Sonny Bill vs Barry Hall
Isn’t that what we all want to see? be a pay TV extravaganza!

A great Superbowl moment. . . In fact a great sporting moment full stop.
Its been another fantastic NFL season and how happy am I with the amount of coverage in Australia this year?!
The NFL is my perfect summer footy fix.

This Superbowl has a lot of Deja Vu around it – not just with 2008 because the Giants remind me a lot of last year’s Packers’ Superbowl run.

I’ve done all my usual analysis and I can’t split them in probability.

Should be a great game, can’t wait!

Tip for those of you annoyed with the adds (if you have access to a hard drive recording system like foxtel IQ or a digital set top box) start watching the game 20 minutes late and fast forward the adds – catches you up in about a half of football.

Get the beers and the pies ready now!

Other elements of the St.Kilda performance aside the major point driven home is that the stadium deal the clubs are getting at Etihad is the major scourge of the game for Victorian Clubs. My friends in Victoria often ridicule the crowd sizes at NRL games. . . until I point out that St.George make money out of 8000 at Kogarah while St.Kilda lose money from 22000 at Etihad.

It’s a ridiculous situation and the sooner the AFL takes over the better.

Cricket now gives us 3 forms of the game to appreciate – how many sports can boast that? T20, One-Day and Test Cricket. While some fans may have a strong preference for one form or another many cricket fans can appreciate each form of the game and enjoy the entertainment it provides.

It would be a big mistake to believe that the popularity of one form of the game will have an impact on another form of the game.

The strong ratings and attendances cricket has achieved this year only confirm to me that cricket is our only truly national sport and are they are a reflection of a re-surgent Australian Team.

I notice Channel 9 want to get in on the BBL action now to. I had my doubts before the BBL kicked off. . . but hats off to the ACB for having the courage of their convictions and bringing a vibrant new sporting competition to the Australian Summner.

I think something has to be done about and so I’ll throw my suggestions out there for ridicule….

1. Bottom 6 teams go into a ballot to determine draft picks 1 – 6.

2. Priority Picks remain but are given out after pick 6 in the first round

3. At the conclusion of R17 the bottom 6 clubs compete for significant, tiered cash prizes over the last 5 rounds. They receive 1 point for every team below them that that they beat and 2 points for every team above them that they beat. Cash prize for 1st to 6th in this late season competition to partially replace AFL $$ assistance packages to sturuggling clubs.

Now I’m sure you all have problems with that…..

and he’s a better kick than shaun dempster

I enjoy a punt on sport and I disagree with the idea that the odds are always stacked against you but I must say that’s what the Bookies try to achieve. When an event is truly a 50-50 contest the Bookies set the prices at something like $1.95 v $1.95 so the pay out is marginally less than the true odds – hence their “advantage”. If you want to take punting on sport more seriously and make money in the long haul you have to spend time assessing the odds accurately, track form and statistics that are true indicators of good form. Then you must make objective judgements about what the true odds for the event are.

Once you’ve done this you can compare your odds with those set by the bookmaker and bet when you think the bookmaker has made an error in your favor (i.e your assessment of the true odds is $2.50 and the bookmaker is offering $3.00). I this situation an Irish statistician named Kelly has come up with a formula that tells you how much of your bank you should bet.

Notice in this situation I only expect to win 40% of the time but if my assessment is right the Bookies odds more than pay for my losses.

Of course the Bookies aren’t often wrong and when they are it usually isn’t by a big margin but this is the theory behind successful sports bettting (and I have the results over the last 3 seasons of the AFL and NFL to prove it does work if your discliplined).

I do agree that betting on hunches is a long term, losing strategy (even though I still have the ocasional $10 bet when watching a game at the pub)

Even if you don’t want to go through the statistcal analysis you should always ask yourself “If these two teams play each other 10 times what would I expect the result to be?” and compare this percentage with the Bookie’s percentage before you bet.

Having said all of that even I agree that the promotion of odds for sports events is way over top. I don’t mind the Sports Betting Companies sponsoring teams, events and venues but I think the commentators should just comment on the game.

I actually think some legislation along the lines of banning the mention of odds on radio and television from 1/2 an hour before the game until the conclusion of the event is in order.

And when a sports punter like me thinks this way we’ve definitely got a problem

What century are you living in mate?

Every new TV has a digital tuner and you can pick up One HD on that without unplugging your Foxtel Box. If you want to watch it via your set top box (which is handy if it has pvr functionality because you can pause and rewind just like Foxtel IQ) most modern TVs have 2 HDMI inputs. Or you can run both Foxtel and your set top box into an AV receiver to send either picture to your television at your choice (and you get the benefits of 5.1 sound when the broadcast caters to it)

Time to upgrade I’d say!

My advice
Flat screen TV with Digital Tuner (LCD if you watch mostly in a brightly lit room, Plasma if its a mostly darkened room) 106cm for a standard size room, 116cm for bigger than average room
Foxtel IQ (HD optional)
PVR Set Top Box (eg. Topfield)
AV Receiver
Quality speakers and sub woofer (5 speakers is preferable but most programs are broadcast in stereo so 2 good quality spekers will do the trick)

And start really enjoying your viewing experience

Here endeth the lesson….

What is this thing the “A-League” that people on here like to write about?

Every year it’s hard to see the previous year’s premiers being beaten when the season rolls around but the facts are that Back to Back premierships don’t come along all that often – it’s a very difficult competition to win.

The Pies will be very strong this year and no doubt will finish in the top 4 which will give them a great opportunity. But from that point on luck with form and injuries during the finals has an enormous influence and probably each of the teams who finish in the top 4 this year will have an even chance to take out the cup.

I can’t wait.

I agree that something has to be done with the rules and their interpretation to cut down on professional penalties and make the game more free flowing and also surely it’s time Rugby considered intorducing the interchange system, so teams have the opportunity to freshen up their playmakers and make tactical positional changes during the course of a half.

I hate it when a good player comes off 10 minutes before the end of the match because he’s knackered even though his team needs him. It’s not his fault, he’s given his all, but an interchange system would enable coaches to ensure their best players could contribute more dynamically at the end of each half.

And maybe then we’d see more attacking play.

A well thought out analysis Wookie.

Think you might have overestimated Carlton’s chances though. And what about the Western Bulldogs?

If we’re to pay any credence to historical results there’s a good chance one of the bottom 8 teams from last year will jump up and become a top 4 contender (last year it was Fremantle). Which bottom 8 team from last year is most likely to make that jump I wonder?

(Adelaide?)

Frank who?

Australian Football is never going to rule the world.

But what it will do is unearth some exciting new talent form previously unthought of sources. And these guys will bring a new dimension to the game.

Exciting times!

If the GF was played at ANZ Stadium in Sydney you wouldn’t have the extreme ticketing pressure for the AFL and MCC Members.

You’d only have to play it there once to show you’re genuinley concerned with getting more fans to the game and I bet that would loosen things up at the MCG in future

There are definitely some AFL players who could adapt successully to the NRL if they were given some time to learn the game but it will never happen because they are too highly paid in their current competition. It would be impossible for an existing NRL Club to fit them into their salary cap and way too big a gamble if they could.

So the only way it could happen is through an expansion club which doesn’t appear too close on the horizon.

Having said that here’s a list of players who could make the the jump if they were given some development time.
Dane Swan
Lenny Hayes
Gary Ablett
Joel Selwood
Ryan Griffen
Luke Hodge
Sam Mitchell
Chris Judd
Matthew Pavlich
Jonathon Brown
Nic Natanui

And there’s probably others but these guys just spring to mind first.

Sadly the Bulldogs are gone! I don’t think they have any shots left to fire.

As to the MCG, at least the Swannies have had the chance to play there this year (unlike Fremantle).

I doubt its an issue

I have to say that I’m in complete agreement with Cameron Schwab and Brendon Gale that player confidentiality is vital to the treatment process. There’s an argument to involve the player welfare manager at the club earlier but those people aren’t as well trained in confidentiality as doctors.

And to Jeff Kennett – if it’s so important your club knows and you’re convinced your club can deal with the problem appropriately why not just introduce your own internal drug testing policy?

Nicely written Brittany.

It’s quite common when you hear, read, watch a story of someone with an addictive problem (be it drugs, alcohol or gambling) who manages to come out the other side that the individual reaches a low point in their lives that causes them to take pause and realise how destuctive the path they are on is. If this happened to Ben Cousins it wasn’t immediately obvious in the documentary. Perhaps it did occur when he was living with his family in 2008, certainly his father and sister’s commentary of that period was harrowing viewing. But it would have been good to see Ben admit to it rather than tell us his tears were private and for his family only. I’m worried for him because if he hasn’t hit that low point yet he might at some stage in the future.

The documentary also missed on the opportunity of interviewing some of his West Coast team mates during the worst of his times. It would have been fascinating to hear from the likes of Chris Judd, Michael Gardiner and Dean Cox and have them explain the impact on the team dynamics and the respect they had for Ben Cousins. The closest we got to this was a snippet from John Worsfold.

Like wise some interviews with some Richmond’s younger players exploring the influence he’s had on them would have been very interesting.

It was compelling viewing at times but could have been so much better.

Scientists have known for years that caffeine improves endurance performance (it was thought to be through a glycogen sparing effect but now they think a different mechanism maybe involved) and recently it has been proven to have a short term positive effect on sprint and power activities.

But its proving very problematic to identify the correct dosages beacuse individuals respond differently to the same dose and coffee drinkers have acquired a tolerance.

It’s legal substance in our society and now we know it works ALL sports have experimented with its usage to determine best practice. The Wallabies have been using it for years.

Parents and junior coaches will just have to continue to explain that what happens in elite sport isn’t always appropriate in junior sport. After all if we don’t want kids playing with pain killing injections why would we want them drinking cans of Red Bull?

I don’t think it’s a good thing either (for all the reasons you’ve identified and more) but unless WADA put caffeine back on the banned list elite athletes will continue to use it.

Is the message getting through Mr. Fahey?

The biggest question when we move to 18 teams will be whether we have a sufficient talent base to support all teams going forward or are we just going to see a dilution of quality?

While Australian Football continues to such a minor sport in NSW and Qld this will continue to be an issue.

But the only way to grow the popularity of the game and make it more national is take it to those people – so geographic expansion becomes necessary.

The real issue for mine is the number of teams in Melbourne. If that number was reduced (relocations and mergers etc.) we could achieve geographic expansion without diluting playing strength.

2 teams in Qld, 2 teams in Sydney, 2 teams in Adelaide, 2 teams in Perth, a team in Canberra, a team in Tasmania and 6 teams in Melbourne – an elite 14 team competition with 26 rounds, get rid of the preseason competiton and everyone plays each other twice. 7 rounds per weekend with each match in a stand alone time slot.

Of course there’s way too much emotional baggage out there for that to happen but wouldn’t be great?

I really don’t see why this issue is creating so much angst. Let’s just be logical.

The AFL Team based in Western Sydney will train and have an administrative home at great venue in Blacktown. Unfortunately that venue isn’t serviced very well by public transport and parking is somewhat limited. So for AFL match purposes it’s really only suitable for the NAB Cup or pre-season games.

So where will the new team play? Let’s give that some thought….. the venue needs to be;
1) Located in Sydney’s western suburbs
2) Easily accesssed by public transport
3) Have ample parking
4) Have seating capacity for about 20,000

Where would that be exactly? No currently existing stadium meets all four criteria and it would be folly to build a completely new stadium. Therefore which stadium offers the best compromise? It’s obvously the Showgrounds.

As to whether it services the people living in Sydneys western suburbs, well you could make a fair agument that it wouldn’t service everyone no matter where it’s located because western sydney is so large – Does a stadium in Blacktown work for you if you live in Campbelltown?

I defer to the demographic surveys of Swans matches and Waratahs matches at ANZ both of which attract a significant proportion of the crowd residing in Sydney’s west.

Sure the showgrounds aren’t perfect but there’s good public transport and plenty of parking and being just west of Sydney’s demographic centre its probabaly the fairest option for all.

At least they’re having a crack at something a little different.

Unlike you I can see plenty of positives, usually on the last day of a tournament all the interested is focussed on the last 4-5 groups because its nearly imposible to gain enough ground and win from any further back.

During the Surfcoast Tournament everyone will start “square” on the last day. And the six hole match play format has the potential to highlight drama and action much earlier and on a more regular basis during the day. Also, as every golfer knows, match play is a much speedier version of the game because once the hole is lost the player picks up and moves on to the next whole and once the match is lost thats it (even if it happens on the 4th whole of the 6).

Personally I’ll be watching with an open mind.

I have to say I agree with the sentiments expressed by you Rich Daddy.

I’ve been a regular punter on the AFL and NFL for quite a few years and I used to think the marketing restrictions on sports betting agencies were ridiculous. But even I think the emphasis placed on odds during commentary and analysis is way over the top.

And unless something is done now it will only get worse.

All the sports betting agencies are currently lobbying for a change in leglislation to enable internet betting while the game is in progress. And why shouldn’t you be able to bet on the outcome during the game via internet when you can do so via the phone?

If the legislative change takes place the problem will be the impact on tv commentary and analysis – we’ll get constant updates on the odds during the match (e.g. “They started at the game at $1.65 but right now they’re at $3.10!”, “What do you think James Hird? is that value for money?”) and we may even get regular onscreen advertising of singular event odds (eg. “TAB Sportsbet have Thurston at $1.50 to convert”), during the game.

Analysis of the odds will take up more and more of the time during telecasts and preview/review programs.

It’s borders on distraction from the contest now imagine what it will be like then.

When a punter like me thinks the tv advertising for sports betting agencies and odds for matches is over the top we should all take pause and consider what’s best for sport in this country.

After all when you go to the races you place your bet and then you go and watch the race, concentrating on it and the spectacle. The race commentator doesn’t analyse the odds during the race.

2 to 1 on – in the red it is Baz….. Not sure if you have the odds right but it was music to my ears, took me back to the time before digitised bookmaking when the betting ring had some character.