope you got on Lady of Harrod’s after being tipped in this section last week at around the $31 mark (up to $51 was bet early in some markets). Let’s see if we can find something again!
I wonder if we can’t get our day off to a flyer, and find something in race one at Flemington to salute at odds.
The John Thompson-trained Affable is the one I like, and while ostensibly looking for further, I suspect she can come over the top of them if the pressure goes on in a sixteen horse field.
She is one of only four fillies nominated for the Cox Plate which gives us an idea of the stable’s opinion, and her three length victory over a couple of smart types the last time she saw the track spoke of a horse that was going places.
Watch for her to be reeling off the sectionals late, she’ll be the eye-catcher as the widest runner hitting the line hard. Hopefully for us, the rest of the field is behind her when she does.
It’s an exciting day of racing in two states, and there will be much information gleaned once the races have been run and won.
Don’t be afraid to watch on if you can’t find anything you like, as tomorrow is largely a day of education, and you’ll reap the rewards in the long run.