The Melbourne Cup Carnival is one of the best in the world of racing and this Saturday it all starts with Derby Day. Nine races, all blacktype, with four of those Group l events.
I’ll preview all four majors in race order, starting off with the hugely competitive Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m).
I’m leaning towards Astern. I wasn’t convinced about his Golden Rose (1400m) win given he had all the luck, but the form has been well and truly franked via Impending, Divine Prophet and Yankee Rose.
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His effort in the Roman Consul (1200m) was enormous given the slow tempo left him with very little winning claims. Jump out last week was sharp and he looked to handle the straight course well.
Extreme Choice does look the logical threat but there are some reservations. Take nothing away from what he did in the Moir (1000m), beating home the worlds best sprinter Chautauqua, but keep in mind that horse failed in the Manikato and the overall form from the Moir has failed to stand up. Since then, he beat Astern in that above jump out mentioned above and looked to go about his business nicely. He’ll be up near the speed and giving his all in what could be his grand final before the breeding barn.
All you can do is win and that is what Russian Revolution has done so far in his career, the latest win coming in the Roman Consul where he was given a lovely on speed steer from McEvoy, controlling the race from the front and giving nothing else a look in. He too ran in that jump out and was impressive to the eye. He seems the one at generous odds.
Astern on top, to beat Extreme Choice, Russian Revolution and Star Turn.
Outside Winx, the best fillies and mares Australia has to offer will step out in the Myer Classic (1600m).
I think the play here is the Kris Lees trained Danish Twist. I thought her effort in the Tristarc (1400m) was clearly the run of the race, and perhaps the day given she was back near last in the run and they ran along at a crawling speed, so she really had no right to finish as close as she did. Flemington mile appears as though it will suit her perfectly and she gets the services of Joao Moreira.
The local form mare in terms is Don’t Doubt Mamma. She has been outstanding this spring, and cemented her spot as one of the hardest to beat after a commanding performance in the Stocks Stakes (1600m) at the Valley, sprinting hard from off the speed and winning with real authority. Not sure weight-for-age is her go against the best of the best, but you have to respect what she has done.
The knockout chance is the Team Hawkes trained Euro Angel. She did a huge job when resuming at Warwick Farm, making a 700m run to only go down narrowly before going to the mares race on Blue Sapphire Day at Caulfield where she was given a lovely run just off the speed before Dunn peeled her out and she let down hard to put the race away in a couple of strides. The form out of that held up OK at the Valley last week, and this mare does give the impression she’ll save her best for big tracks.
Going with Danish Twist, ahead of Don’t Doubt Mamma, Euro Angel and First Seal.
The feature event of the day is the Victoria Derby (2500m). I got on Sacred Elixir after his first up win for the Derby, and did the same after his failure in the Caulfield Guineas. The blinkers came off in the Vase on Saturday and he reacted to that gear change, appearing to travel sweetly in the run and really only need normal luck to win, and despite not getting that, he was still too good. He’ll eat up the 2500m here and landed barrier one. He looks a good thing.
The wide gate does make things tricky for Rocketeer, but there was a lot to like about his effort in the Caulfield Classic (2000m) where he had really solid market support late and savaged the line nearer the inside to run a close up second to Good Standing, who finished alongside Sacred Elixir in the Guineas if that is a guide for you. Not sure how much is left in the tank for Rocketeer, but I can’t ignore him.
If there is going to be a blowout at odds, I think it could come courtesy of Kent. I’ve been on him every start this time in and he just hasn’t quite got the job done, but he has been a real eye catcher. Forget the barrier trial that was the Caulfield Classic. He got back near last in a slowly run race and had no hope. Draws a lovely gate here and I think he can be more effective.
Sacred Elixir a special, over Rocketeer and Kent.
The final major on the Derby is the Stakes race but formally known as the Cantala Stakes (1600m).
Le Romain’s effort in the Epsom was enormous given he was without cover and up front chasing the tearaway leader Fabrizio. He was the lone survivor of the first few and was only caught the final 100m. Bowman has plenty of options from the gate and he rates highly to my eye.
I think He’s Our Rokkii is the pick of the Victorians. He comes through the traditional path, culminating with a smart win in the Toorak (1600m), aided by a peach from Dunn, settling just off the speed before shoving into the clear and finishing his race off hard to get the win. Not sure how strong that form is, but all you can do is win and that is what this horse has done.
Very interested to see how Thunder Fantasy goes here. He did a remarkable job to win first up at Randwick carrying in excess of 62kg, first up off a tendon and back from Hong Kong. Anthony Cummings doesn’t mind throwing them in quickly, but from all reports, his work on Tuesday was very sharp. I am not going to underestimate him here.
In a tough race it’s Le Romain on top, to beat He’s Our Rokkii, Thunder Fantasy and The United States.
As for the remainder of the card:
1. Bezel
2. Tiamo Grace
3. Super Cash
4. Oceanographer
9. We’ve Got This
Don’t forget to check twitter @AdamPage1991 for more tips right across the weekend.
Good luck and happy punting!
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