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Joined August 2009
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While Australia's Olympic team underperformed at the Rio 2016 games, is the medal tally the best way to measure our team's performance? The medal…
I've reluctantly come to accept that State of Origin will never be meaningfully resurrected in the AFL. The clubs won't support it, no one…
As far as the Australian Sports Commission is concerned, the measure of the success of Australian sporting high performance programs is how many Olympic…
Both Dean Robinson and James Hird could well believe they are telling the truth because that's how they remember things now. The actual truth…
There wouldn't be an Australian over the age of 20 who doesn't vividly remember Cathy Freeman's run in the final of the women's 400m…
Is there a more demanding role in sport than than of the NFL starting quarterback? I think not. Sometimes it's easy to get blasé…
Roughly a quarter of the way through the NFL 2012 Season and what do we know? Well, for a start, my August 18 Roar…
The NFL fills a satisfying niche for this Australian football fan. Just when the AFL and NRL regular seasons are winding down, along comes…
I think most of us are over the overblown corporate and media hype surrounding the Olympic Games. We are completely nonplussed by the money…
One of the main reasons I enjoyed the book Moneyball so much was that I felt like I was reading about a bunch of…
[caption id="attachment_33887" caption="St Kilda\'s Justin Koschitzke and Collingwood\'s Darren Jolly contest the throw-in during the AFL Round 16 match between the Collingwood Magpies and…
I realise I run the risk of bringing the ire of the entire Roar community down upon me, but I really think the Olympics,…
Let me preface this article by saying upfront that rugby isn’t my number one football code and I had very little exposure to the…
The Socceroos lamentable performance against Germany has raised some serious questions about our national team and our high performance development plans. I know it’s…
Admittedly it's only the pre-season, but any objective analysis raises some serious question marks over St.Kilda this year. They haven't played well in any…
There’s been a lot of conjecture about whether or not the Western Sydney AFL team will be successful and even more about the ignition…
Whilst I applaud the passion and fervour with which football fans follow their sport, I’m always bewildered by their assertions that the sport is…
[caption id="attachment_22310" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Jason Blake and Colm Begley of St KIlda collide with Grant Birchall of Hawthorn during the AFL Round 19 match…
Clearly the two best fielders in the game at the moment are Gary Ablett and Chris Judd. Gary Ablett is a magnificent player and…
With the loss of the Ashes, we’re seeing the usual and expected recriminations and calling for heads to roll. Sells a few papers, but…
I’m amazed so many people even care about this topic!
What would Beckham bring to the A-League?
No he’s not. But I think he’ll wind up having the best calendar year. And he deserves every plaudit he gets for elevating his batting whilr bearing the pressure of captaincy.
Clarke is the greatest Australian batsman since Bradman
Ignore Strummer Jones Nick and keep having an opninion. Thats why the Roar is a great place – we can all voice our opinions.
As to Izzy I personally think he gave it away too early. It wasn’t until his 2nd year that Karmchael Hunt started to look like a player and he had at least played the game at school. It took Mike Pyke 3 years to get to where he is now.
Izzy had the talent to be at least as good as those two (I would have backed to him to be much better than Pyke in the long haul) if he perservered and in his last game of the year he showed bit of what might have been.
As to his off field contribution – if you’re at GWS and you’re going to wheel out some big name players for a potential sponsor who are you going to use? Tom Scully? No-one out there knows the young fellow! Izzy on the other hand. . . .
Last season if you had asked any kid in any primary school in western sydney to name who plays for GWS the first player named would have been Israel Folau and I doubt if any kid would get more than 2 others! (That will all change in a few years though)
So you’d have to say he’s been worth the investment.
The AFL's great Israel Folau flop
It’s always puzzled me why the exceptional goal kickers in Rugby League and Rugby Union haven’t had a crack at the NFL the way some of the guys who were exceptional kicks in the AFL have. If Sav Rocca can punt why can’t Hazem El’Mazri knock them over the cross bar?
I definitely think thats worth NFL clubs exploring more closely. Zurelein has been a revelation for the RAMS this year showing how important the position is.
But unless you have elite highly specialised kicking skills the pathway to the NFL will be via US College system where young Jesse Williams is currently blazing the trail at Alabama. Should he be drafted (and he is a chance) then people will start to see that as a viable pathway.
Is Australia a potential American football powerhouse?
I like the watching Baltimore and they look like they finally got that Pittsburgh monkey off their back last season.
I like the look of your multi to…. very promising atm.
Are you thinking about having a covering bet on the Steelers? They appear to be the only fly in your ointment.
NFL 2012 recap - the season so far
WB you’d have to happy with your 49ers so far. Last season definitely wasn’t a one hit wonder.
But you might be in for a bit of trouble if you start asking Smith to things he doesn’t excel at…..
NFL 2012 recap - the season so far
I really don’t know yet Cameron as I said… Their defence has been pretty good and they have the bloke I reckon is the the best wide receiver in the game but….. Can they sustain this form long enough or will thier bubble burst? It could go either way
NFL 2012 recap - the season so far
Scuba I think the main issue with the VRC Derby distance is the helter skelter charge to the first corner with “greenish” horses. It’s their welfare that’s the major concern. In that respect it’s not unlike the Golden Slipper.
And that may be why we don’t see many Deraby winners go on with it.
In full agreement with the need for more staying races though. The public love to watch the horses run past them twice.
My fearless predictions for the Spring Carnival
Disappointed to hear that Cameron because I backed Arizona at $1.83 this morning!
I think if you look more closely at ARI’s defensive statistics for the season thus far you’ll see they stack up quite well whilst STL’s offence has been atrocious. Even with the away game I still think they’re value this week.
That said I deliberatley left them out of my analysis because I’m just not sure what to make of them just yet – are they playing above themselves or getting on a role that will carry them to the playoffs? Time will tell…..
NFL 2012 recap - the season so far
Good ppoint BA but it’s not so much about his onfield contribution as the circus he brought to town with him and the subsequent speculation, which I’m sure will begin to mount now Sanchez has had a questionable start, about the starting QB position.
The de-stabilising effects can’t be good for the Jets
NFL 2012 recap - the season so far
I’m not sure what to make of the Cardinals just yet so I’m reserving judgement for the time being.
As to the Vikings – I do agree Ponder has made some big strides this year but they won their last game courtesy of their special teams units. Their offensive performance was actually quite ordinary.
The team I’d most like to have my money on at the moment is Houston – they have no obvious weakness and win through consistency or performance across the whole squad rather than the efforts of a couple of stars.
Mind you at this stage last year I thought Green Bay were good things so what do I know?
NFL Week 4: The Vikings make some noise
Nicely wrapped up but don’t underestimate the performance of the Cowboys (seems a long while ago now!). They have better cover defence and an overall harder defensive edge this year. They will be VERY competitive in their division.
NFL Week 1: Monday night recap
A smokey would have to be the Falcons. Ryan is looking more confident with his deep passing ang Julio Jones has been carving them up during the preseason
2012/13 NFL season preview: the teams to beat
You’ve got to love the Steelers defensive intensity. And Big Ben is as good as anyone at pulling out clutch plays in match winning situations. Ravens looked like they finally removed the Steeler monkey from there backs last season though!
Good call on Flynn. . . I’ll keep an eye on him
Finally, the new NFL season is coming
Oops! Of course he does. . . and the Jags aren’t the only team who wish they had him! Magnificent athlete that he is
I give both the Packers and Texans a big chance to.
It’s such a wide open comp this year there are 4 to 6 teams in each conference that wouldn’t surprise
Finally, the new NFL season is coming
Definitely worth looking at…. This year NMFC played GC, GWS and Melbourne 5 times in total and will probably get in on the back of that (yes I know, I know …. they’re firing on all 8 cylinders now but thos matches kept them in touch when things weren’t so rosy)
However I’m not sure the clubs are really prepared to sacrifice the profits from blockbusters, derbies and showdowns.,.,.
Solution for a fairer AFL draw
Fair point Brian but when a sport like Football places special conditions (eg. age restrictions) on it’s Olympic competition so that its own Wolrd Cup pre-eminence isn’t tarnished maybe it’s time to go….
The case for downsizing the Olympic Games
What should also be looked at is how more of the profits from an Olympic Games can be channeled back into the actual sports participating rather than the IOC coffers
The case for downsizing the Olympic Games
How about establishing a critera for olympic sports around whether or not Olympic Competition is the genuine pinnacle for that sport. That would leave out Tennis (which has the Grand Slams), Golf (ditto), Football (which has the World Cup), Rugby (ditto) and maybe a few more…?
The case for downsizing the Olympic Games
I do see where you’re coming from Chris but what about the likes of Nic Riewoldt? The AIS U16 Squad usually has a fair representation from NSW/ACT, NT, Qld, and Tasmania combined and the old Allies concept was well supported by the players
East vs West AFL All Star game will not work
The most likely scenario of an East v West fixture is that it will degenerate into the exhibition farce that is the NFL Pro Bowl. I’m a massive NFL fan (probably my second favorite code) but I never watch the Pro Bowl because there is no passion in the crowd and the players are on junket to show off their offensive skills, there are even rules restricting the attack on the quarterback. Noone wants a pinnacle match like that for our code. And I’m not even sure a Vics vs the Rest wouldn’t wind up like that to.
State of Origin or nothing for mine. Every 2 years I’d love to see 4 teams play over two weekends during that year (Vics, SA, WA, Allies), A plays B & C plays D, then loser v loser and winner v winner for the Australian Championship – with the final two matches being used to determine the seedings and home grounds in R1 for the next Australian Championships 2 years later.
We all know and understand the reasons why something like that won’t happen but wouldn’t it be great to see the best of the best against each other?
East vs West AFL All Star game will not work
A fellow stats nerd! Well done Adrian! (and sorry for taking a while to reply but I was away over Easter)
I agree percentage is a powerful indicator, my figures for last year’s season showed a correlation between percentage and number of wins to be 0.97 (not including finals). My metric Proficiency Score (PS) correlated at 0.93 over the full year. But there’s another powerful metric! – Inside 50% (Inside 50s for / Inside 50s against x 100) last season that had a correlation of 0.97 with season wins.
When you combine all three metrics you get a correlation of just over 0.98.
The advantage of looking at PS and Inside 50% as well the actual score during a game is that if you can identify a change in trend in one or both of those metrics it may signal a change in “momentum”. The other thing I’ve noticed is that a team very rarely loses when the difference in PS is greater than 10.
As to which is best during the game? I look at PS and Inside 50% closely and also the current score before making a decision any punting decision. I noticed Dermot Brereton on a broadcast earlier this season said that the team that reaches 100 points first wins 90 something % of matches (can’t remember the exact figure!). Makes sense to me since the average score is about 93 points so a score of 100 would win more games than it loses anyway. I’d be very interested to know the figures around the team reaching the league average score first (i.e 93) ! which could be an excellent pointer during matches. As you correctly point out the score is essentially a complicated statistic.
Of course we’re along way from a perfect model – fantastic game on Monday and Geelong had a PS of 94.78 and Hawthorn – 105.94 so it should have been a Hawthorn victory. And Hawthorn also won the % Inside 50 with 103.7%!
So where did Geelong win the game? They had a way more efficient forward line – greater accuracy in kicking for goal and higher point score per inside 50 (1.74 points per inside 50 entry as opposed to Hawthorn’s 1.64). No doubt the dominance of their key forwards Hawkins and Podsiadly contributed to this forward line efficiency.
I think another article on the most valuable stats and stats I’d like to see may be warranted!
Cheers Adrian
Contest, attack, defend: the key to victories
Sonny Bill vs Barry Hall
Isn’t that what we all want to see?
Sonny Bill wins title in first round
Eddie Mercx must be shade unlucky
My best 20 sportsmen of all time