Glancing through the history books, there’s a fair bit of truth in the oft-heard statement you must finish in the top four to have any hope of winning the AFL premiership. Top four hopefuls Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs take note, as the run home to the finals heats up.
Indeed, since the AFL revised the McIntyre Final Eight System in 2000, no team has ever won the flag from outside the top four.
In fact, since the change, no team has ever made the Grand Final from outside the top four.
Adelaide were the last team to win a premiership from beyond the top four, coming from fifth to triumph in 1998, while Carlton were the last team to make the GF from outside the top four, when they stormed into the decider from sixth in 1999.
But it’s no coincidence we haven’t seen anything like that since the structure of the top eight was revised in 2000.
Nowadays, the system firmly favours those who finish in the top four, as they win the right to have a crack at hosting the preliminary final and, of course, are guaranteed a second chance (at home) should they lose first up.
On the other hand, finish outside the top four and you’ve got to win four games in a row to claim the flag. Tough ask!
So as we turn for the final sprint of the regular season with seven rounds to go after the completion of Round 15, it’s worth pondering who can make the top four when we analyse premiership contenders.
It appears pretty set in stone that Geelong (48 points), St Kilda (48) and Collingwood (46) will make the top four and reach the qualifying finals.
For Fremantle (40) and the Western Bulldogs (36), though, their respective premiership tilts hang in the balance with their top four aspirations.
Beyond the Dogs in fifth, are Sydney (32), Carlton (32) and Hawthorn (32) who all seem long shots for the top four with weaker percentages and unconvincing form, although the Hawks appear the most capable of threatening out of these three after an impressive recent run.
Focusing back on the Dockers and Dogs who, considering their current positions on the ladder (separated by only four points, with the Doggies enjoying a 12% better percentage), could be set for a battle royale for fourth spot.
This will prove especially important for Footscray, who came into the 2010 regular season as one of the genuine flag favourites after winning the NAB Cup with new arrival Barry Hall starring.
With Victorian sides likely to occupy the top three spots, the Dogs will know they’ll have a travel-free run in the finals if they can make the top four. After all, it’s likely this will be the ageing Doggies’ final shot at a flag during their current premiership window.
Looking at the run home, you’d have to back Fremantle to win all their home games (against Melbourne, West Coast, Sydney and Carlton).
But the Dockers’ loss to Richmond on Saturday night, following the season-ending injury to gun onballer Michael Barlow, has cast doubts on their ability to keep their dream year going.
The Dogs, on the other hand, have a bit of travel to do, with Port Adelaide in Darwin next up, along with trips to Adelaide and Sydney to come.
But Footscray will surely enter the majority of their remaining games as favourites, except probably the Round 20 clash with reigning premiers Geelong which will be difficult.
Perhaps the decisive game will come in Round 17 when the Western Bulldogs and Fremantle meet at Etihad Stadium.
The Dogs, who in the past have loved the indoor confines of Etihad, have lost their four times this season, while Freo have broken their Docklands duck with wins over Essendon and Carlton this season.
Whichever way it goes, as history will tell, there’s a lot up for grabs with a top four spot evidently so important to a premiership tilt.
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