We are through just over a third of the way through this AFL season, and there already is a pretty clear division between the wheat and the chaff.
So far, there are four teams that have separated themselves from the pack. From there, we have an 11-team middle class, and then an obvious bottom three in Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast.
Of the current top eight, who are the likeliest to claim premiership glory come September?
The 2021 premiers have the most talented list in the AFL. They’re second for total points, first in inside 50s, and first in metres gained this season. At the other end of the field, they’re a top-five defence by points conceded, and are second in the league in intercept possessions.
Even with a few injuries over the season, the 6-2 Dees are sitting second on the ladder.
So, why am I a bit tepid? Is it because they just went life and death with Gold Coast? Is it because they don’t have an alpha key forward? Does it even matter that they don’t?
I’ve got no idea. A big part of me thinks that they have a touch of the Jordan Peeles to them. They burst onto the serious scene with Get Out, and they just haven’t hit the heights since. They’ve not even been bad. It’s just that they’re not as good as we’d hoped.
In any case, if I were handicapping, the Dees would be the favourite at this point in the season.
I have long likened Brisbane to a Mission: Impossible movie. Incredibly fun to watch, run by a problematic individual, but ultimately never going to win anything meaningful.
But maybe this season is different?
Josh Dunkley has been an extraordinary addition for the Lions, making up for all of the grunt that Mitch Robinson brought before he retired, but bringing infinitely more polish and infinitely less vlogging.
Additionally, Jack Gunston has brought a stabilising presence to that forward line. Where once Lions’ attack was inconsistent outside of Charlie Cameron, the arrival of Gunston has everything feeling like a safer proposition.
Statistically, they’re basically the same team that they have been for the entire Chris Fagan era: high-scoring, dominant around the ball, and good enough defensively, but I do wonder if their additions should be enough to make them the second-flag favourite in a competition that is begging for someone to announce themselves as the team to beat.
Charlie Cameron of the Lions celebrates a goal. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
I cannot believe how good Collingwood is.
Last season they were the 2022/23 Minnesota Vikings. Fluke artists. I thought, based on my rudimentary understanding of natural regression to the mean, they would start losing close games and, as a consequence, just not be as good of a side this year.
Well, I was wrong. They are better.
They are first in inside 50s, second in contested ball, and fifth in clearances in the league. They sit fourth in scoring and boast the second-best defence. Beyond all of that, they play the most intoxicating brand of footy in the game when it’s time to turn it on.
When you have a lead against them, trying to defend that league must be like trying outrun the wave from The Perfect Storm… just impossible.
It is once again hard to mount a statistical case for the Pies winning the flag. They are middle of the pack in most areas above the above ones, which of course are the ones that really matter.
Beyond that, the Grand Final is played at the MCG. The Pies have 15 of their last 16 games this season there. Handy.
I wrote that Geelong’s glorious era was just about done when they were 0-3 and last on the ladder, their premiership defence going as well as Wayne Carey’s latest PR campaign.
While I maintain that the Cats are unlikely to win the premiership the year after having done what looked like their last job in 2022, they are still clearly one of the four biggest contenders, boasting perhaps the most impressive statistical profile of anyone in the AFL.
I can’t see Geelong winning. But I can definitely see them winning more than the rest of this motley crew.
You could throw a blanket over the top four, really, and put them however you want. But rest of the current eight are all various degrees of no chance.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
I’m not really sure what Ken Hinkley has to do to prove himself. There is a Twitter account that tweets every day asking if he has been sacked yet. He has once again been on Caroline Wilson’s chopping block this year. It seems almost impossible that David Koch could hate Ken even more than he already does.
At this point Ken might as well have a dip at Kochie’s daughter. What’s the difference at this point?
Port is pretty good. They currently sit 5th with a 6-2 record and have embraced the high-pressure, low-disposal game that seems to win premierships lately. This year they rank 17th in total disposals per game,but first in tackles, fourth in clearances and sitt well above league average in terms of turnover differential.
The Power aren’t a great side, but this isn’t a season for great sides. They’re a good side who will give anyone a run for their money on a given week and they have a culture that can bring in a malcontent like Jason Horne-Francis, support him, and turn him into the player that North Melbourne knew he would be.
I ask again. What more does Ken have to do?
A bit like Michael Fassbender, I just can’t quit the Bulldogs. They are statistically not a great side, despite having a few very good players. Coach Luke Beveridge, who was once hailed as a genius, now appears closer to being a Kendall Roy-type figure if Kendall had a single actual success in his life, and got the most aggressive veneers known to man.
A big part of me wonders if the Bulldogs aren’t that good because Beveridge is blinding the players: he didn’t actually pick all 15 of those talls in the first few weeks, it was just that nobody could read the team sheet.
Notwithstanding the breathing mid-life crisis that they have at head coach (I hope Bevo has a convertible. I bet he does. He’d keep his skateboard next to it), the Bulldogs have one of the better spines in footy, at least as far as the game’s middle class goes. That alone is often enough to figure around September. It helps when you have the game’s best player in Marcus Bontempelli as well.
I know I have the Bulldogs too high, but I just can’t help myself.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The Saints should be a spot higher. I know.
They are second on the ladder and have the best percentage in the AFL. They are unbelievable on the rebound and have clearly the best defence in the game. They also have the third-best points differential in the competition, which says that, even if they don’t score heavily, they score enough.
All of this is with an extremely injured list and a bunch of kids coming through and having incredible seasons.
Ross Lyon has lifted all players at St Kilda, even those that most would consider less talented. But the game is still about the players on the park. Even with the Saints’ injured starters coming back, I truly think there is just a talent difference between them and the big contenders; at some point, that matters.
I do wrestle with that concept, though. Maybe the Saints are just as talented as the really good teams, but the players just aren’t that famous? Before Succession, nobody knew who Kieran Culkin was and everyone knew who Vin Diesel was. One is clearly more talented than the other, and the answer isn’t the famous guy.
Part of me wonders if the Saints are following the recipe that so many of the greatest TV shows, from The Sopranos, to The Wire, to Succession have followed. Find some ultra-talented, not overly famous people and put them in an exceptional system.
Let’s see how far they can go, and how quickly they can do it.
Michael Voss appears to have gone to the Coach Mike Budenholzer School of Adjustments. The one and only lesson at that school is “Don’t Make Any Adjustments”.
Can’t get the ball forward? Well, we’d best not move one of the two highly mobile key forwards up ground to try and provide a chop out. That would leave us failing the first lesson!
Patrick Cripps getting brutalised by Josh Dunkley? He’ll work it out. Why would we throw him to the forward line, at least to get Dunkley out of the game for a bit? That would be an adjustment, idiot.
Try and get a bit faster around the middle? No way!
The Blues are easy to play against because Michael Voss refuses to change anything.
I hear they have started to call him Missionary Michael. He just hates changing it up.
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.
Thoughts, Crows fans?
Poor Luke had best get used to this!
A bit lucky for the Lion?
Bayley Fritsch should become an even more important player from a structural perspective, given key forward Jacob van Rooyen will be unavailable due to concussion.
Tom Hawkins returns to familiar surroundings of Geelong - but is it the tonic he needs to regain some of his confidence back after a goalless four games.
Following in the lead of competitions like the NRL, NFL and NBA, the Australian Football League is considering introducing a radical plan to present…
