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The Doncaster Handicap is Australia’s richest race over the classic distance of one mile. Join us on The Roar from 3.45pm AEST for a full preview of the race and live blog.
As one of the most anticipated races of the Australian calendar over 1600m and attracting a field of versatile horses, the Doncaster is the highlight of the autumn for many racing purists.
This year’s edition his highlighted by wonder colt Pierro, who is still unbeaten in Sydney. The three-year-old continues to defy his age by taking older horses and does so here once again.
This, however, will be the biggest test of his career.
The bookies have been in full voice throughout the week declaring Pierro, the short price favourite, as the worst possible result for them due to masses of money punted on the Lonhro colt earlier in the year.
This is a big danger sign for any public relations aficionados with an interest in racing.
The odds of this race are completely stacked against Gai Waterhouse’s colt everywhere except on the betting markets.
Asked to carry second top weight, 57kg, under handicap conditions, no three year old has ever successfully carried the weight to victory in the Doncaster.
The best form guide to Pierro in this race lies in top weight, Shoot Out.
The pair have met each other twice. They met in their last starts in the George Ryder Stakes where Pierro finished 1.2 lengths ahead of Shoot Out, but was carrying 2.5kg less. Here in the Doncaster Pierro carries just 1kg less.
A common rule of weights is that one kilogram equates to two lengths, which does not look good for Pierro.
The other time they raced was the Cox Plate under weight-for-age conditions and Pierro carried 9.5kg less. In that race, Pierro finished just half a length ahead of Shoot Out.
So if Shoot Out is rated a better horse in this race than Pierro, does he go one better than his runner up performance, carrying 56.5kg, in this race last year?
It takes freakishly good horses to win the Doncaster as top weight and several good milers have come in better at the weights.
Winner of the Group 1 Coolmore and Queen of the Turf in her last two starts, Appearance could be a big danger carrying just 53.5kg. As the in-form mare (beyond Black Caviar) of the country, the Commands mare just held on for victory in the Queen of the Turf over 1500m.
The mare she just held at bay in that race, Red Tracer, is also in today’s field but has drawn the car park. In a large field, the widest gate at Randwick over a 1600m race is a disaster for Red Tracer, who has been in scintillating form this season.
Finishing no worse than second in his four starts, Red Tracer is the horse to be on in the wet and would be given much more respect from the bookies had she drawn an inside gate.
Another three year old in the field has come in much better at the weights than Pierro. Storm Queen Stakes winner Norzita has been allocated just 53kg and is a hot chance.
The only issue is how she will adapt to stepping down in distance for this after running 2000m in her last start.
This race is full of smokeys, whose prices have been inflated due to the amount of attention given to Pierro.
The Ajax Stakes over 1500m, which was run two weeks ago, should be a good form race on paper and Lightinthenite, who finished fourth in the Ajax, was winding up as the crossed the line.
Having run first up in the Ajax, the Galileo gelding has been set for this race and could surprise a few by figuring in the places.
Monton also comes out of the Ajax, where he finished third, but is coming to the end of his preparation.
Sydney local Secret Admirer has finally found a race where she comes in well at the weights, after continually just missing victory under weight-for-age condition but has also been hurt by the barrier draw, jumping from 19.
Despite being in very mediocre form, Solzhenitsyn has been forgiven by the bookies when he finished last in the George Ryder.
Returning to the mile under handicap, Solzhenitsyn won the Toorak Handicap in the spring under identical conditions and will run a big race if you want to believe the bookies and forgive his last runs.
The Doncaster always throws up big surprises and that is the beauty of handicap races.
Running a mile does not allow us to discount sprinters or declare the distance too short for stayers.
Pierro will start the favourite but nowhere near the $2 price which he opened at midweek and I believe he has been weighted out of this.
Tips
Alfred Chan
1. Norzita
2. Red Tracer
3. Appearance
4. Shoot Out
Justin Cinque
1. Appearance
2. Lightinthenite
3. Pierro
4. Norzita
Cameron Rose
1. Secret Admirer
2. Pierro
3. Appearance
4. Shoot Out
Andrew Hawkins
1. Red Tracer
2. Appearance
3. Pierro
4. Sacred Falls
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