With much speculation on how the battle between Brad Wiggins and Cadel Evans is going to pan out in recent weeks, I think the openness of this race has been overlooked.
I liken it to the 2006 Tour, the year after Lance Armstrong “retired”. Without him there, there was no definitive favourite or target on the mountain stages for people to work off.
As it turned out, this created chaos and allowed Oscar Pereiro to get into a breakaway that took half an hour out of the peleton and was the catalyst for him winning the Tour.
Such a thing could happen again this year in the absence of Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck, but trying to pick a winner doing the same thing as Pereiro is like trying to win the lottery. So, instead, how about throwing up a third option that many are dismissing already.
Alberto Contador’s attempt at winning the Giro-Tour double last year ultimately failed for two reasons: (1) the Giro d’Italia took too much out of him, but more importantly, (2) he was stripped of his Giro for doping and didn’t win the Tour.
This year, Ryder Hesjedal and his Garmin-Barracuda team will attempt the same feat. At first glance, plenty have dismissed it, usually with the excuse of “well, Contador couldn’t do it so Hesjedal has no chance”. I was one of those initial doubters.
But now, having seen the team that Garmin-Barracuda are sending to the Tour, I’m not so sure. Like Wiggins, if Hesjedal was going to have any chance of winning a Tour, this year is likely his best shot, given the time trial-heavy course and the depleted field of favourites.
And when you analyse the support he’s going to get, you realise just how dangerous he will be. Garmin-Barracuda’s Tour de France roster is as follows:
Ryder Hesjedal, Tom Danielson, Christian Vande Velde, Dan Martin, David Millar, Tyler Farrar, Robbie Hunter, Dave Zabriskie, Johan Vansummeren
With Hesjedal as captain, Danielson and Vande Velde will be trusted lieutenants in the mountains. Danielson has had four top-10 finishes at Grand Tours before, including 8th at last year’s Tour.
Vande Velde has had two top-10’s at the Tour but a wretched run of luck in recent years has crippled his chances of contending.
Dan Martin will likely be his main support in the mountains. Martin’s specialist climbing abilities won him a stage at last year’s Vuelta and helped him finish 13th overall. He’s going to be a huge asset to Hesjedal in the hills.
Add Zabriskie, Millar and Vansummeren to the mix and Garmin-Barracuda have a potent team to help protect Hesjedal and deliver him to the mountains safely.
The other great thing about Garmin’s squad is that they do have a fail-safe should the Hesjedal plan fall through for any reason. Tyler Farrar will be gunning for stage wins against the likes of Goss, Renshaw and Cavendish, so should Hesjedal fall over at any point, they could quickly change their focus to a potent lead-out train.
Its just a pity that this year’s Tour doesn’t feature a TTT as I’m sure Garmin would have been at least in the top 3 (perhaps behind Sky and BMC), if not winners.
Garmin are not lacking in strong support for Hesjedal. The million-dollar question is “has he pulled up well (i.e. better than Contador) from a challenging Giro d’Italia triumph?” If so, he’s a worthy adversary for Wiggins and Evans. And he may just do something that hasn’t been done since 1998.
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