The Victoria Derby (2500m) is always a fascinating contest because it’s a real unknown with every runner not being tested at the trip, with most barely running beyond 2000m.
It can be tricky to find the winner, so here is my look at the Derby.
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Speed
Beachwood is first emergency but if he gains a start he leads for fun. If he doesn’t run, Greycliffe probably takes it up. Ace High won’t be far away, but they want cover, as will Weather With You. Tangled is drawn awkwardly but is hard fit so Blake Shinn may look to chance his arm and go forward before the first turn.
History
The Vase last week has been the dominant form reference for the Derby since the turn of the century but there are no runners backing. The Geelong Classic was used by Preferment in 2014 to win the Derby, and we have several runners from that race running here.
Won can’t win?
I can’t put a line through plenty, so I’ll just post the numbers. In my opinion, 4, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17.
The A-grade chances
This is a race between two standouts. The Group 1 form with Ace High reads very well. Yes, he fell in, but he set a really good speed and sitting him on speed isn’t his ideal racing pattern. The other key chance is Weather With You. Others are looking at Astoria and Ocean’s Fourteen with upside/weight pull, but this bloke did plenty wrong yet still won. Just needs to relax.
Next tier
Tangled has that narrow second to Ace High in the Spring Champion next to his name as well as a second to Cliff’s Edge, who ran second to Aloisia last week in the Vase. That form reads well. Main Stage back to Flemington will be perfect. Just draws a sticky gate. Sully has the Spring Champion form as well as a touch of brilliance. Ocean’s Fourteen does have the upside and he is racing as if 2500m will be no issue.
The verdict
If you back either Ace High or Weather With You, you’ll return a profit.The nod just goes to Ace High on form. He had a fab win in the Spring Champion despite being ridden upside down. He’ll get a suck run off the pace here and with that more conservative ride, 2500m is no issue.
Weather With You was outstanding in winning the Geelong Classic. Did plenty wrong but still found plenty. Just needs to relax in the blinkers. I’ve got him at $26 prior to his resumption so here’s hoping.
Sully was very one paced in the Spring Champion but he fought on strongly and returning to Melbourne could spark him into action. Ocean’s Fourteen is the improver from the Geelong Classic and you have to respect anything the stable is saddling up.
Ace High to win the Derby, ahead of Weather With You, Sully and Ocean’s Fourteen.
$100 betting strategy
$30 each way Ace High at $5.50/$2.10
$20 each way Weather With You at $8/$2.60
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