After the Flemington Makybe Diva Stakes meeting we have had a couple of weeks to assess the Spring hopes of many of the leading contenders.
Preceding the Makybe Diva, was the Memsie Stakes meeting at Caulfield, and either of the two races are traditional Melbourne lead offs for horses looking to the Spring features (i.e. the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup).
We have also had a few weeks good racing in Sydney at Warwick Farm and Rosehill.
The international horses booked for the first shipment down under are also about to enter quarantine, so we have a pretty good idea of which raiders are serious about acclimatising to local conditions.
These are my thoughts on some of the hopefuls for our great Spring races.
Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Early pick: Dunaden (58kgs) $18. Starting chance: high. Expected barrier price: $6-$10.
Last year the Melbourne Cup hero kicked off his Australian preparation with a win in the Group Three Geelong Cup. Top weight in this year’s Caulfield Cup, some will say the stable don’t want to win to avoid a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup. However first prize is $1.5 million, which could be his best pay day of the Spring.
The stable knows how difficult back to back Melbourne Cups are to achieve and the Caulfield Cup does not usually have the same field depth. Dunaden has had 12 runs at 2400m for four wins and seven minor placings and the likely rider engagement is Craig Williams.
Next best: Red Cadeaux (55.5kgs) $21. Starting chance: moderate. Expected barrier price: $9-$16.
The hard luck story of last year’s Melbourne Cup is coming back again to go one better in a Spring feature. He is likely to tune up for the Melbourne Cup with a run in the Caulfield Cup and unlike last year, he is very well weighted against his rival.
There was only half a kilogram between them in the Melbourne Cup (which Dunaden won by a nose) and three quarters of a length between the pair at level weights when they last met at Royal Ascot in June. In the Caulfield Cup Red Cadeaux is 2.5kgs lighter than his rival and he also has an excellent record at 2400m (9-3-4).
Long shot: Zurella (50kgs) $41. Starting chance (has to qualify). Expected barrier price: $16-$21.
Anyone who saw her dominant win in the 1400m Group Two Let’s Elope Stakes on Saturday would be impressed with this progressive 4yo mare by Zabeel. Her trainer Shaune Ritchie says she is very forward in an attempt to qualify her for the Caulfield Cup, which she will achieve if she wins the Group Three Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield on 22 September.
The Let’s Elope Stakes is usually a good Spring guide with last year’s winner and runner up Pinker Pinker and Mid Summer Music going on to Group 1 glory.
Cox Plate (2040m)
Early pick: Pierro (49.5kgs) $5.50. Starting chance: high. Expected barrier price: $2.50-$4.
This undefeated boom colt from the Gai Waterhouse stable returned in style Saturday week ago with an authoritative win in the juvenile Group Three Run to the Rose over 1200m. The stable has said all along this colt will be aimed at the Cox Plate via the Caulfield Guineas in an attempt to boost his stud potential.
Unlike the hype over last year’s pre-race favourite Helmet, this 3yo has a proven middle distance pedigree and a previous win at 1600m over this year’s VRC Oaks (2500m) favourite Dear Demi.
Next best: Rekindled Interest (59kgs) $13. Starting chance: high. Expected barrier price: $7-$14.
His overall record is not that impressive at 17 starts – 3 wins – 4 minor placings, however both wins at Group level have been at Moonee Valley (1600m & 2040m) and he ran a luckless third in the event last year. The Cox Plate has become the stable’s number one goal and the seasoned 5yo (along with Peter Moody’s Manighar) may be the biggest threat to Pierro, although he has to carry 9.5kgs more than the colt.
Long shot: Nechita (47.5kgs) $51. Starting chance (low). Expected barrier price: $5-$9.
As Roar Racing expert Justin Cinque recently wrote, Nechita could be this year’s star of the Spring. The rising 3yo filly has improved lengths since the Autumn and the secret is out how good she could be.
Expected to go around a warm favourite in the Group One 1400m Golden Rose this Saturday at Rosehill, Nechita could follow a similar path to Samantha Miss in 2008 culminating in the Cox Plate and VRC Oaks events. If she takes her place in the field, she has an even bigger weight advantage than Pierro over the seasoned weight for age horses.
Melbourne Cup (3200m)
Early pick: Mount Athos (54kgs approx.) $13. Starting chance: high. Expected barrier price: $7-$12.
Still with eight weeks until the first Tuesday in November, I can’t remember a bigger boom on a Cup raider in recent years. During a seven month lay-off he transferred to the Luca Cumani stable and resumed with an impressive win at Newmarket over 2816m with 61.5kgs.
UK punters got wind that he was being aimed at the Melbourne Cup and his 81 pound price began to tumble. A third consecutive win in August has installed him Cup favourite and having seen video footage of his last run, he appears to have the tactical speed to suit Australian racing.
Next best: Green Moon (53.5kgs approx.) $13. Starting chance (high). Expected barrier price: $7-$12.
The most fancied runner of leviathan owner Lloyd Williams “Cups crew”, Green Moon has been outstanding since one run in the Autumn when he won the Group Two Blamey Stakes over 1600m at Flemington. He resumed in the 1400m Memsie Stakes Saturday week ago at Caulfield running slashing late sectionals to finish on the heels of the place getters.
This campaign, Williams and trainer Robert Hickmott are taking a gentle approach with their talented stayer and he will probably bypass the Caulfield Cup to protect the weight for the Melbourne Cup (which is typically won with 53-56kgs).
Long shot: Mourayan (53.5kgs approx.) $51. Starting chance (high). Expected barrier price: $19-$31.
Another of the Williams team, Mourayan is ultra consistent in staying races at Group level and goes well at Flemington.
In his last four races at 2000m+ he has finished 3rd, 1st, 2nd and 3rd and he resumed with an outstanding run in the Makybe Diva Stakes on Saturday (beaten 2.5l). William’s horses are trained to peak at Flemington on the first Tuesday in November and if the 7yo who has had some leg issues can stay sound, he will put himself in the finish again.
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